Texas Winter 2010-2011

[mysterymachinebl]

Ahhh, to be in Pierre, South Dakota at the moment:

* Blizzard Warning
* Heavy Snow and Breezy
* -2 °F

Sounds like a perfect day for us winter weather enthusiasts...

Sounds good to me!

[Portastorm]

I'm ending 2010 the way it began... getting stiffed by the GFS! The 0z run shows the storm around Jan. 10th but is much, much warmer for Texas than the 12z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fpc.shtml

Fooey!

Eh, Happy New Year everyone.

[iorange55]

I knew it


My new year's resolution stop looking at models! Well ones in computer form at least.

[Ntxw]

Happy New Years everyone, and may there be one giant blizzard for everyone who wants it this year!

Yeah we took a step backwards tonight with the models. Still advertising some mighty chilly air soon though.

[srainhoutx]

Oh ye of little faith. While the GFS backed off the mega snow for TX, the models (virtually all of them) do show a storm. What is equally impressive is the strength of the Arctic Air and very strong Arctic High pressure showing up, run after run. In fact the 00Z ensembles strongly agree with a very chilly pattern and disturbances in the Upper flow passing by as the cold air is in place. The $64,000.00 is will there be moisture available when that cold air arrives and how soon or fast does the Arctic air surge S. Also is the timing of those short waves. Even the 06Z GFS shows a near 1060mb Arctic high near AK/Western Canada. Should make for an interesting week, regardless.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
354 AM EST SAT JAN 01 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 05 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA THIS FIRST WEEK
OF 2011 WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING EPISODE AS A
HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WORKS WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND TO N
CENTRAL CANADA WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD.
FARTHER S...LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS MUCH
OF S CENTRAL AND SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
48. THE LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR IS A GOOD FIT TO
TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY WORKING WSW FROM
SRN GREENLAND. AS DURING MUCH OF DECEMBER...THE REGION E OF THE
ROCKY MTNS WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
MAXIMUMS.


OUR PRELIM CHOICE FOR A BLEND TODAY...HAD A HIGHER PROPORTION THAN
USUAL OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LOWER THAN USUAL COMPONENT OF
THE ECMWF. IT WAS PREDOMINANTLY 50% OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...30% OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...AND 20% OF THE CANADIAN.
THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO OUR SKEPTICISM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD IN THE WAY THE ECMWF HANDLED A PAIR OF UPPER VORTICES
AFFECTING THE W COAST STATES. WE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE
SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF FOR THE W COAST STATES AS WE ENTERED
THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHILE THE SOLUTION FROM OFF THE CA COAST ACROSS
THE SWRN STATES IS MURKY AT BEST DAYS 3-5/TUE-THU...OF GREATER
IMPORTANCE IS THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/01 GEFS MEAN IS A BIT COLDER
THAN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THIS PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE BLOCKING MOVING ACROSS FAR NERN AND NRN CANADA.

FLOOD

[Portastorm]

Sorry srainhoutx ... guess I had too much sparkling grape juice!

I see the 12z GFS is back to the "wintry" scenario for Texas late next weekend. No doubt the operational GFS will be struggling a bit about next weekend until it gets a better grip on the Arctic outbreak.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12_county192.gif

[srainhoutx]

Look at all the cold air dumping S on the 12Z GFS as well as moisture.

[Portastorm]

Look at all the cold air dumping S on the 12Z GFS as well as moisture.

Indeed! The last half of the entire run shows a consistent threat for wintry weather in much of Texas. Looks like I drew up that run or something.

[Ntxw]

I'm really liking this set up. Yeah the GFS is going on and off but it has the right ingredients. Gut feeling. Portastorm quit hacking into the GFS and manipulating it's data!

[somethingfunny]

I know it's at least a week out.

I know it's at least a week out.

I know it's at least a week out.

But those models sure have been harping on this for a while now and the timeframe hasn't been pushed back. Consistency = legitimacy?

I know, it's at least a week out!

[iorange55]

I know it's at least a week out.

I know it's at least a week out.

I know it's at least a week out.

But those models sure have been harping on this for a while now and the timeframe hasn't been pushed back. Consistency = legitimacy?

I know, it's at least a week out!

lol.......although this would be a bigger event.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro = Northern Texas fun. This has constantly been the notorious building phase at hr 100-200. I want it to stick! I've been saying this a lot and I'll say it again, big storms have good model agreements long way out (can argue about the new years storm but all models showed it, just not the same track, euro always had it a bit further north).



In other news: Anyone see how cold it's going to get in Russia? Wow -90 or colder. I wonder what the record is outside of Antarctica. I remember it was in Asia somewhere in the -90s.

Edit:

Record Value -67.8°C (-90°F)
Date of Record (a) 5/2/1892, 7/2/1892
(b) 6/2/1933
Geospatial Location (a) Verkhoyansk, Russia [67°33'N, 133°23'E, elevation 107 m (350 ft)]
(b) Oimaykon, Russia [63°28'N, 142°23'E, elevation 800m (2625 ft)]

[Portastorm]

I'm really liking this set up. Yeah the GFS is going on and off but it has the right ingredients. Gut feeling. Portastorm quit hacking into the GFS and manipulating it's data!

Now if I could only crack the 0z code!

[srainhoutx]

Yet again virtually all the 12Z models depict a storm in the 192 hour time frame and cold air as well. The finer details remain to be seen, but a consensus is developing regarding something across TX and OK. Stay tuned!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS for President!!! I'm still liking the set up. Brings back good memories.

[iorange55]

18z GFS for President!!! I'm still liking the set up.

You beat me to it!

[Ntxw]

Overall, I'd say we've strung together enough runs (and the EC is somewhat on board) that we can put some money on this and not just a fantasy storm in the long range.



GFS continues the trend that this is not a one and done deal. More 'wintry' onslaughts past the initial storm. Given the climo being our coldest time of year, things are turning to our favor!

[iorange55]

If none of this comes together then it's official that this winter is a tease.

[srainhoutx]

Nice 1050+ Arctic High in AK/Western Canada yet again.

[Ntxw]

Nice 1050+ Arctic High in AK/Western Canada yet again.

Srain, I know it's early but I've got to give you credit. Even through the rather dull runs and scorching provided by the models you stuck to your guns on the pattern change!

Here's to hoping that I will have a new updated radar graphic soon to replace my avatar!