STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NW DRT 25 SW JCT 10 WSW TPL 40 S TYR 30 WNW POE 25 SSW LCH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 25 N DAB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 E PHX
15 ENE FMN 45 SSW ALS TCC 35 W SPS 35 WSW PRX 30 E PBF 55 ESE MEI
20 WSW PNS.
...CNTRL/S TX...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NRN CA WILL CONTINUE SSEWD
THROUGH THURSDAY. BY TOMORROW EVENING THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER NWRN MEXICO. A WEAKER LEAD UPPER JET NOW MOVING INTO THE
BAJA AREA WILL PRECEDE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
S TX THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM
THE TN VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE SWD AND STALL
ACROSS S TX THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING N OF BOUNDARY
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX THURSDAY MORNING. S OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW TO
MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST OVER S TX...AND SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS REGION. THESE TWO FACTORS AND POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER S TX
WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN
CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS LEAD UPPER SPEED
MAX EJECTS THROUGH S TX. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS S TX WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N TOWARD CNTRL TX. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD
TOWARD SERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
OVERNIGHT.
***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 211200-221200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TX...MUCH OF LA...MUCH OF MS...WESTERN AL...AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER SOUTHEAST TX/LA BY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-60 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 850MB. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO MS/AL.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER EAST TX.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER LA. OTHER INTENSE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TX BY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE TX GULF COAST INTO LA. OVERNIGHT...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL NEAR MAIN SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS
ON DAY3.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 211200-221200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TX...MUCH OF LA...MUCH OF MS...WESTERN AL...AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER SOUTHEAST TX/LA BY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-60 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 850MB. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO MS/AL.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER EAST TX.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER LA. OTHER INTENSE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TX BY AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE TX GULF COAST INTO LA. OVERNIGHT...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL NEAR MAIN SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL AND TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS
ON DAY3.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EST THU FEB 20 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW...RAIN OR ICE STORM ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN...BUT IT
APPEARS ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ICE OR SNOW ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EST THU FEB 20 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW...RAIN OR ICE STORM ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN...BUT IT
APPEARS ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ICE OR SNOW ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND INTO FAR W TX...EXTREME SRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 202319Z - 210215Z
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN
DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER NRN MEXICO AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN COLD
AIR ALOFT / STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...PERSISTENT
LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES COULD
HELP ENHANCE/MAXIMIZE UPDRAFTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH
LARGE HAIL LIKELY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S DRT JCT 35 WNW TPL 65 NNE CLL 40 WSW POE 25 SSE LCH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN
50 ESE BLH 45 W PRC 30 ENE FLG 35 W GUP 10 E SAF 25 ENE CVS
50 SW CDS 25 SW SPS 20 NNW DUA 40 NW HOT 40 NE TUP 35 NNW BHM
50 ESE MEI 20 W BVE ...CONT... 40 SSE CTY 20 ENE JAX.
...SRN/CENTRAL TX...
STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW-
LEVEL WAA DOWNSTREAM OVER TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST OF MCALLEN TX NNEWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL COUNTIES INTO CENTRAL LA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO COASTAL TX AND LA. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN ROTATING STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FORCING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN TX INTO THE TX BIG BEND APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH A LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL ALSO BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
30-40 KT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW/INCREASING SWLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OVER SRN TX...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S DRT JCT 35 WNW TPL 65 NNE CLL 40 WSW POE 25 SSE LCH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN
50 ESE BLH 45 W PRC 30 ENE FLG 35 W GUP 10 E SAF 25 ENE CVS
50 SW CDS 25 SW SPS 20 NNW DUA 40 NW HOT 40 NE TUP 35 NNW BHM
50 ESE MEI 20 W BVE ...CONT... 40 SSE CTY 20 ENE JAX.
...SRN/CENTRAL TX...
STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW-
LEVEL WAA DOWNSTREAM OVER TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST OF MCALLEN TX NNEWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL COUNTIES INTO CENTRAL LA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO COASTAL TX AND LA. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN ROTATING STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FORCING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN TX INTO THE TX BIG BEND APPEAR TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH A LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL ALSO BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
30-40 KT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW/INCREASING SWLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OVER SRN TX...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SERN TX...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SRN MISSISSIPPI...SWRN ALABAMA...AND
THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 40 NE CRP 40 WNW VCT 30 SSE AUS SHV 15 E SEM 20 SSE CEW.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SSE DRT 30 ENE JCT 15 NW TXK 20 N PBF 20 SE MEM 30 WSW MSL
25 W GAD 30 ESE TOI PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 30 N GDP
30 WNW BGS 35 W MWL 15 SE FSM 20 ESE UNO 35 ESE MDH 10 NW SDF
35 NNW LOZ 30 WSW HSS 35 WNW CAE CRE ...CONT... 10 NNE MLB
10 WSW SRQ.
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING FROM
SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SW OF THE TX BIG BEND AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN TX TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 2. DEVELOPING LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ERN TX BY 22/00Z...WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN LA TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EWD FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF.
...SRN/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO SRN/ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MID
60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS NERN TX/NRN LA
INTO CENTRAL MS/AL...WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
OVER MUCH OF TX/LA WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH
COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN TX INTO SRN LA. THESE STORMS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT IN THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
FROM CENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED RESULTING IN RAPID
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS AS A SQUALL LINE/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP EWD INTO SERN
TX/LA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS/AL TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE LIKELY...WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM SERN TX
INTO LA GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SERN TX...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SRN MISSISSIPPI...SWRN ALABAMA...AND
THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 40 NE CRP 40 WNW VCT 30 SSE AUS SHV 15 E SEM 20 SSE CEW.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SSE DRT 30 ENE JCT 15 NW TXK 20 N PBF 20 SE MEM 30 WSW MSL
25 W GAD 30 ESE TOI PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 30 N GDP
30 WNW BGS 35 W MWL 15 SE FSM 20 ESE UNO 35 ESE MDH 10 NW SDF
35 NNW LOZ 30 WSW HSS 35 WNW CAE CRE ...CONT... 10 NNE MLB
10 WSW SRQ.
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING FROM
SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SW OF THE TX BIG BEND AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN TX TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 2. DEVELOPING LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ERN TX BY 22/00Z...WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN LA TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EWD FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF.
...SRN/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO SRN/ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MID
60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS NERN TX/NRN LA
INTO CENTRAL MS/AL...WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
OVER MUCH OF TX/LA WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH
COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN TX INTO SRN LA. THESE STORMS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT IN THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
FROM CENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED RESULTING IN RAPID
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS AS A SQUALL LINE/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP EWD INTO SERN
TX/LA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS/AL TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE LIKELY...WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM SERN TX
INTO LA GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 221200-231200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN AL...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST NC.
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
NORTHERN MS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY EVENING. VERY STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY MODE AT THIS TIME IS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY SWEEP FROM AL TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 221200-231200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN AL...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST NC.
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
NORTHERN MS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY EVENING. VERY STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY MODE AT THIS TIME IS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY SWEEP FROM AL TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 410 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONDO
TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTH OF AUSTIN TEXAS.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...AND IN REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 940 AM UNTIL 400
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PALACIOS TEXAS TO
20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 10. WATCH NUMBER 10 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 940 AM CST.
CONTINUE...WW 9...
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR VCT WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO
NWRN LA BY THIS EVENING WITH WARM FRONT NOW JUST INLAND SURGING NWD
ACROSS SERN TX/SRN LA. APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND
MAX NOW APPROAHCING LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND INLAND
ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TX ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LA...CNTRL AND SRN MS AND CNTRL AND
SRN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW GLS 30 WNW HOU 55 W LFK 25 E MLU 40 SW CBM 20 SE MSL
15 NNW GAD 45 NNE DHN PFN.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 40 W ALI 50 NW LRD
...CONT... 15 SE DRT 35 N BWD 45 SE PRX 50 NNW GWO 40 ESE MKL 45 SW
BNA 45 NW CHA 15 WNW ABY 10 W AQQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL SRQ
...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 65 SSE CDS 35 N LIT 30 S SDF 20 NNE HTS
20 WSW SHD 60 SW RIC 25 E ECG.
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO EARLY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH-CNTRL TX
TODAY...OVER THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT...AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS UNDERWAY ALONG THE TX COAST WITH WARM AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEING TRANSPORTED INLAND/NWD FROM THE GULF. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS SERN TX...SRN LA...AND MS/AL TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NWRN LA. AS UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...POWERFUL WSWLY FLOW WITHIN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROPEL COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH SEVERE SQUALL LINE LIKELY DEVELOPING AND
SWEEPING EWD FROM ERN LA INTO MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
...TX/LA...
