ksstormhunter wrote:I got Ft. Drum on tap for tommorrow, which should encompass tues and wed.
When this evening will you be doing Drum? Have to get up at like 2 am for range tomorrow
Moderator: S2k Moderators
ksstormhunter wrote:I got Ft. Drum on tap for tommorrow, which should encompass tues and wed.
Stephanie wrote:OMG!! Everyone in the Midwest especially be careful!!! I'm having images of the ice storm that hit the Northeast and Canada a couple of years ago.
CrazyC83 wrote:Stephanie wrote:OMG!! Everyone in the Midwest especially be careful!!! I'm having images of the ice storm that hit the Northeast and Canada a couple of years ago.
That would have been January 1998.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 PM UPDATE...EVERYTHING CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THE MAJOR
STORM...WITH ONLY REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SLEET/FRZG
RAIN GETS. ALL GRIDS LOOK FINE JUST TWEAKED TEMPS AND REPUBLISHED.
DELAYED TIMING MAYBE AN HOUR...STILL LOOKS LIKE MAIN SNOW SURGE
IN MDNT TO 6-7 AM FOR BUF AND AN HOUR LATER AT ROC. WILL REVISIT
ALL AROUND 10 PM. PREV DISC FOLLOWS IN FULL...
IN A NUTSHELL...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF OUR
WELL-ADVERTISED MAJOR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING AND
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE ON THURSDAY AS ITS
ENERGY TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE FOR DAYS NOW...THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF LIFT. THIS LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A NUMBER
OF FORCING MECHANISMS WHICH INCLUDE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AND
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF AN IMPRESSIVE COUPLED UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. ADDING ALL OF THIS UP...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CERTAINTY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUPPORTING QPF
TOTALS OF AT LEAST AN INCH...IF NOT A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT.
AS FOR TIMING...WE EXPECT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AS EARLY AS 7-8 PM
THIS EVENING...THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS BETWEEN 10-11
PM...AND THE WATERTOWN AREA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...THEN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY FOR A WHILE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DRY SLOTTING WORKS IN ALOFT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
CENTER...INCREASING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS SECOND SURGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
WHAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH REGARD TO PTYPE...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENT...THOUGH A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO SYRACUSE. IN
THIS AREA...STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW /GIVE OR TAKE A
COUPLE OF INCHES/ WILL BE LIKELY...WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT AND A HALF
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITHIN THIS SAME
AREA...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AND THE PRECIPITATION TEMPORARILY LIGHTENS...SO HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS TO THE FORECAST.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAT INCREASINGLY AMOUNTS OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES ON A NOW
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH WARMING IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
EXPERIENCE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WILL THEN LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOMEWHAT REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4-7"...IT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING. AS MUCH AS A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE RENEWED
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW RESULTS IN A CHANGEOVER BACK
TO SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS STORM WILL OF BE THE
WINDS. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE
STORM WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW
TONIGHT...THEN WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WILL
LEAD TO SIMILAR PROBLEMS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...LEADING TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests