Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

What's this?! A +PNA?!!! With some help from the AO?! *faints*

[Portastorm]

If the 12z NAM is correct, a core from west-central Texas, to Austin, to Houston would be bullseye! Very similar to the HPC low tracks.

Good observation. Another thing from the 12z NAM run which stuck out to me was the temps the morning after Christmas. Mid to upper 20s for much of central Texas. Highs the day after Christmas would be in the 40s in North Texas and at about 50 near my neck of the woods. Usually the NAM is warmer than other models. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

I'll post this here but this is some major news regarding a problem that the NCEP has detected with the GFS, fwiw...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1526Z THU DEC 23 2010

ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION..

AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED
PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES
NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE.
WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011.
AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE
AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO
JOHN.WARD@NOAA.GOV

[Ntxw]

Srain is our Santa this Christmas!

FW

OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM AND TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. EXPECT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOR DECEMBER WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH
AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES. EXPECT RAINFALL
TO END CHRISTMAS DAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN WEST. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S./MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST BY
MIDWEEK. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND
OVER NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS LOW DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TO END
OUT THE YEAR WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM/RAIN CHANCES AROUND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[vbhoutex]

If the 12z NAM is correct, a core from west-central Texas, to Austin, to Houston would be bullseye! Very similar to the HPC low tracks.

Oh please, please Santa can I have this for Christmas?? I promise I'll be good next year!!

[Portastorm]

It must be Santa coming from west Texas because I see reds and greens (and yellows) on the radar out that way right now!

[natlib]

0.70 inches of rain here in San Angelo this morning with a little thunder mixed in. God gave us a nice Christmas present this morning. Thank you!

[Portastorm]

0.70 inches of rain here in San Angelo this morning with a little thunder mixed in. God gave us a nice Christmas present this morning. Thank you!

Picked up about .55 inches of rain today in my area of Austin. Nice!

[benrayrog]

I keep hearing hints of the coldest weather of the season possible by the end of next week. Anything to that?

[HockeyTx82]

I am in Carrollton at my mom's but I see the weather station in Denton is reporting snow! Can anyone confirm this? Merry Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

I am in Carrollton at my mom's but I see the weather station in Denton is reporting snow! Can anyone confirm this? Merry Christmas.

I see Denton is reporting light snow at 9 AM, but watch those Automated Weather Stations as they can be misleading. With that said, we have mist and drizzle and 39 degrees at this time in NW Harris County. Merry Christmas everyone!

[srainhoutx]

Wow, temps have dropped well below freezing in NW Harris County (27 at this hour) even with some light winds. It appears the coldest air of the season will settle into SE TX tonight and then we shift to an interesting week ahead. Guidance suggests a robust Coastal trough/low pressure will move N into Central TX increasing rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday and warm up there after as a powerful storm takes shape in the SW dropping a very deep trough into the Western CONUS. There are some differences between the GFS and Euro, but what is consistent is the continued advertisement of a very strong storm in the Southern and Central Plains with both severe and winter sides affecting parts of TX. We will need to watch this event closely as the week progresses as it could bring some interesting weather both Friday and Saturday into our region in time for the New Year. Stay tuned as they say.

[Portastorm]

Temp bottomed out at 25 degrees here in southwest Travis County. Coldest morning so far this season.

[vbhoutex]

If the 12z NAM is correct, a core from west-central Texas, to Austin, to Houston would be bullseye! Very similar to the HPC low tracks.

Oh please, please Santa can I have this for Christmas?? I promise I'll be good next year!!

I am in trouble now!!! Santa delivered 0.93' of rain here at the house. Low this am was 24.3f the coldest I've seen this season.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow, temps have dropped well below freezing in NW Harris County (27 at this hour) even with some light winds. It appears the coldest air of the season will settle into SE TX tonight and then we shift to an interesting week ahead. Guidance suggests a robust Coastal trough/low pressure will move N into Central TX increasing rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday and warm up there after as a powerful storm takes shape in the SW dropping a very deep trough into the Western CONUS. There are some differences between the GFS and Euro, but what is consistent is the continued advertisement of a very strong storm in the Southern and Central Plains with both severe and winter sides affecting parts of TX. We will need to watch this event closely as the week progresses as it could bring some interesting weather both Friday and Saturday into our region in time for the New Year. Stay tuned as they say.

Consistency in the model advertising is pretty amazing. Me thinks this is a big one brewing for somebody in the southern plains.

[Ntxw]

Canadian today and Euro looks similar. GGEM swings a low up the Texas coast to the Great Lakes. North Texas and Oklahoma gets snow this run for new years. Both depict a second energy digging into Mexico from the SW and swings through Texas, so wintry precip would be from this not the initial storm in the central plains. The GFS keeps swinging the low south but looks kind of funny, I'm guessing the second feature is giving it a headache right now.



FWIW, the JMA, ensembles, UKMET hint at this idea also early on pattern wise.

[srainhoutx]

Another hard freeze this morning in SE TX with 26 for 5 hours so far in NW Harris County. Things look to get interesting Tuesday through Thursday for Central and Eastern TX with a robust short wave approaching and bringing some high percentage rain chances. The QPF totals are very encouraging and a chance at some strong storms/MCS as well. HGX is mentioning the possibility of heavy rainfall and hail. We certainly have shifted from our boring weather pattern of the past couple of months toward a more active period.



HPC:

SRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY ADVANCING EWD OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
TUE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASING SRLY RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATER IN THE DAY AND THROUGH
EARLY WED. THE RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF
AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CNTRL/ERN TX AND INTO MUCH OF THE LWR
MS VLY. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE ROBUST OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO WITH THE MID LVL FORCING/DYNAMICS AND THIS SHOULD
HELP YIELD A STRONGER EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF A MORE CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD
ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST ON WED WITH HVY RAINFALL AMTS. THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLNS ARE DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LVL JET OF UP TO
40 KTS AND A POOL OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PWATS CROSSING FAR SERN
TX/LA AND COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPR LVL SUPPORT.
EXPECT A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTION
AND WHAT WILL LIKELY QUALIFY AS AN MCS. THE ENERGY/CONVECTION
THOUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD WED NIGHT/THU TWD THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
MORE STABLE BNDRY LYR. THE UPR LVL SUPPORT SHOULD ALSO BE
GRADUALLY SHEARING OUT/WEAKENING. HPC PREFERRED A SOLN TWD THE
WETTER GFS/ECMWF SOLNS...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS ADJUSTED CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CST MON DEC 27 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT OVER THE CONUS BY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR-COASTAL/OFFSHORE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST.

...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TUESDAY NIGHT...
IN TANDEM WITH A PROGGED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
GRADUAL/MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX TO THE ARKLATEX.
GIVEN THE RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF/CARIBBEAN AND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TRAJECTORIES...QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN IS
UNLIKELY AND A RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT IS PROBABLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT COULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A MARGINALLY
MOIST/BUOYANT NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WHILE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING BUT MODEST MOISTURE COULD PERHAPS SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW SUCH THAT
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 12/27/2010

[Portastorm]

Yep, we bottomed out again at 25 degrees for the second night in a row here in southwest Austin/Travis County.

I'm less impressed with the potential for wintry weather in parts of north Texas based on this morning's modeling but probably more impressed with the potential for severe weather in parts of central and east Texas this week. In fact, the new 12z GFS spits out about an inch of rain for me and anywhere from 2-3 inches for srainhoutx and our other friends in SE Texas!

[Ntxw]

no fun! Here's to hope the Euro provides some optimism!

[Portastorm]

:( no fun! Here's to hope the Euro provides some optimism!

You mean that .50-1.00 of rainfall progged for DFW doesn't excite you?!

Like you, I hope the lunch-hour Euro run gives us some reason for winter hope.