Florida winter thread 2010-11

[psyclone]

brooksville is 39 with a dewpoint of 24 at 8pm. forecast low is 21. Tampa is 43 with a dewpoint of 28. the forecast low is 26. that's an awful lot temp dropping needed to reach those estimates...without the assistance of the usual predawn radiation dump that often tanks temps a few degrees within an hour. tampa only dropped 1 degree between 6 and 8pm.

[gatorcane]

brooksville is 39 with a dewpoint of 24 at 8pm. forecast low is 21. Tampa is 43 with a dewpoint of 28. the forecast low is 26. that's an awful lot temp dropping needed to reach those estimates...without the assistance of the usual predawn radiation dump that often tanks temps a few degrees within an hour. tampa only dropped 1 degree between 6 and 8pm.

Dewpoints are way low even in the Tampa area. Clearwater has a dewpoint of 29F at 8pm. That is telling me the atmosphere is becoming primed for a major temperature drop later on tonight.

Dewpoints are low even into southern Florida with mid to upper 30s along the southeastern coast of Florida. That is shockingly low.

Dewpoints are in the teens across northern Florida. Wow.

Dewpoints across Florida as of 8pm:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Td

Temperatures reflecting a nw flow:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=T

[psyclone]

you could very well be right gatorcane and dewpoints have been running in the single numbers in the panhandle. that said, i have always associated super low dewpoints with cold potential in radiation events, not advection events. furthermore, the dewpoint at tampa has ramined in the upper 20's to near 30 since noon. and the thermometer seems disinclined to move much since sunset. all of these factors have me in "cautious optimism" mode until something changes.

[Ntxw]

you could very well be right gatorcane and dewpoints have been running in the single numbers in the panhandle. that said, i have always associated super low dewpoints with cold potential in radiation events, not advection events. furthermore, the dewpoint at tampa has ramined in the upper 20's to near 30 since noon. and the thermometer seems disinclined to move much since sunset. all of these factors have me in "cautious optimism" mode until something changes.

You make very good points. Decoupling of winds is important for maximum radiational cooling. The wind often times helps with preventing killer freezes (though doesn't help us feel any better). I hope this is the case for Florida.

[NDG]

brooksville is 39 with a dewpoint of 24 at 8pm. forecast low is 21. Tampa is 43 with a dewpoint of 28. the forecast low is 26. that's an awful lot temp dropping needed to reach those estimates...without the assistance of the usual predawn radiation dump that often tanks temps a few degrees within an hour. tampa only dropped 1 degree between 6 and 8pm.

Dewpoints are way low even in the Tampa area. Clearwater has a dewpoint of 29F at 8pm. That is telling me the atmosphere is becoming primed for a major temperature drop later on tonight.

Dewpoints are low even into southern Florida with mid to upper 30s along the southeastern coast of Florida. That is shockingly low.

Dewpoints are in the teens across northern Florida. Wow.

Dewpoints across Florida as of 8pm:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Td

Temperatures reflecting a nw flow:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=T

Dewpoints would have to drop at least 10-15 degs across central & southern FL if forecast lows were to verify. Not saying that they will not, as winds change more from a N to NW direction, as models forecast, dewpoints should be dropping after midnight.

[NDG]

00z soundings in Cape Canaveral shows that heights have risen 9mb since this morning.

[NDG]

I just looked back to Jan 9-10th period, when my temps dropped to 26 degs in my part of town. By this time of the night on Jan 9th I was already well below freezing approaching upper 20s, that was a killer freeze, we had almost 13 hrs below freezing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

10pm Florida Temperatures...

≤32F highlighted in light blue
≤27F highlighted in dark blue
≤22F highlighted in pink

Orlando (MCO) = 37F
Sanford = 36F
Tampa = 43F
Brooksville = 37F
Melbourne = 38F
Daytona Beach = 36F
Ocala = 34F
Jacksonville = 35F
Tallahassee = 33F
West Palm Beach = 44F
Miami = 50F
Fort Myers = 47F
Key West = 60F

nobody at freezing just yet

[NDG]

9pm Florida Temperatures...

