SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... st=ob&ut=1

[neospaceblue]

Has any storm this powerful ever originated from the Fiji region before?

[Crostorm]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Melville to Sarina are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:12am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Richmond.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the remaining inland parts west to the Northern
Territory border and north of Winton.

At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be 445
kilometres east of Cairns and 455 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving
west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE.

THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.

TC Yasi, CATEGORY 5, will continue to move in a west-southwesterly direction
during the day. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast in the Innisfail area
at about midnight.

Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and
Ayr are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEA LEVEL RISE [i.e. storm
tide] as the cyclone approaches, crosses the coast and moves inland. The sea is
likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the
normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, STRONG CURRENTS and FLOODING of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by authorities.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr that are currently developing on coastal
islands, are forecast to develop about the coast by late morning and about the
tropical interior overnight.

Between Cape Tribulation and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with
gusts in excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and early evening and VERY
DESTRUCTIVE with gusts up to 300 km/hr between Cairns and Ingham during the
evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE
winds can also occur on the seaward side of hills to the north of the cyclone
and are also forecast to reach the Atherton Tablelands.

Winds are forecast to ease about the east coast during Thursday morning as the
cyclone moves inland.

FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Richmond should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People about the remaining inland parts west to the Northern Territory border
and north of Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 149.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 922 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Wednesday 02 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Crostorm]

Latest Weather Observations for Flinders Reef
991.4hPa spd kt 54 spd gust 74

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4290.shtml

LIVE broadcast from Cairns, Edge Hill
http://en.justin.tv/cycloneyasi#/w/821124144

[Tom8]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

Microwave Imagery at CIMSS
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html





Live coverage
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/fl ... 5997552623



Good night
--------
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MKkr_1Kqcw

[KWT]

Looks impressive, probably 110kts IMO sustained 1 min winds, so its going to rank up there as one of the biggies thats looking quite likely.

Just be thankful the inner core never totally got its act on like it could have, as bad as this is, it could easily have been a 130-140kts type system rather then a 110-120kts type system...as bad as that is of course!

[Eleyan]

Largest Cyclone event in Australia since 1918.

QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA - CURRENT CYCLONE THREAT IMMINENT
Severe TC Yasi Cat5, extremely serious threat between Cairns and townsville.
TC Yasi Will landfall between Innisfail and Cardwell. Very high seas, and dangerous
Sea swells even down to the Sunshine coast. Gust up to 295klm/hr and some higher.
Higher tides up to 20 feet (6+1/2 to 7metres) Becoming more dangerous into the next 24hrs.
Sea levels building over a number of hours and height increasing with wave activity.
Mandatory Evac for all low lying areas.
Last chance to leave before rapidly moving water inundates stipulated storm flood areas.
Around Georgetown approx 9am tomorrow morning Cat 3 is expected.
Tablelands and hinterland and towns to the west will experience cyclonic conditions.
Cyclone has now passed over Willis Island. There is now no TC measuring equipment
from that location. All staff were evacuated. Power outages around Eire.
Some reports of large trees coming down in Eire. 9,000+ currently in Evac centres.
Evac by plane complete of all hospital dependent patients within next hour (by 1:30pm)
Winds currently around 95klm/hr in coastal regions.
http://www.bom.gov.au

[Chacor]

JTWC had 130 kts at 1800 UTC, waiting to see what they go with at 0000 UTC warning.

[KWT]

Wow are JWTC really that high...gotta be frank, it doesn't IMO look like a 130kts type system to me, the eyewall just can't hold solid for long enough, hence why I think its probably a weaker system then some think it is, a classic big system with a low pressure and very spread out winds...IMO again I'd never go above 120kts at the moment until it actually holds that inner core and a solid eyewall for more then 2-3hrs at a time...

That being said at 18z it did look the part so I spose thats where that comes from.

[Chacor]

JTWC 00Z is out. 125 kt gusting to 150 kt. JTWC has it landfalling around 10 pm local time tonight at 130 kt gusting 160 kt. Even more impressive, JTWC has it maintaining hurricane intensity for 24 hours inland.

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.7S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.9S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.6S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 149.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC TRACKED OVER WILLIS ISLAND AT AROUND
2200Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS LOGGED IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO OVER 100 KNOTS. AN IMPRESSIVE EYEWALL HAD BEEN VISIBLE ON
THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR THAT HAS SINCE BECOME INOPERABLE. THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE WITHIN RANGE OF THE CAIRNS RADAR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL PASS BETWEEN HOLMES REEF AND FLINDERS REEF BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAIRNS. THE TC SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (OR POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SOME) BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 115 TO 127
KNOTS. YASI WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR OF AUSTRALIA AFTER
COMING ASHORE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.//

[Chacor]

JTWC's operational running best-track lowered its intensity estimate to 125 kt at 18z and holds it there.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the pressure around 934mb (a guess based on the surface observations), its less-than-perfect microwave and radar presentation and its size and structure, I would guess this storm is weaker than Dvorak normal estimates as well. My intensity guess right now is 110 kt (1-min sustained). However, despite that, it is still an extremely dangerous storm.

[Chacor]

Crazy, I think with the high traffic this page is getting you should be including the disclaimer with your posts.

Anyway, BOM and JTWC differ significantly after landfall.

BOM has the storm weakening quickly, down to 30 kt (tropical low) by 03/1200 UTC, while JTWC has it down to only 65 kt (cat 1 hurricane) at the same time.

[KWT]

Well its probably closer to the mark, still think its a little high but then again just seen the latest Vis imagery and its looking a little more impressive then I first gave it credit for.

Either way its clearly a monster system that is causing to be causing some severe damage.

Just hope people have paid attention to all the warnings that have been put out there...

[Chacor]

Latest ob from Flinders Reef (30 mins ago):
02/1154 local: 55G69KT SSE; 987.9 hPa

Latest ob from Holmes Reef (25 mins ago):
02/1200 local: 45G58KT S; 988.5 hPa

[cycloneye]

Largest Cyclone event in Australia since 1918.

QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA - CURRENT CYCLONE THREAT IMMINENT
Severe TC Yasi Cat5, extremely serious threat between Cairns and townsville.
TC Yasi Will landfall between Innisfail and Cardwell. Very high seas, and dangerous
Sea swells even down to the Sunshine coast. Gust up to 295klm/hr and some higher.
Higher tides up to 20 feet (6+1/2 to 7metres) Becoming more dangerous into the next 24hrs.
Sea levels building over a number of hours and height increasing with wave activity.
Mandatory Evac for all low lying areas.
Last chance to leave before rapidly moving water inundates stipulated storm flood areas.
Around Georgetown approx 9am tomorrow morning Cat 3 is expected.
Tablelands and hinterland and towns to the west will experience cyclonic conditions.
Cyclone has now passed over Willis Island. There is now no TC measuring equipment
from that location. All staff were evacuated. Power outages around Eire.
Some reports of large trees coming down in Eire. 9,000+ currently in Evac centres.
Evac by plane complete of all hospital dependent patients within next hour (by 1:30pm)
Winds currently around 95klm/hr in coastal regions.
http://www.bom.gov.au

First,welcome to Storm2k. I merged the thread you made to the Yasi thread.

[KWT]

How strong was Larry when it eventually came into landfall by the way guys?

[Chacor]

Larry was a Cat 4 at landfall, peak gust measured at Flinders Reef for that storm was 113 kt.

[KWT]

Looks like thats the benchmark for this system then, I suspect winds values maybe quite similar to what they were with Larry, but the max wind radius looks bigger then Larry right now.

[Chacor]

JTWC 00z warning