Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Extremeweatherguy]

Below is a comparison of the 12z ECMWF, 00z NAM and 00z GFS surface cold front locations for Thanksgiving morning...

12z ECMWF - valid 6am Thursday morning


00z GFS - valid 6am Thursday morning


00z NAM - valid 6am Thursday morning


The 12z ECMWF and 00z GFS are remarkably similar, while the 00z NAM looks way too slow.

please note that I have not posted all the fronts on the maps, only the cold front section that I have deemed most important to our weather across the southern plains.

[srainhoutx]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the end of November/first of December is beginning to look mighty cold. Perhaps even colder than what we will see for Thanksgiving. Stay Tuned, as they say...

[HockeyTx82]

We have a tree lighting on the square here in Denton on the 2nd of December so I will be watching the boards very close over the next week or two.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm; anyone notice that the models are starting to get more aggressive with the idea of overrunning precipitation (snow) Thanksgiving day across northeast OK up through MO?

Check out the 18z NAM:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

We will have to watch this possibility closely for northeastern parts of the southern plains

[TwisterFanatic]

The weatherman mentioned that during the 10 o'clock newscast tonight.

[Ntxw]

For future interests (next shot of cold air advertised next week), there is more snow cover in states/southern Canada at this time vs last year in the same period.

I used the data on the 21st of this year being that it doesn't have current data in for the 22nd or 23rd.

[orangeblood]

According to the European and Canadian models, it appears the Late Sunday - Tuesday timeframe next week is starting to look really interesting for wintry precip across the Southern Plains. With cold air draped across the northern US and energy coming out of the southwest, the setup has the potential for the first winter storm of the season across the Southern plains early next week.

[wall_cloud]

if the moisture can return in time. this Thanksgiving front is going to scour the moisture well south of the area.

[Ntxw]

if the moisture can return in time. this Thanksgiving front is going to scour the moisture well south of the area.

I don't think it will recover in time even with a system nearby. Sure do miss that SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Another great disco from Dodge City, KC...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE POTENT
AND IMMINENT COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

FOR TONIGHT, DID NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER, SINCE THE HYS AREA HAS
REMAINED SOCKED IN ALL DAY TODAY, AND A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDE UP IN THE CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND
PATCHY FOG WORDING IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, EXCEPT NORTH OF I-70 IN HAYS AND WAKEENEY AREAS,
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY FOR ANY
AREAS THAT MIGHT GET FOG, BUT WENT WITH THE WARMEST MINS IN THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR P28 WITH 41F, AND DOWN TO AS LOW AS 31F IN THE EHA
AREA, WHERE NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS (UNTIL LATE) SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING IN MY WEST AND A STEADY FALL
OVERNIGHT.

WHEN COMPARING THE NAM, RUC, GFS, GEM AND ECMWF MODELS, IT APPEARS
THE FRONT WOULD ENTER OUT CWA ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST, ABOUT 18Z IN GCK, 19Z IN THE DDC AND BY 22Z OR SO IN
OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. BUT, KNOWING THE SPEED OF COLD AIR CAN OFTEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MUCH FASTER THAN DEPICTED IN THE
MODELS, HAVE OPTED TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH 2-4 HOURS FASTER,
AND STILL FASTER IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. COLD AIR CAN PLUNGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE OR NO RESISTANCE. SO ALSO
LOWER MAX TEMPS IN MY WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY, DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SOUTHERN PLUNGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL ALSO HAVE FALLING DAY TIME
TEMPS AFTER THE FROPA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE OUR WESTERN 1/3RD
OF THE CWA HAS BEEN WITHOUT PRECIP IN SO LONG, THEY ARE PRIME FOR
ANY WILDFIRES THAT MAY GENERATE. SO, WILL BE ISSUEING A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FROM 10AM - 3PM WED, UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THERE. FURTHERMORE, I CONSIDERED MENTION FLURRIES WITH THIS FAST
CHARGING COLD FRONT. BUT SINCE NO MODEL GENERATURES PRECIP AS THE
FRONT CROSSES OUR CWA, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME.

ALL MODELS BRING THE COLD AIR THROUGH AND PUSH IT FAR SOUTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL OF OUR CWA. TEMPS SHOULD TUMBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 10F (GCK) TO 20F (P28) RANGE. WINDS WILL START
OUT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE FROM THE NORTH, AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT TOWARD THANKSGIVING MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL DIP TO AROUND -7F
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY, STILL THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
WITHIN THIS POLAR AIR MASS. DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF THANKSGIVINGS` MAX
T`S, LEAVING THEM IN THE 30F (HYS) TO 36F (P28) RANGE. /BURKE

[TwisterFanatic]

Very interesting forecast maybe setting up early next week. This is from the Tulsa NWS for Sallisaw, Oklahoma.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 57.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Monday: A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Clear, with a low around 30.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Sunny, with a high near 49.