≤32F highlighted in light blue
≤27F highlighted in dark blue
≤22F highlighted in pink

Orlando (MCO) = 37F
Sanford = 36F
Tampa = 43F
Brooksville = 37F
Melbourne = 38F
Daytona Beach = 36F
Ocala = 34F
Jacksonville = 35F
Tallahassee = 33F
West Palm Beach = 44F
Miami = 50F
Fort Myers = 47F
Key West = 60F

nobody at freezing just yet

10 PM, not 9 PM.

Temps are a good 2-5 degs warmer than what were forecasted to be for this time in many locations.

I am really starting to doubt that Orlando will reach low 20s like it was forecasted this morning, mid to upper 20s looks to be more reasonable to me.

[psyclone]

not a single station at or below freezing 4 hours after sunset. Tampa has only dropped 2 degrees in the past 4 hours.

[wxman57]

There is way too much wind for any help with radiational cooling tonight. Low temperature forecasts are going to bust.

[Extremeweatherguy]

---

10 PM, not 9 PM.

Temps are a good 2-5 degs warmer than what were forecasted to be for this time in many locations.

I am really starting to doubt that Orlando will reach low 20s like it was forecasted this morning, mid to upper 20s looks to be more reasonable to me.

Oops, sorry about that. I forgot to adjust for the timezone difference in my post.

[psyclone]

it's been apparent a bust was in the making for awhile now. thank goodness. we should have a good radiation freeze event tomorrow night. FWIW TPA finally slipped a couple degrees to 40 at 11.

[Scorpion]

Definitely doubt that we will get below 30 tonight. Only 37 so far, so 30 or so sounds about right. Definitely a far cry from 25 that was forecast earlier this morning.

[Lori]

It is below freezing here in Niceville, Fl at 29 degrees. The wind is calm. The forecast is for a low of around 22 degrees
Feels like it will verify. Brrr.

[gatorcane]

Just had a look at the 00z WRF. Latest guidance suggests the freeze line makes it as far south as inland southern palm beach including the metro areas but no freeze along the coast. The nws forecasted low of 25 for west palm seems much too low at this point. Also south of alligator alley does not freeze. On the west coast of Florida, along the immediate coasts of pasco and pinellas and southern pinellas is spared from the freeze tonight. Naples up to just south of ft. Myers does not freeze.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12am Florida Temperatures...

≤32F highlighted in light blue
≤27F highlighted in dark blue
≤22F highlighted in pink

Orlando (MCO) = 35F
Sanford = 34F
Tampa = 39F
Brooksville = 33F
Melbourne = 36F
Daytona Beach = 33F
Ocala = 30F
Jacksonville = 32F
Tallahassee = 31F
West Palm Beach = 41F
Miami = 44F
Fort Myers = 44F
Key West = 59F



1am Florida Temperatures...

≤32F highlighted in light blue
≤27F highlighted in dark blue
≤22F highlighted in pink

Orlando (MCO) = 34F
Sanford = 33F
Tampa = 38F
Brooksville = 32F
Melbourne = 35F
Daytona Beach = 32F
Ocala = 30F
Jacksonville = 31F
Tallahassee = 29F
West Palm Beach = 40F
Miami = 43F
Fort Myers = 43F
Key West = 58F

[Scorpion]

30 certainly sounds about right. I don't think I will ever believe a sub 30 low for the Orlando area, its just way too much of a heat island.

[Extremeweatherguy]

30 certainly sounds about right. I don't think I will ever believe a sub 30 low for the Orlando area, its just way too much of a heat island.

It happened three times this past January (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/data.php?fi ... Ojan10.txt), so its certainly not impossible. Definitely not as easy as it used to be though.

[FireRat]

37 degrees in west Broward, Sunrise near the Sawgrass mall to be exact. My thermometer read 37.6 just now and we still have 6 hours until the low is reached, shivers. We may dip below freezing out here.

Wind chills are expected to be between 10 and 15 degrees here by morning as said on Channel 7, wow!