CNN Met Orleon Sydney downplays T.D 9

[rob8303]

CNN Meterologist Orelon Sydney had some interesting observations on TD 9 this morning. She said a) that it would likely become a tropical storm by tomorrow, b) She said that the storms trek through hispaniola will likely tear it apart and it will have to reorganize from a tropical wave and c)that it will be a minimal tropical storm as it approaches the U.S East Coast. She didn’t sound too worried about the system. So my question, were the alarm bells rung too early about TD 9 and is this likely to just be a tropical storm affecting the East Coast or GOM rather than a significant hurricane?

[Colin]

I don't know...but I'm beginning to doubt it will become a major hurricane.

[GalvestonDuck]

Hard to say. After Claudette proving that it's difficult to predict what these things will do, I'd have to say that I'm just gonna watch and wait.

[Guest]

East coast? We will just have to watch and see.

[vbhoutex]

Orleon sidney was an OCM here in Housotn for a while and made some IMO blatant miscalls on the weather. Then she went to CNN and has since, if I remember correctly miscalled another storm saying it would amount to nothing much and that turned into Claudette, I believe. She is correct in the fact that the trip across Hispaniola will definitely affect this system and indeed it could only be a strong TW coming off of Hispaniola, but when it reaches the almost ideal conditions between there and the Bahamas and S FL and Cuba I'd like to know why she thinks it will be minimal and not a threat!! To me her thinking doesn't make sense.

[JetMaxx]

The NHC projected path on TD 9 across Hispanola takes it from Baharona to near Port Au-Prince -- and there's a low valley running through that area thats about 30 miles wide....and TD 9 may "shoot the gap" and miss the highest mountains. Also, it's only 90 miles across from Baharona to Port Au-Prince....so it won't be over land long.

If this system is at least a TD near the eastern tip of Cuba -- IMHO LOOKOUT south Florida! -- with SST as high as they are south and east of Florida, and forecast slow movement and light shear, this TD could be a raging monster when it reaches Miami or the Keys.

[ColdFront77]

Claudette and Erika both developed rapidly after slow development because of low upper level wind shear and very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures... that would be the reasoning behind Tropical Depression Nine developing into a tropical storm before too long.

It makes sense for the possibility of this system to miss the most mountainous parts of the islands it is approaching.

[Air Force Met]

Problem is though that even if the pinpoint that is the center missed the mountains...the rest of it doesn't. All of this is probably pointless given the fact it will likely be downgraded at 5 and not hav a chance to redevelop until it gets to the GOM anyway.

[ColdFront77]

I understand that Air Force Met... but we have always heard that the center of a tropical system is the most important point of the system in regard to development.

Good point, Jonathan. This system continues to have potential and Florida getting at least some rain from this system is possible.