Downgraded to an open wave at 5 PM but it may come back

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt4.html

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

Here is the discussion and it may come back to life after all soon.

[Steve Cosby]

This is one of the cases where I have to ask whether Dr. Avilla/NHC is being irresponsible. T-numbers at 2+? Regeneration at any time?

Calling this thing an open wave and essentially dismissing it in one advisory just doesn't jive. They hang on to TS's on land longer than this. Now, it's been dismissed and the TV weathermen will probably dismiss it as well at 5:00/6:00.

The problem I see is that, in the next six hours, the thing could regenerate and go straight to storm status. Why not just carry it through one more advisory? State something like "it has fallen apart. If it doesn't regenerate before the 8:00 advisory, that will be last advisory on this system".

Avilla just constantly seems to be too quick. NHC is not only forecasting these things but also leading the preparations that must accompany tropical storms.

Am I way off base here? Probably...

[ColdFront77]

The wording "if regeneration occurs" in the 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time Advisory makes it sound like the chances aren't all the high.

Those of us that know how close this has gotten to becoming a tropical storm should (hopefully) understand that the chances of development are not that low.



I agree with you 110%, Steve. This system has potential, why downgrade something that has a good enough chance to become a tropical storm; keeping the tropical depression status makes perfect sense.

[Guest]

Perhaps he wants the weekend off like wxman57 wants!!!!!

Time will tell. Once again we are called to have patience until it gets into the GOM.

[Anonymous]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 222025
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS A VIGOROUS MIDDLE-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE...
SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE AT ANY TIME. IN FACT
T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR REFORMATION...AIR FORCE PLANES WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE
SYSTEM. IF REGENERATION OCCURS...WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE REISSUED.

THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA

To me this says it all if they did not expect regeneration of some nature they would not still send the planes out.

[cycloneye]

Yes agree ticka this will be a GOM system down the road so the GOMERS will have another one to deal with this season.

[Rainband]

Perhaps he wants the weekend off like wxman57 wants!!!!!

Time will tell. Once again we are called to have patience until it gets into the GOM.

Or the east coast..too early to tell my locals are watching it..Extended (mon-fri)...
Tropical Depression Nine is the main concern for the extended
forecast. GFS has the system opening up as a wave in the
latest 5 day forecast. Extended models have it sticking around
in the northeast Gulf through the 10 day period. Have chosen a blend
of the nhc's Shorter-term and the long-term models...thus have
stronger northeasterly winds Tuesday afternoon, easterly winds
Wednesday, and southeasterly for Thursday and Friday. Went with
similar rain chances to current forecast because of the persistence
of the tropical moisture in the region. Nudged the high temperatures down a
couple of degrees in case we have extra cloudiness to lower
insolation, but forecast highs are still near climatology.


Marine...no highlights with a fairly light wind pattern into the
weekend. But...as noted above...winds do respond to the tropical
system and increase late in the marine period.

[ColdFront77]

Regeneration at any time can obviously put this as far from the Gulf of Mexico as it is now.

[Scott_inVA]

This is one of the cases where I have to ask whether Dr. Avilla/NHC is being irresponsible. T-numbers at 2+? Regeneration at any time?

Calling this thing an open wave and essentially dismissing it in one advisory just doesn't jive. They hang on to TS's on land longer than this. Now, it's been dismissed and the TV weathermen will probably dismiss it as well at 5:00/6:00.

The problem I see is that, in the next six hours, the thing could regenerate and go straight to storm status. Why not just carry it through one more advisory? State something like "it has fallen apart. If it doesn't regenerate before the 8:00 advisory, that will be last advisory on this system".

Avilla just constantly seems to be too quick. NHC is not only forecasting these things but also leading the preparations that must accompany tropical storms.

Am I way off base here? Probably...

Well, what are they to do? Call it something it's not? They can't carry it as a TD when in fact there is no center...no TD.

Wx classifications have criteria and they can't (legitimately) be fudged. So if it comes back it'll be a TD but it isn't now and, IMO, we shouldn't call it something it is not.

Development has always been forecast to be slow w/this. I was abit perturbed last night when TPC honked "may become a tropical storm Friday". I didn't see that as an option but they did. I haven't agreed with their east and Atl track and have stuck since last Tuesday with my weaker and west ideas. If it does develop it won't be until after clearing Haiti/DR and Cuba. Till then, it is what it is...

Scott

[ColdFront77]

No offense to Steve... but I do agree with you, Scott more.

I perfect understand that without a closed low that it can't be declared a tropical depression.

The reasoning of downgrading it briefly to many people will that it will easily not be upgraded back to tropical depression status. That is where I am coming from and I am sure you agree.

[cycloneye]

This will be a GOM system period.

[ColdFront77]

The system will not be in the Gulf of Mexico at anytime. If and when the soon to be development of this system occurs it will not be in the Gulf yet.

[Steve Cosby]

Well, what are they to do? Call it something it's not? They can't carry it as a TD when in fact there is no center...no TD.

Wx classifications have criteria and they can't (legitimately) be fudged. So if it comes back it'll be a TD but it isn't now and, IMO, we shouldn't call it something it is not.

Development has always been forecast to be slow w/this. I was abit perturbed last night when TPC honked "may become a tropical storm Friday". I didn't see that as an option but they did. I haven't agreed with their east and Atl track and have stuck since last Tuesday with my weaker and west ideas. If it does develop it won't be until after clearing Haiti/DR and Cuba. Till then, it is what it is...

