Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's probably too early to be looking past early next week, but for entertainment purposes, take a peek at what the 00z ECMWF is showing at hour 192:





That is quite the dump of arctic air it is showing surging into the eastern half of the USA!

The bulk of the coldest air goes just east of the southern plains, but we would still be dealing with quite a strong, albeit brief, cold snap if this scenario verified. These are the kind of fronts that can bring us those classic 20-40F temperature drops within just a few hours time as they pass through.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS has finally come around it seems. They have removed their all rain forecast for my location from earlier, and have replaced with with a 30% chance of "rain and snow" on Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

06z Nam has come around similar to the big boys. Pretty much a minuscule event with a mini virga blizzard at best. Lucky few in the Okla/Tx/Ks open prairies might see a stray flake if it can survive the intense heat of dry air pulverizing it at a billion mps into smithereens!

*all is dependent on model concensus verification and I am not responsible should it happen otherwise

[frigidice77]

I like what the ECMWR is showing. That one potent arctic airmass.

[wxman57]

Moisture still looks extremely limited as the disturbance drops southward across OK/TX Tuesday night. Could see a few flakes up in OK, but getting a few flakes in Dallas may be more of a challenge. South of Dallas, looks like a few patches of light rain, perhaps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z NAM composite reflectivity and soundings suggest that we will probably see a period of snowflakes or a rain/snow mix during the afternoon/evening on Tuesday. It doesn't show much in the way of accumulations though, mainly due to the fact that it has the surface temperatures a touch on the warm side. If the surface temperatures are slightly cooler though, then a few places might pick up a light dusting.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png


The 12z GFS continues to look only marginally exciting as well. It shows an increase in clouds late Tuesday, with some flurries/sprinkles likely around, but nothing too amazing overall. A few places do pick up a light dusting of snow if its accumulation graphic is to be believed, but this appears to be the exception, not the rule. It is worth noting that the 06z GFS looked slightly better, showing more places picking up light accumulations.

[srainhoutx]

The CMC suggests some light accumulations for OK. I will say that the storm track is not set in stone as of mid day Sunday for Tuesday. Let’s get the disturbance on shore and some U/A data in the ingest and see what the next 48 hours bring.

[Ntxw]

Our system isn't as robust as it was yesterday, though still tightly compact and looks to be heading for northern California. There is a lot of moisture coming up from the subtropics, so perhaps that might give some hope.

[iorange55]

I still think we'll get some type of surprise. A quick dusting or something, seems like the type of storm that would bring a surprise. It's only about 2 days away now, so I guess it really is time to start watching the system and what it does before it gets here.


It feels like its in January already.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Regardless of what happens next week, one thing's for sure, it is definitely a chilly one out there today.

As of 1pm, temperatures are still only in the mid to upper 30s here with wind chills several degrees colder. High temperatures are supposed to reach the mid 40s this afternoon, but with only a couple hours left to do so, it might be a struggle.

Current Temperatures:


Current Wind Chills:


UPDATE: It looks like we actually will be getting close to those forecasted highs. As of 3:10pm temperatures are now in the lower 40s. Still a very chilly day though..

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z ECMWF continues to show a massive blue norther arriving in about a week. Still looks like a brief, but intense, cold snap if this scenario actually plays out; with the coldest readings of the season likely..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS144.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS192.gif

At hour 168, the 850mb temperatures range from nearly -18C in northeast Oklahoma to -10 to -12C in Oklahoma City to below 0C in northern Texas. The surface front has already pushed off the Texas coast at this point, and a 1045mb high is charging down the plains. To give you an idea of the magnitude of the front in this run, the ECMWF has Oklahoma City's surface temperatures into the 60s Saturday afternoon, but then dropping into the teens by Sunday morning! That is a 40+ degree change in less than 24 hours.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: There appears to be a nation wide data outage with the NWS sites. Expect delays in AFD's and no radar images.

[frigidice77]

Whats a blue norther???? Thats an extreme temperature drop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Whats a blue norther???? Thats an extreme temperature drop.

It's just a southern plains, specifically Texas saying for a very strong cold front that can lead to large temperature drops within a short period of time.

[iorange55]

After the 00Z Nam the models have went downhill. Yuck. Oh well, we'll have more chances hopefully.

[Ntxw]

After the 00Z Nam the models have went downhill. Yuck. Oh well, we'll have more chances hopefully.

They've been going downhill for some time now, that one run of the NAM was somewhat the outlier compared to the globals. If I recall correctly, sometimes the NAM has the tendency to overdo qpf especially beyond 24-48 hours.

[srainhoutx]

NCF Alert Administrative Message
Sun Dec 5 22:31:25 2010 GMT
NOUS71 KNCF 052230
ADANCF
.
THE AWIPS SBN SIGNAL HAS BEEN RESTORED.
ALL NEW DATA IS PASSING WITHOUT ANY
PROBLEMS. WE HAVE RETRANSMITTED A SMALL
AMOUNT OF DATA, BUT MOST OF THE PREVOUS
DATA WAS LOST.
.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONTINUED PATIENCE.

[Ntxw]

Our 'storm' is bringing in copious amounts of moisture to California.

[vbhoutex]

Whats a blue norther???? Thats an extreme temperature drop.

It's just a southern plains, specifically Texas saying for a very strong cold front that can lead to large temperature drops within a short period of time.

Usually these are accompanied by strong winds and quick clearing of clouds to a blue sky also.

[Ntxw]

Tonight's 0z NAM is not promising at the least. It takes the storm further north after entering California before diving southeast. This would choke it from moisture (as seen by models for some time). My question is what will the plume of moisture just south of the system west of the Baja do...

Temps and precip this run favors eastern Oklahoma. But surface profiles seem warm, hence it shows no accumulating snow.