Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Yeah, wait 'til you guys get a load of the 12z GFS ... looks like a nice winter weather event for central and north Texas next weekend! Now ... all we need is about 3-4 days of consistent runs and Euro agreement.

That's not asking much, is it?

[WacoWx]

AHHHH some optimism i like it! to counter balance your , i'll raise you a in hopes that mother nature is reading this thread.

[Ntxw]

I noticed this possibility from last night's GFS ensembles. A few members hinted at the idea but I didn't want to get caught up on it too early without GFS support . It appears like a good set up with cold high pressure to our north while a decent storm is coming up from Mexico (will be difficult to track and lots of uncertainties since there's not much data coming from Mexico). I'll be more optimistic if the euro gets on board.

Appears that the AO will keep cranking up the Arctic Express.

[Portastorm]

AHHHH some optimism i like it! to counter balance your , i'll raise you a in hopes that mother nature is reading this thread.

I'm getting there WacoWx ... I'm getting there.

My unbridled optimism from winters past has been poisoned by too many never-happened, or almost-happened events. I've learned to temper the enthusiasim. Ha ... yeah, right. Give me a few more GFS runs showing what the 12z run shows and I'll be tooting the horn like everyone else.

Gonna be a fun ride ahead, folks!

[srainhoutx]

Come guys. The guidance is coming together for a very interesting period ahead. Did anyone notice the near 1060 mb Arctic High building S across AK and dropping S along the lee side of the Rockies? Guidance (mainly the Euro) has suggested a split in the Polar Vortex and dropping that feature into Siberia. It also suggests the break down of the persistent Kamchatka ridging which suggests some mighty cold air could be dislodged and spread across the Polar region. Interesting days ahead, folks.

[Ntxw]

Eye Candy *drools*

[WacoWx]

[billy madison] JACKPOT! [billy madison]

[Texas Snowman]

Sadly, this current set-up didn't deliver a snow storm but it sure lived up to the severe weather potential that several of you alluded to a few days ago.

I see now on FoxNews.com where extensive tornado damage took place in Cinnicinati, Arkansas (NW part of state); people may still be trapped in debris; and at least three are dead. In SE Missouri, more damage and possibly one fatality.

[Texas Snowman]

Ahhh, to be in Pierre, South Dakota at the moment:

* Blizzard Warning
* Heavy Snow and Breezy
* -2 °F

Sounds like a perfect day for us winter weather enthusiasts...

[iorange55]

I'd be more excited but it almost feels like this winter it's just a bunch of teasing and it's just not going to pan out. Hopefully something comes together, though. I just have a feeling as we get closer it'll show something completely different with no snow for us.

[Ntxw]

I'd be more excited but it almost feels like this winter it's just a bunch of teasing and it's just not going to pan out. Hopefully something comes together, though. I just have a feeling as we get closer it'll show something completely different with no snow for us.

I think something will pan out. I've never gone through a north Texas winter without seeing wintry precip (though my memories of winters past doesn't go beyond 10 years lol). 2008-2009 was the worst I can remember and even then we had a nice little ice storm with freezing rain.

Contrary, there is a band of precip that was shown by a few models and was never really picked up by the globals or NAM in west Texas, post frontal. Still doesn't show anything on current runs lol yet it's there...If it can come down hard enough, with dewpoints in the single digits who knows lol. Temps behind the second front is in the 20s and 30s.

[Dallasaggie01]

Although I'd agree with you in spirit, I seem to remember 2005-2006 was one of the warmest winters I can remember with only 1 very minor event in late Jan. Otherwise I seem to recall an 80 degree stretch by mid Jan. is there anyway to find out if that was a La Nina year?

Hopefully we'll see something still, I refuse to believe we could have a complete opposite swing from last year

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a snirga (Snow Virga) event for N TX. Enjoy and Happy New Year!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
422 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

TXZ049-054-064-065-098-099-113-114-127-128-010000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...
WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...
BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS
422 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.NOW...
A BAND OF MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF STERLING AND COKE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH THE CLOUD
LAYER...MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S. AREAS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THIS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INCLUDE SWEETWATER...ANSON...HASKELL...ROTAN AND
THROCKMORTON. NO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS = Blizzard northern half of Texas from the storm coming out of Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

The 8th -10th trend continues...

[Ntxw]

Yeah if only, lets keep our fingers crossed, after the 'blizzard' and a foot of snow in north Texas, single digits dive in from the north. Woo time to frame up this run. I do like the fact the storm is coming up from Mexico though, that means a negatively tilted trough, and those are always fun to be in. Just look at the northern plains. SW to NE.

As for the EURO, it's slower with the cold/precip feature off Mexico. Looks optimistic. 2 runs and counting, lets string together a few more sha'll we?

[iorange55]

IT'S ALL A TEASE! Really though that would be a very nice event. I guess it's better it being 9-10 days out instead of the usual 15 day teaser.

[Ntxw]

IT'S ALL A TEASE! Really though that would be a very nice event. I guess it's better it being 9-10 days out instead of the usual 15 day teaser.

Tease or not, remember last year with the big snow event in Feb. The GFS had an idea about the same frame. We didn't want to believe it until it started stringing together a few runs. This is 2 runs (several more with a storm just not cold until recently) and the ensembles a few more. Good place to start. Seems a good chance there will be a storm, but is it going to be 70 and raining or 30 and snowing...

[Portastorm]

Well, the latest runs from the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian ALL show an Arctic airmass dumping into the nation's midsection by the latter part of next weekend. If we can see that kind of continuity for a few key runs (0z and 12z) through this weekend ... I'd say the odds are above average for some kind of event. Increased chatter as well on other forums about Arctic air for next weekend.

Looks like I'm going to have to put down my glass of sparkling grape juice tonight and check the GFS run and what y'all think before the ball drops on Sixth Street.

[Tireman4]

Well, the latest runs from the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian ALL show an Arctic airmass dumping into the nation's midsection by the latter part of next weekend. If we can see that kind of continuity for a few key runs (0z and 12z) through this weekend ... I'd say the odds are above average for some kind of event. Increased chatter as well on other forums about Arctic air for next weekend.

Looks like I'm going to have to put down my glass of sparkling grape juice tonight and check the GFS run and what y'all think before the ball drops on Sixth Street.

Porta gets a snowstorm for 2011.....