Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[srainhoutx]

Tinker AFB and Gage reporting light snow at this hour.

[TwisterFanatic]

Rain falling here in Sallisaw. It only took a couple hours to get the atmosphere saturated. Temp is 41.

[Ntxw]

Very high reflective returns in southeast OKC and suburbs around tinker.

[SouthernMet]

A Moderate Band of rain is setting up across Oklahoma City to Shawnee line approaching Norman. Temperatures where the precip is falling range from 34-38 according to live reports. Areas where the heavier precip is falling may notice a wintry mix changeover of wet snow/rain and possibly sleet.

Reports just southeast of Oklahoma City confirm light snow associated with this band moving through the metro.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Temps continuing to fall under that heavier precip band. Spencer, on the NE side of OKC, is currently at 33F.

[Ntxw]

This is a picture from Koco (local okc station) of Woodward, OK earlier.

[SouthernMet]

This is a picture from Koco (local okc station) of Woodward, OK earlier.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/8161/woodward.jpg

And this was taken at 4:00pm.. They are still observing light snow, and have been for over 3 hours consistently. Wonder what this would look like now..

[Extremeweatherguy]

36-37F outside now with moderate precipitation falling. Feels like its about to changeover, as the raindrops are starting to take on a "slushy" characteristic.

[Ntxw]

36-37F outside now with moderate precipitation falling. Feels like its about to changeover, as the raindrops are starting to take on a "slushy" characteristic.

South of OKC is getting the high reflection now. Sounds about right for the changeover! OU is next in line.

[SouthernMet]

Radars now showing the snow transition south of OKC. It is just radar estimated, but it's detecting all snow. And also, it appears to be coming down at a pretty decent clip, curious to see how much of that is reaching the ground as snow at this point..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Rain/snow mix right now

had a nice burst of big flakes mixed with rain. Kind of let up a bit now though..

[Ntxw]

Heavy burst is south of OKC and shrinking. Looks like ending line (heavier precip) is approaching the north side. I'm curious to hear from Tinker AFB. Reflectivity was high there the longest. Perhaps someone close by received more than just flurries.

Arnett area (western) Oklahoma south of Gage unofficially 3+ inches. Again courtesy of KOCO and viewers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It appears as though that 5-10 minute burst of rain/snow is going to be the highlight of the night for me. I might get lucky and see a few more flurries here and there, but overall the radar trend is not looking good right now for continued heavier precipitation.

[wx247]

Regardless of how much you received, it has to be fun to watch it taking place. Now time to watch this weekend's system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Regardless of how much you received, it has to be fun to watch it taking place. Now time to watch this weekend's system.

Yes, it definitely was fun. After looking for many days like this would be a flurries/sprinkles "at best" event, tonight certainly over-delievered...especially for areas just north of me and also up in NW Oklahoma.

[TwisterFanatic]

Just watched about 30 of some decent flurries/light snow showers. Very pleasant to watch.

Weatherman says might need to start watching out for the next system. He says the models are starting to favor a more southern track which would mean snow for Oklahoma and Arkansas.

[Ntxw]

Just watched about 30 of some decent flurries/light snow showers. Very pleasant to watch.

Weatherman says might need to start watching out for the next system. He says the models are starting to favor a more southern track which would mean snow for Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Actually, the GFS a few days ago was the furthest south I've seen. Recently it has shifted north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-south for snow.

The Euro is even further north from the northern plains into the great lakes.

Canadian is inbetween the two (naturally) lol. Still have some time to change, but again when there is some sort of a consensus between them, you get a general idea. Missouri to the Great Lakes is prime real estate from what I see. A lot can still change.

GFS tonight on next week.



Euro



Canadian

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winter precipitation is still up in the air for this weekend in Oklahoma. It looks like the bulk will stay north and east of here, but you never know. We could very well see some wrap around, but it will all depend on the track of the low. Regardless of the small snow potential though, it is looking increasingly likely that we may be in for our coldest days of the season coming up late this weekend into early next week. If the latest modeling is correct, then the potential is definitely there for OKC to experience a sub-35F afternoon on Sunday and one or two sub-20F mornings (Sun & Mon). Breezy winds also look to develop behind this front, meaning low wind chills will be a concern as well.

[TwisterFanatic]

This is small trend im seeing in GFS ensemble mean.

6z ensemble mean



12z ensemble mean



18z ensemble mean



0z ensemble mean



Clear southern trend in the ensemble mean there. Will be interesting to see if it continues.

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z GFS still showing a fairly stout and cold airmass over the Southern Plains close to Christmas. Unfortunately for Texas though, not much precip as our drought is worsening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml