Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Portastorm]

Its raining good in carrollton now, with the temp at 38. Is there any possible way that the heavy rain could cool the air off even more where the temps could drop some more?

I think it's going to be more of a question of how close you are to the actual low center.

I see that the Bridgeport airport METAR is reporting snow with an air temp of 39. Interesting.

[Ntxw]

Its raining good in carrollton now, with the temp at 38. Is there any possible way that the heavy rain could cool the air off even more where the temps could drop some more?

Dew points aren't freezing or close right now. There is a remote, and I mean remote, chance that if the upper low strengthens some and passes right over head it might drag some mixing down if there is any hard enough precip left.

[kb75007]

If only the temps were just a few degrees cooler!

[Portastorm]

If only the temps were just a few degrees cooler!

Yeah, unfortunately for you, my sense is that if you were to get any mixed precip ... it would be happening by now.

[kb75007]

If only the temps were just a few degrees cooler!

Yeah, unfortunately for you, my sense is that if you were to get any mixed precip ... it would be happening by now.

Yeah, just very chilly and raining but i think the heavier precip is yet to come

[Portastorm]

kb75007 ... judging from radar, yes, you're probably in for some heavier precip soon ... but after looking at the latest satellite loops ... the upper low core is going to pass to your south which probably means no mixed precip. I wouldn't be surprised to see some reports of such coming from places like Waxahachie though in the next hour or two.

[iorange55]

Been out in this all day just a cold rain in south Dallas. We're under the heavy stuff now and still no snow so oh well. I have to admit though it feels really nice outside. I love cold weather, even with the nasty rain.

[Ntxw]

Look at the pattern on today's EC and GFS. Could it be that the PNA goes positive?! The Aleutian low looks beautiful and those high's raising heights up the GOA is candy to my eyes. I also see a possible active jet down near Mexico...hmmm. I got good feelings about early January! (our coldest time period climo wise)

[TwisterFanatic]

Has been snowing very lightly for about 2 hours now, but its to warm for anything to stick.

[somethingfunny]

Okay, these are from this date last year. They're still nice to look at! Merry Christmas everybody!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

Now that Christmas is here I hope everyone is enjoying it!

Anyone take a look at the 12z GFS? the trend for the new year's day storm has been waaay south. There's a blizzard going on in the southern plains with brutal temperatures for the New Year on the GFS.

[Texas Snowman]

Bring it on! We ain't skeered!!!

[TwisterFanatic]

Tulsa NWS sounds like they're getting concerned about a major system moving in next week.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LONG-RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING WINDS
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SURGE
INTO THE REGION TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NO REAL DETAILS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FOLLOW LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

[TwisterFanatic]

[Ntxw]

Now that we have passed Christmas, time to look at the New Year's storm in depth. The PNA is going to less positive, there's cold air around (courtesy of the AO and NAO), and we are approaching the coldest period average wise. What does that usually spell? WINTER WEATHER. Tonight's 0z GFS is still doing it's hoopla of changing tracks, rightfully so this far out. The theme here is the persistence of a negatively tilted storm swinging through the Southern Plains.

The ECMWF too has a deep trough, with snow breaking out in Oklahoma and North Texas. Though not as wound up as the GFS, it would impact areas further south as the cold air really pushes through compared to the GFS with energy coming from the SW behind the front breaking out.



We all know the track record when the GFS and EC show a storm 5-10 days out, it's not too bad only the details is going to change a billion times. But if everything turns out as they show, could be our best chance at a big winter storm this season, doesn't get any better for a La Nada.

This is looking very much like a spring storm set up, with near blizzard conditions in the plains while severe weather just due south and east.

[wx247]

Here's Tulsa's take this morning:

FORECAST CONCERNS GROW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE ECMWF...UKMET AND A HANDFUL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SWINGING IT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THESE
SOLUTIONS INSTEAD OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS. VERY COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
TIME WHICH MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE NON LIQUID. A
LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...WITH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO SPECULATE ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE RATHER DICEY AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

[TwisterFanatic]

For Sallisaw

Friday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

New Year's Day: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

[Portastorm]

Going to be an interesting few days, I think. As Ntxw and srainhoutx have posted (and a fine job, lads!), we have a "developing situation" with the Southern Plains storm progged for New Years. Both the Euro and Canadian suggest the potential for wintry weather in Oklahoma and parts of North Texas and severe weather further east and south.

The MJO is in phase 7 and progged to stay there for a bit (that usually means wetter and colder than normal for the southern Plains). The Arctic Oscillation is still in the negative phase which means will have some cold air to work with ... although it is progged to go positive after the New Year. The North Atlantic Oscillation remains negative which means a trough over the eastern US. All good signs for us!

All in all, looks like we'll have a fun week of tracking model runs, satellite pix, and forecast discussions. And you can find it nowhere else but here at Storm 2K!

[srainhoutx]

What a very interesting, dynamic, and complex pattern ahead, folks. The Euro and Canadian and to some extent the GFS globals suggest a double 'low' (vort max if you will) dropping into N MX near New Years Eve. There is a disturbance near HI that appears to fit rather nicely with those models. Portastorm has been fine tuning his forecast, I see.

[Ntxw]

Lets hope Portastorm doesn't need to see his therapist again after this period.

This looks like our best shot this winter. If it doesn't happen then, I'll be less optimistic after mid January!