Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Ntxw]

Well, overall for the NAM is less of a closed low to bring back precip except for northern Oklahoma in the cold air. Other than that, plenty of beneficial rain.

[iorange55]

Well, overall for the NAM is less of a closed low to bring back precip except for northern Oklahoma in the cold air. Other than that, plenty of beneficial rain.

Yeah not much of any wrap around. We'll see what the other models bring. The rain is good either way though. Maybe the snow will come the next week.

[Ntxw]

Well, overall for the NAM is less of a closed low to bring back precip except for northern Oklahoma in the cold air. Other than that, plenty of beneficial rain.

Yeah not much of any wrap around. We'll see what the other models bring. The rain is good either way though. Maybe the snow will come the next week.

It is the NAM though. Anything beyond 48 hours on it is equivalent to the second half of the GFS lol. I would like for this thing to go a bit further south so that S/E Texas gets decent thunderstorms, they need it most.

[TwisterFanatic]

On the NAM the rain/snow line is right on me starting at 66 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Remember folks. The NAM is a mesoscale model. We're looking at ‘hints’ for the OP guidance. For the Southern Plains, this is a big step toward the 12Z Euro. Let's see what all this guidance spins out tonight. This is a volatile time frame in model world, IMO.

[Ntxw]

Remember folks. The NAM is a mesoscale model. We're looking at ‘hints’ for the OP guidance. For the Southern Plains, this is a big step toward the 12Z Euro. Let's see what all this guidance spins out tonight. This is a volatile time frame in model world, IMO.

Don't get us excited srain! We're gonna hold you hostage for all this pattern change harp until you give to us! I love it!

GFS is initializing, here's to either early sleep, or late night joy! It's digging to SoCal/Baja as the beginning of NAM did.

[HockeyTx82]

Remember folks. The NAM is a mesoscale model. We're looking at ‘hints’ for the OP guidance. For the Southern Plains, this is a big step toward the 12Z Euro. Let's see what all this guidance spins out tonight. This is a volatile time frame in model world, IMO.

Don't get us excited srain! We're gonna hold you hostage for all this pattern change harp until you give to us! I love it!

GFS is initializing, here's to either early sleep, or late night joy! It's digging to SoCal/Baja as the beginning of NAM did.

So are you talking about Christmas Day? Or further out. I seem to think there are two possible storms you all are talking about and I want to make sure I understand what is going on. Snow? Rain? What's the trends for NTX? Sorry if I seem like I am confused, truth is I am.

[Ntxw]

I don't blame you hockey, lots of things to talk about beyond Christmas, but really right now everyone is zeroing in on this weekend. No snow tonight via NAM and GFS for ntx but plenty of chill and rain.

[srainhoutx]

I don't blame you hockey, lots of things to talk about beyond Christmas, but really right now everyone is zeroing in on this weekend. No snow tonight via NAM and GFS for ntx but plenty of chill and rain.

The GFS is trending toward a consensus tonight, so far. We'll see what the other globals suggest as the night wears on.

[Ntxw]

All hopes on the Euro! I do agree with you srain. The trend has been and continues to be to the EC. Picking specifics is usually fatal at this range.

[Ntxw]

The model consensus seems to fairly agree with the GFS, Canadian, NAM, UKMET looking very similar with a slightly less impressive storm than some of them have shown prior, and doesn't phase in time for our friends to the east. I would be surprised if the Euro doesn't start trending that way also as it would be the outlier otherwise.

Update: EC isn't giving us snow (but it is for a brief time in Oklahoma and NW Texas possibly, along with KS and MO).

[srainhoutx]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but did anyone notice the 00Z Euro in the meduim range (240 hour)?

[Ntxw]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but did anyone notice the 00Z Euro in the meduim range (240 hour)?

It's too good to be true!

[Portastorm]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but did anyone notice the 00Z Euro in the meduim range (240 hour)?

It's too good to be true!

Polar front + upper level disturbance to our southwest = Texas winter fun!

[Ntxw]

I think we should do a ceremonial human sacrifice to La Nada for that set up. Hmm but who to pick...any volunteers *cough srain cough*?

Rain!

[djmikey]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but did anyone notice the 00Z Euro in the meduim range (240 hour)?

It's too good to be true!

Polar front + upper level disturbance to our southwest = Texas winter fun!

Can you provide a link? I am unable to pull this up at work. Thanks!

[Kelarie]

That map is too good to be true, it has to be doctored. But the colours were sure pretty

[Portastorm]

Link here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Euro suggests a South/Central Texas Snow Miracle?????

Or does Lucy go Romo again?

[wx247]

12z NAM is colder.