Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS starting to look like the Euro...Snow all the way to the coast!

[MississippiWx]

Really hope the EURO continues its trend of colder and wetter (snowier). The GFS is coming into agreement with a pretty strong low pressure. Keep it coming!

[BigB0882]

Baton Rouge wants some! Looks fun for those that will get it, though, I think it will be too warm in my neck of the woods for anything but rain. Hopefully the cold will continue and we will have another shot down the line.

[Brent]

5 inches of snow with a quarter inch of ice at Birmingham



Also 5 inches of snow with a HALF inch of ice at Atlanta

[Ntxw]

Appears that if it does snow, it looks to be at the beginning and towards the end with the arctic front. In between looks nasty with an ice storm.

[Jag95]

it shows the Atlanta area being the "sweet" spot with up to 7".

[Brent]

Appears that if it does snow, it looks to be at the beginning and towards the end with the arctic front. In between looks nasty with an ice storm.

Yep. A real mess with ice on top of snow.

[StormingB81]

I am heading to NC in March...How is the weather and what cna I expect?

[MississippiWx]

I am heading to NC in March...How is the weather and what cna I expect?

There is literally no way of telling what the weather will be like in March.

[Brent]

HAHA, this is for the NEXT storm BEHIND Monday/Tuesday!

[StormingB81]

I am heading to NC in March...How is the weather and what cna I expect?

There is literally no way of telling what the weather will be like in March.

I am talking averages..is it cold? does it snow? does it start to warm up..on average I know to look when it gets close I am jus twondering on averages

[BigB0882]

Much better snow map, Brent! Too bad it is 300+ hours out.

[Brent]

I am heading to NC in March...How is the weather and what cna I expect?

There is literally no way of telling what the weather will be like in March.

I am talking averages..is it cold? does it snow? does it start to warm up..on average I know to look when it gets close I am jus twondering on averages

March is a very erratic month in the southeast. It can be hot, it can be cold. There can be tornadoes, there can be blizzards, and have been all before. It usually does begin to warmup on average(the average high is about 60-65), but there's no guarantee of anything. Obviously, the later in March you go the less chance of cold/snow but it has snowed in April before.

[bella_may]

Wow. This is crazy! We might even get more than the february snow storm last year! Moisture doesnt look to be a problem since weather channel shows an 80 percent chance here in se mississippi sunday with lows around 34 and a 30 percent chance monday. This is exciting indeed

[Ivanhater]

Eh

[BigB0882]

I know it is a ways out there and only one model but the GFS excites me in the longer range. It shows, for the very last entry, a little snow in Baton Rouge. What is interesting is that it not the usual hours of RN followed by one entry of SN that amounts to nothing. This begins as SN and with any luck maybe it will remain so for a few hours and amount to something. We shall see as time goes on but I will be anxious to see what they show tomorrow afternoon after a few more updates.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

[Ntxw]

Not much change on the Euro for the southeast compared to 12z except perhaps a tad warmer with the low going a bit more north.

[StormingB81]

I just hope to see snow in march in NC......however I think it would be a very low chance but we will see

[Brent]

I just hope to see snow in march in NC......however I think it would be a very low chance but we will see

Mountains would be your best shot.

0z Euro is concerningly warm. It needs to stop that trend...

[TigerCraig]

Insanely detailed discussion from Jackson, Ms:

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN FORECAST ELEMENTS TO FOCUS ON
IN THE LONG TERM. FIRST WILL BE THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SECOND WILL
BE ON TEMPS AS A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUE
AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. I
MENTION THESE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR ANY OF THIS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THE SNOW.

FOR THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THAT THE GLOBAL
MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT TOO BAD FOR OUR AREA. THE REASON IS THEY ALL
SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA FROM
EARLY SUN-SUN NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCES COME IN THE DETAILS AND THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE UPPER S/WV AND SFC LOW. IN THIS CASE...SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN 50 TO 150 MILES WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON PRECIP TYPE
AND OVERALL IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RECENT TRENDS FROM THE
GEM/EURO ARE FOR A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM AND FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW FURTHER NORTH NOW AND MORE OF THE CWA
TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WITH THESE MODELS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR NW DELTA WHERE IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR SOME SORT
OF MIX. AS FOR THE GFS...THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED A TAD COLDER...MORE
TOWARD THE PREV EURO...AND OFFERS MORE SNOW/MIX PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR
A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA. AS YOU CAN SEE...SMALL DIFFERENCES
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN PRECIP TYPE AND LOCATION.
ADDITIONALLY...THE S/WV (UPPER LOW) RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL
IS STILL OFF THE COAST OF SW CA AND LOCATED UNDER A UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL OUT OF THE OBS NETWORK...THERE REMAINS
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW THE FEATURE WILL
EVOLVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST OVER THE NEXT 60-90
HRS.

AN IMPORTANT THING TO MENTION IS HOW ALL THE GUID AT THIS POINT
SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES. THAT IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN JUST FALLING AS
LIQUID...ESPECIALLY AFTER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA RECEIVED 2-4
INCHES LAST WEEKEND. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
BIG PROBLEM WILL BE IF SOME OR ALL OF THIS LIQUID WOULD FALL AS SNOW
OR SOME SORT OF MIX. IF SO...THEN A MAJOR WINTER STORM WOULD BE IN
ORDER WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 5-15 INCHES AND SLEET/ICE ACCUMS OF .5 TO
1 INCH. FOR THE WINTRY STUFF TO OCCUR THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WOULD
HAVE TO PAN OUT AND BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...THIS RISK
IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE BUT DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SWING TO THE COLDER SIDE TO MAKE THAT RISK MUCH
HIGHER.

AS FOR NOW...I WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE AND LEAN TO MORE OF THE
CONSENSUS AND STAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTIONS. I WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET FOR MOSTLY THE N HALF
WHERE THE POTENTIAL IS A BIT HIGHER FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO BE REALIZED
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AS FOR POPS...GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY
SOME SMALL ADJ WERE MADE. THESE NEW POPS ARE A DECENT INCREASE TO
THE PREV FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SUN-SUN NIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUID. GUID VALUES LOOK GOOD ON
SAT...BUT OPTED TO RAISE SAT NIGHT SOME AND STAY CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE MAJORITY OF THE OPS GUID AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVORED THE WARMER LOWS. AS FOR SUN HIGHS...GUID VALUES WERE USED
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE NW WHERE COOLER READINGS ARE
EXPECTED.

ONE IMPORTANT THING ON DEALING WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS...EXPECT CHANGES! THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SORT OF BIG
WINTER WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING JUST RAIN
AND NOT A MAJOR DEAL. FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS I AM SURE CHANGES WILL BE IN STORE.

AS FOR THE SECOND FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN...COLD TEMPS FROM
TUE-THU. THE NICE THING ABOUT THIS IS...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON BUILDING VERY COLD AIR OVER CANADA AND PUSHING IT SOUTH
FOR MID WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH OF THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS GETS
DELIVERED SOUTH WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE WILL ULTIMATELY GET...BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
FOR THIS PERIOD WERE TRIMMED COLDER WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJ TO LOWS
FOR WED-THU. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MODELS REALLY PUSH THE CORE OF THE COLD INTO
THE REGION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE TEENS FOR LOWS AND STAYING BELOW
FREEZING FOR HIGHS. STAY TUNED FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO
WINTER FOR THE SOUTH. /CME/