Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Ntxw]

Anyone notice how considerably further south the GFS with the shortwave this weekend (but is weaker)? Of course that does not always translate to more cold air up here but that's the only difference I notice so far.

It's also suppressing energy too much for the KU storm possibilities to the east which continues to be the anti-Euro. Though it is latching to a big storm near the coast for coastal residents.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is about to get real interesting in the medium range.

[Ntxw]

The GFS is about to get real interesting in the medium range.

It bombs a storm equally as impressive in the middle of the country as the one on the east coast in a few days. the joy of crazy model watching.

[ravyrn]

The GFS is about to get real interesting in the medium range.

Did yall catch the storm developing at 348 hrs? Long range looks equally interesting. Maybe even more so.

[wx247]

I don't like the 12z GFS at all!

[DentonGal]

I don't like the 12z GFS at all!

Why not???

[Portastorm]

I love the 12z GFS! Namely, I love it because it gives Austin about three quarters of an inch of rainfall this weekend. That would be a wonderful thing.

Don't even want to focus much on the post-Christmas period but that does look interesting for us as well with more precip threats.

[Ntxw]

It's been quite chilly around here today for starters. Yesterday the forecast was to hit the low 60s. Doesn't look like that's going to happen with us barely making it past 50. Nearly 30 degrees colder than yesterday where we sat at 85 for a record high.

A wide perspective of the players.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the long range ensembles. Something special may well be ahead before the pattern relaxes.

[Ntxw]

Keep an eye on the long range ensembles. Something special may well be ahead before the pattern relaxes.

I see the ghost of Nino's years past echoing in the distance getting louder!

[Texas Snowman]

My wish list for this winter:

1. One good snow event in North Texas (especially the Red River counties)
2. One epic cold front
3. Enough moisture to keep the wildfire season down

and last but not least... (drum roll please)

4. A big winter event for our long-suffering Portastorm!!!!

[Ntxw]

My wish list for this winter:

1. One good snow event in North Texas (especially the Red River counties)
2. One epic cold front
3. Enough moisture to keep the wildfire season down

and last but not least... (drum roll please)

4. A big winter event for our long-suffering Portastorm!!!!

Pshh he had that miracle Blizzard of AUS last year in late Feb with his massive 2 inches. He's set for another decade. Houston needs a big one, I've had friends down that way beg for one even though they've seen more 'events' than Austin but most of it officially never really amounted to more than an inch or two the past few years (4+ in certain areas outside of the city in 08)

[Texas Snowman]

Yep, forgot about that 2" snow he got.

Still, hard to root against Portastorm after getting tricked by Lucy so many times...

[srainhoutx]

Pfftt...Lucy. I haven't seen a good Houston snow since January 73, but I digress.

[Portastorm]

Ah Snowman, you're a good guy ... I appreciate you looking out for me! Ntxw should know that the alleged two inches of snow in Austin in February wasn't citywide (mostly northern portions) and it melted quickly. Where's the love?!

I think it snowed every other week in Houston last winter, didn't it?!

Speaking of Lucy ... I think it's time to change my avatar.

[Ntxw]

Ah Snowman, you're a good guy ... I appreciate you looking out for me! Ntxw should know that the alleged two inches of snow in Austin in February wasn't citywide (mostly northern portions) and it melted quickly. Where's the love?!

I think it snowed every other week in Houston last winter, didn't it?!

Speaking of Lucy ... I think it's time to change my avatar.

You know I'm always looking out for you when it comes to winter precip Portastorm . Just wanted to make sure our rather short-spanned memories of snow got a reminder. That foot of snow here in Dallas can only keep the folks fed for so long (less complaints this year if you've noticed)! It's going to wear out and we'll have riots going if srain doesn't give us that pattern change!

[srainhoutx]

Ah Snowman, you're a good guy ... I appreciate you looking out for me! Ntxw should know that the alleged two inches of snow in Austin in February wasn't citywide (mostly northern portions) and it melted quickly. Where's the love?!

I think it snowed every other week in Houston last winter, didn't it?!

Speaking of Lucy ... I think it's time to change my avatar.

You know I'm always looking out for you when it comes to winter precip Portastorm . Just wanted to make sure our rather short-spanned memories of snow got a reminder. That foot of snow here in Dallas can only keep the folks here fed for so long (less complaints this year if you've noticed)! It's going to wear out and we'll have riots going if srain doesn't give us that pattern change!

Only 2 days away, Ntxw. Enjoy the moisture!

[iorange55]

GFS 0z in 7 days maybe an ice storm? Either that or reallllllllllllly cold rain .

[Texas Snowman]

GFS 0z in 7 days maybe an ice storm? Either that or reallllllllllllly cold rain .

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a couple of memorable North Texas winter events during a La Nina.

One of those was the Christmas 2000 ice storm in the Red River Valley. People all over this region were without power for a couple of days up to a week or more.

At one point on Dec. 26 or Dec. 27, more than a quarter of a million people in north and northeast Texas and portions of southeastern Oklahoma were without power.

[Ntxw]

I did a skew map on twisterdata for the 150-168 time frame and the lower levels aren't at or below freezing (40s). Quite warm above that to the 700mb level which wet bulbing won't help. Looks like a chilly rain but of course that is 7 days out so who knows.