Very interesting surface observations-not normal for a wave

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:16 pm

Check theses observation and if one looks at a map and where the center may be then something is going on...folks this is just not your average tropical wave passing by

Updated: 5:39 PM AST on August 22, 2003
Observed at Las Americas, Dominican Republic
Temperature N/A ?F / -
Humidity N/A%
Dew Point -
Wind NNW at 9 mph / 14.5 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.88 in / 1012 hPa (Steady)
Conditions Heavy Thunderstorm Rain
Visibility -

Updated: 5:00 PM AST on August 22, 2003
Observed at Herrera, Dominican Republic
Temperature 75 ?F / 24 ?C
Humidity 94%
Dew Point 73 ?F / 23 ?C
Wind NNW at 9 mph / 14.5 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.85 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
Conditions Mostly Cloudy

Updated: 5:00 PM AST on August 22, 2003
Observed at Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic
Temperature N/A ?F / -
Humidity N/A%
Dew Point -
Wind South at 12 mph / 19.3 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.91 in / 1013 hPa (Steady)
Conditions Light Rain

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:18 pm

AGREED!! :o

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:38 pm

YES and it looks just as good or better on satellite as it ever did when it was a TD .Who knows maybe it never really had a true LLC. I have a feeling the game isn't over yet.Once Hispanola does it dirty work I think this will become Td 9 again and more:):)

mf_dolphin · #4 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:41 pm

Ameriwx2003, if I remember right the TD designation was based mainly on a single ship report of a west wind and the satellite presentation. You may have a very valid point on whether we ever had a real LLC. Anyway, there's plenty of time for that after Hispanola for big problems....

ameriwx2003 · #5 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:46 pm

Marshall. yes it was one ship and the satellite presentation that gave it the upgrade. I guess its Da*ned if you do or Da*ned if you don't being a TPC forecaster. I agree I still think there will be a storyline yet to play for our Strong Wave once it gets done with Hispanola.

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 5:50 pm

Sorry, I don't see anything significant in those observations. There are thunderstorms all over the area, seabreeze boundaries, and outflow boundaries. You need to look at 6-12 hours of observations and watch for trends. Look at MDSD's obs (Santo Domingo) through the day (below). Note the "land breeze" in the morning from the north, followed by the sea breeze from the south at 1554Z, then light-moderate NE-ENE flow as what's left of TD 9 approaches. Thunderstorms moved in (north of the station) and MDSD reported a north wind (outflow boundary, most likely) for less than an hour, then back to SE winds at 12kts.

I know it's hard to be objective when you just can't wait for the next storm to develop, but you have to look at everything, not just what you want to see. TD 9 isn't nearly dead yet, but it's not likely to resurrect over the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

MDSD| |222200|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|120|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |222150|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|120|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |222139|999.0F|999.0F|999.0%|330|008|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Heavy Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |222100|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|360|008|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |222050|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|360|008|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |222000|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|020|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|In the vicinity Rain
MDSD| |221900|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|020|012|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|In the vicinity Rain
MDSD| |221850|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|020|012|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|In the vicinity Rain
MDSD| |221800|77.0F|77.0F|100.0%|020|016|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|Thunderstorms Rain
MDSD| |221726|999.0F|999.0F|999.0%|020|014|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|Thunderstorms
MDSD| |221700|78.0F|73.0F|83.6%|020|012|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|Thunderstorms
MDSD| |221616|999.0F|999.0F|999.0%|090|014|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Shower(s) Rain
MDSD| |221615|999.0F|999.0F|999.0%|090|014|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Shower(s) Rain
MDSD| |221600|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|180|010|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|
MDSD| |221554|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|180|010|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|
MDSD| |221500|86.0F|75.0F|70.4%|360|006|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MDSD| |221355|86.0F|75.0F|70.4%|360|006|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MDSD| |221300|80.0F|73.0F|78.8%|360|006|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MDSD| |221200|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|360|006|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MDSD| |221100|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|010|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|
MDSD| |221000|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|010|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:15 pm

There may be local effects too. I wouldn't read into anything too much by those obs. If you go back and look at the last 48 hours...they carry a lot of winds with a northerly component. So...don't get hyped about one or two obs. Here is an example from 2 days ago:
MDSD 210200Z 36006KT 9999 FEW020CB SCT020 27/25 Q1016=
MDSD 210300Z 36006KT 9999 FEW020 27/24 Q1016=
MDSD 210400Z 02005KT 9999 SKC 26/24 Q1016=
MDSD 210500Z 03004KT 9999 SKC 26/24 Q1016=
MDSD 210600Z 36004KT 9999 SKC 26/24 Q1015=

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:36 pm

Another thing to look for are gradual wind changes and not to look at just one observation. If two areas are reporting east winds and a location in the middle is reporting NNW winds, observe the Wx conditions. Observe wind obs. from multiple locations in all directions (as allowable) in relation to the suspected area of lowest pressure ...

SF

weatherlover427 · #9 Postby **weatherlover427** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:40 pm

I don't know how to read the types of obs in the last 3 posts (excluding SF's post). :oops:

Can someone elucidate please?

Thanks.

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:50 pm

Joshua21Young wrote:I don't know how to read the types of obs in the last 3 posts (excluding SF's post). Can someone elucidate please? Thanks.

I posted a decoded METAR observation:

MDSD| |222200|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|120|012|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|Light Thunderstorms Rain

222200 == 22nd of August at 2200 GMT (1700 CDT)

75.0F = temperature
75.0F = dew point
100.0% = Relative Humidity
120 = wind direction - from 120 degrees = SE
012 = wind speed in knots = 13 mph
000 = wind gusts section - no gusts
2147483647.00 = a bunch of strange numbers. Don't know what our decode program did there.
999 = pressure (altimeter setting) = 29.99 inches
BKN = Broken cloud cover (mostly cloudy)

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Aug 23, 2003 12:51 am

I am sure not one of us reading this board believes that this or any other system can develop over Hispaniola or any landmass.

It is easy to see that this area of convection wants to develop into a tropical depression (once again).

There are indications that the wave axis is moving westward along with a good amount of convection in a circular pattern on satellite imagery.

The convection, if not the MLC has been moving more northerly than any other direction in the last few hours.

Very interesting surface observations-not normal for a wave

Very interesting surface observations-not normal for a wave

Nope

Obs

Who is online