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Stephanie wrote:This is probably storm that was initially thought to hit Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. I've noticed that the development had slowed down in the earlier models today.
I don't know if your cousin will make it into Boston if the storm develops. It depends upon when he's traveling versus when the storm comes. I hope that he does get to see some snow for Christmas.
srainhoutx wrote:Luis, your brother but get ready. If the Euro is correct the qpf output suggest 2 feet of snow in Boston. All the of the I-95 corridor is at or near the 1 foot range as well.
cycloneye wrote:Here is the text by HPC this afternoon about the east coast storm.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
302 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z TUE DEC 28 2010
...POTENTIAL EAST COAST WINTER STORM AFTER CHRISTMAS...
THE MAIN ISSUE INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OR PHASING
OF MULTIPLE STREAMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM BEGINNING DAY 4. OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
CONFIGURATIONS INCLUDING RESOLUTION...AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA
ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION IS
UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL
MODELS...POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS.
THUS...THE APPROACH FOR THE EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM IS TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE
WITH THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS IN THE EAST WAS TO NUDGE THE
FINAL POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TOWARD A
CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE FINAL POSITIONS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF.
AFTER DISCOUNTING THE 12Z UKMET DUE TO ITS OUTLIER DEPICTIONS IN
MULTIPLE AREAS...THE 12Z ECMWF LIES NEAR THE SLOW OR SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...WOULD RATHER SEE ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE
USING ENTIRELY...WHICH IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES...LIES WITHIN THE
LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF ALL SOLUTIONS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LESS. IF
THE NEW ECMWF VERIFIES...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HOWEVER...ITS SPEED WILL BE MUCH
SLOWER...RESULTING IN GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
JAMES
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