STRONG AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WERE EXPANDING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF TX EARLY TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
QG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WHILE GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WAS FUELING ELEVATED CELLS IN THIS
REGION. LOW WBZ VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN AND NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD LATER THIS MORNING...WARM SECTOR WILL
EXPAND INLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL INTENSIFY...FROM
HOUSTON AREA EWD ACROSS SABINE RIVER INTO SWRN LA. SBCAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY
STRONG CONVECTION AS LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY
DIVERGENT MID/UPPER JET SPREADS OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY INTENSE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM 50KT TO OVER
80KT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/HIGHER SRH NEAR SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT...AND LOW LCL/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH...BOTH
SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARD AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR CLOUDS...AND
STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE CURRENT INDICATIONS WARRANT
A MDT RISK...UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
...MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG BOW ECHO WAS CURRENTLY RACING EWD ACROSS SRN MS WITH A WAKE
DEPRESSION AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THIS IMPULSE AS IT
REMAINS SUSTAINED BY STRONG WAA BUT MOVES AWAY FROM GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LA AND MS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX HAS
REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LA AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. PRESENCE OF STRONG MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
EVIDENT ON LCH AND LIX RAOBS THIS MORNING WILL FEED VIGOROUS STORM
UPDRAFTS AND EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER
TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN/CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A STRONG TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EWD FROM
LA AND CATCH UP AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. POWERFUL
SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND MORE
ISOLD TORNADOES IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS AL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TX ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LA...CNTRL AND SRN MS AND CNTRL AND
SRN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW GLS 30 WNW HOU 55 W LFK 25 E MLU 40 SW CBM 20 SE MSL
15 NNW GAD 45 NNE DHN PFN.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 40 W ALI 50 NW LRD
...CONT... 15 SE DRT 35 N BWD 45 SE PRX 50 NNW GWO 40 ESE MKL 45 SW
BNA 45 NW CHA 15 WNW ABY 10 W AQQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL SRQ
...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 65 SSE CDS 35 N LIT 30 S SDF 20 NNE HTS
20 WSW SHD 60 SW RIC 25 E ECG.
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO EARLY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH-CNTRL TX
TODAY...OVER THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT...AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS UNDERWAY ALONG THE TX COAST WITH WARM AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEING TRANSPORTED INLAND/NWD FROM THE GULF. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS SERN TX...SRN LA...AND MS/AL TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NWRN LA. AS UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...POWERFUL WSWLY FLOW WITHIN
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROPEL COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EWD ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH SEVERE SQUALL LINE LIKELY DEVELOPING AND
SWEEPING EWD FROM ERN LA INTO MS...AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
...TX/LA...
STRONG AND ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WERE EXPANDING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF TX EARLY TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
QG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WHILE GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WAS FUELING ELEVATED CELLS IN THIS
REGION. LOW WBZ VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN AND NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD LATER THIS MORNING...WARM SECTOR WILL
EXPAND INLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL INTENSIFY...FROM
HOUSTON AREA EWD ACROSS SABINE RIVER INTO SWRN LA. SBCAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY
STRONG CONVECTION AS LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY
DIVERGENT MID/UPPER JET SPREADS OVER THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY INTENSE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM 50KT TO OVER
80KT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/HIGHER SRH NEAR SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT...AND LOW LCL/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH...BOTH
SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARD AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR CLOUDS...AND
STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE CURRENT INDICATIONS WARRANT
A MDT RISK...UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
...MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG BOW ECHO WAS CURRENTLY RACING EWD ACROSS SRN MS WITH A WAKE
DEPRESSION AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THIS IMPULSE AS IT
REMAINS SUSTAINED BY STRONG WAA BUT MOVES AWAY FROM GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LA AND MS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX HAS
REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LA AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. PRESENCE OF STRONG MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG
EVIDENT ON LCH AND LIX RAOBS THIS MORNING WILL FEED VIGOROUS STORM
UPDRAFTS AND EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER
TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN/CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A STRONG TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING...STRONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EWD FROM
LA AND CATCH UP AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. POWERFUL
SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND MORE
ISOLD TORNADOES IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS AL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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