Scott

Scott, they fudge it all the time. If this system was in the middle Atlantic, it would be called a depression or storm and advisories would be continuing. Now that it is close enough to have recon flown, it's treated like the ugly stepsister. Yet, it's close enough to be something that should be flagged to the people in its path.

There was just a whole thread on here about some of the TV weatherdudes and how they had written off this system at one newscast only to eat crow later that night. Same thing will occur here (in the words of Dr. Steve Lyons): "Good News". The proper statement should have been: "The thing may be falling apart. NHC will take one last look at this thing at 8PM and let us know".

See my point? You and I, and the other people on this board, may know to be wary but the average person watching TV news is not going to know to be concerned. I just have a problem with going from 30 to 0 when the thing is so close to staying alive during the next six hours.

[ColdFront77]

Another thing... with weak systems moving more due westerly, this system will not
make it into the Gulf of Mexico if it doesn't strengthen to obtain a northerly component.

[Anonymous]

We need to remember that it can just as easily be upgraded again, as it can be down graded. My opinion is they did this due to the fact that the storm has lost its convection every night I doubt seriously waiting till 8:00P.M. there would have been any significant changes. This storm has acted as if it was nothing but a large thunderstorm when day time heating is lost it looses it's convection also. My point here is TPC can upgrade back to TD#9 if it is needed at anytime who knows an LLC may be forming as we speak.

[Air Force Met]

Steve...the reason they can fudge stuff like that in the mid atlantic is because they do not have planes out there. When you have a plane out there and there is no LLC...you don't fudge it. If they did...every met in the country would be calling them on it (and rightfully so) and they would be a laughing stock...and not doing there jobs. Call it what it is. Right now...it is an open wave and that is what you call it.

Are you a met? If not...I don't think you are qualified to make that call because you don't have the necessary experience in doing it...no offense. It is easy for a non-met to say "do this or that" without realizing what you are really saying. It is like arm-chair qb'ing. It's one thing to look at teh data and say "maybe"...but when the data say it isn't there...you can't really say it is. That would be like issuing a t-storm warning when the skies are clear because of the likely-hood that something might occur.

[Steve Cosby]

Steve...the reason they can fudge stuff like that in the mid atlantic is because they do not have planes out there. When you have a plane out there and there is no LLC...you don't fudge it. If they did...every met in the country would be calling them on it (and rightfully so) and they would be a laughing stock...and not doing there jobs. Call it what it is. Right now...it is an open wave and that is what you call it.

Are you a met? If not...I don't think you are qualified to make that call because you don't have the necessary experience in doing it...no offense. It is easy for a non-met to say "do this or that" without realizing what you are really saying. It is like arm-chair qb'ing. It's one thing to look at teh data and say "maybe"...but when the data say it isn't there...you can't really say it is. That would be like issuing a t-storm warning when the skies are clear because of the likely-hood that something might occur.

OK - I'm not making myself clear. My point comes from safety. When they drop advisories, the average layman stops listening. There was a real chance this could have come back by the later advisory. It didn't, obviously. It was awful darn close though, wasn't it? Some of the other threads tonight suggest that the thing isn't really acting like a wave either, is it? The folks on Haiti or nearby are probably thinking "Tropical Storm" given the wind and the rain. The issue to me, a layman, is that the science is only part of the issue, public protection should also be considered.

As to your second point, I am not a professional met and never will be. This comment upsets me because I felt that my point was valid and was reasonable given the conflicting mission of NHC to provide not only scientific analysis but also their public protection role. I made that comment in the spirit that I thought this board was created: a forum for weather junkies.

I presume I need some guidance here: was my post inappropriate in any way? If so, I apologize and will forthwith end such commenting. In fact, if I'm not supposed to post such comments, I suppose I need to move on. I've got plenty in my real job to keep me busy, I suppose.

[Air Force Met]

The problem lies in teh knowledge of the public. The NHC has to call it what it is. If it is an open wave...and they know it and everyone else knows it...then they really can't call it a TD. If you get TS force winds in a wave...then should we call it Fabian? No. The public needs to be educated.

As to whether it was close? I don't think so. QuikSCAT and recon confirmed that it wasn't even close to being a closed low...so there was no real chance it was going to come back that day. Why? Because the convection wasn't close to the wave axis and without that happening...there is no chance of development unless a new LLC forms...and given the gradient winds..etc...that wasn't going to happen.

Here is the answer...I think..to your delima. You have to remember who the NHC is. They do not put out the warnings or watches for the DR, Haiti, Cuba, Mexico...etc. They issue advisories on a storm. The governments still have the responsibility to issue the warnings for their people. IN the case of the US...the NHC issues the warnings. However, in teh case of teh DR...it is up to the DR's weather service to issue warnings. Even if the NHC downgrades a system...that does not stop the DR weather service from issuing flood warnings...etc. You have to remember...the avg guy in the DR is not listening to the NHC...they are listening to their local offices.

So...just because the NHC downgrades something doesn't mean the DR weather svc can't keep up a warning of some kind. It is up to the gov't of each country to look out for public safety. Same concept with your local NWS office issuing svr tstms warnings or tornado warnings. Just because the SPC doesn't have a watch out doesn't mean they can't issue a warning. Just because the NHC downgrades doesn't mean the teh DR can't post a gale warning...SCA...storm warning...etc. Bottom line is: It is not the business of the NHC to post warnings and watch out for the people in the DR...that is the biz of the gov't in DR.

[ColdFront77]

That is the bottom line... The average person, either with some interest in meteorology and obviously those that don't have any at all beyond knowing what the weather is going to be day to day should understand why something isn't called a tropical wave, tropical, low, tropical depression, etc.