#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:33 am
WTXS21 PGTW 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 53.8E TO 16.9S 49.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 53.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 53.4E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. A 141729Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHTER ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT
AS CONVECTION SUSTAINS AND DEEPENS, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OLD,
RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHEN COMPARED WITH THE MORE ACTIVE EASTERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LACKS VISIBLE BANDING FEATURES IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LIKELY STALLING
CONSOLIDATION, BUT IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
PARALLELING THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY
BE UNABLE TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160730Z.
//
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