[Ntxw]

Today's forecasts for Thanksgivings around the southern plains, plan accordingly .

OKC

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. North northwest wind between 13 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

DFW

Thanksgiving Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 38 by noon. Windy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Houston

Thanksgiving Day: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west.

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph.

Austin/SA

Thanksgiving Day: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 70. North northwest wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Amarillo

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Wind chill values between 2 and 12. North northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[srainhoutx]

La La Land 06Z GFS should start some chatter around here...

[Ntxw]

Knocking on the doorstep of the southern plains.

[srainhoutx]

Front just passed Liberal, KS. Heading into NW OK at this time.

[kb75007]

I read the other day on here that the temp. tomorrow for dallas would drop to 38 by noon. Is this still right? What are the temps. looking like for tomorrow? I've heard multiple different things!
Thanks

[TwisterFanatic]

Weather Channel now saying Winter Mix tomorrow during the afternoon in my area.

[somethingfunny]

Take a trip down US 287 tonight....




Rick Husband Amarillo Intl Airport
Lat: 35.23 Lon: -101.7 Elev: 3586
Last Update on Nov 24, 11:53 pm CST

Fair and Breezy

28 °F (-2 °C)
Humidity:72 %
Wind Speed:N 22 MPH
Barometer:29.83" (1008.4 mb)
Dewpoint:20 °F (-7 °C)
Wind Chill:14 °F (-10 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi.



Childress Municipal Airport
Lat: 34.44 Lon: -100.28 Elev: 1951
Last Update on Nov 24, 11:53 pm CST

Fair and Breezy

45 °F (7 °C)
Humidity:58 %
Wind Speed:N 23 MPH
Barometer:29.77" (1006.8 mb)
Dewpoint:31 °F (-1 °C)
Wind Chill:36 °F (2 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi.



Vernon
Lat: 34.23 Lon: -99.28 Elev: 1266
Last Update on Nov 25, 12:25 am CST

Fair and Breezy

49 °F (9 °C)
Humidity:60 %
Wind Speed:N 21 G 30 MPH
Barometer:29.74"
Dewpoint:36 °F (2 °C)
Wind Chill:42 °F (6 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi.



Wichita Falls, Sheppard Air Force Base
Lat: 33.98 Lon: -98.48 Elev: 1027
Last Update on Nov 24, 11:52 pm CST

Fair

68 °F (20 °C)
Humidity:61 %
Wind Speed:SW 9 MPH
Barometer:29.65" (1002.9 mb)
Dewpoint:54 °F (12 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi.



Decatur Municipal Airport
Lat: 33.26 Lon: -97.58 Elev: 1047
Last Update on Nov 25, 12:25 am CST

Fair

70 °F (21 °C)
Humidity:79 %
Wind Speed:S 10 G 20 MPH
Barometer:29.69"
Dewpoint:63 °F (17 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi.



Dallas / Addison Airport
Lat: 32.98 Lon: -96.83 Elev: 643
Last Update on Nov 25, 12:24 am CST

Partly Cloudy

74 °F (24 °C)
Humidity:74 %
Wind Speed:S 12 G 22 MPH
Barometer:29.70"
Dewpoint:65 °F (19 °C)
Visibility:10.00 mi



It's coming. You can even see the front's wind shift on radar near Wichita Falls stretching to north of Ardmore right now. The storms don't begin to fire until McAlester - I'm beginning to think that the rain will bypass us here in Dallas.

[Portastorm]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving!

At 6:30 am, looks like the polar front is stretched from Amarillo to just west of the Metroplex. 12 degrees in Dalhart at the moment ... bbrrrr!!!



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[HockeyTx82]

Anyone see this coming?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

OKZ031-032-039>048-050>052-TXZ086-089-090-251800-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0013.101125T1340Z-101125T1800Z/
SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-WICHITA-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAURIKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...
WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
740 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
CST TODAY.

* A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.


* MAIN IMPACT.. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED
SURFACES...TREES AND POWER LINES AND VEHICLES. MOST ROADWAYS
WILL REMAIN WET...BUT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN DRIVING TODAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
VARIABILITY IN ROAD CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.