Let the games begin-JB's preliminary for 2011

[OuterBanker]

Last Thursday JB published his thoughts on the 2011 season.
First thoughts are 1996, 1999 and 2008 comparables.
Total storms 13 to 15, 8 to 10 hurricanes, 4 to 5 major.
Impact US at least 6 with TS, 3 or 4 hurricanes, one or two major.
I know it’s way too early for next season, but we still start the fun and games.
He was way off on impact this year, but dead on in numbers.
No one could have predicted the killer tough though, I say we hire it for next year,

[Florida1118]

We can't even finish one season without beginning another. To me, my guess would be a 2007 or 2008. I can't even call that guess educated though, It FAR to early to begin predicting.

[HURAKAN]

Anything yet on 2012? lol

[Hurricanehink]

Anything yet on 2012? lol

It's supposed to be the end of the world, so who knows

[SFLcane]

2011 will have an existing Nina to start, and still in a positive AMO phase in the Atlantic meaning another above normal season is likely.

[Macrocane]

I know it's still to early but I agree with JB that 1996, 2008 and 1999 may be good analogues.

[StormingB81]

Anything yet on 2012? lol

It's supposed to be the end of the world, so who knows

Actually they have said that they were off 50 years when reading it so 2012 will not be the end of the world anymore...so much for the movie...lol Here are a couple of articles

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/mayan- ... d=11926347

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/201 ... hpostponed

[wxman57]

It's definitely not too early to speculate on 2011. The current strong La Nina will not likely transition to El Nino during the next 6 months. Current forecasts are for a stronger La Nina at the start of the 2011 season than during the middle of this past season. That factor would favor an above-normal season. In addition, a continued warm AMO will likely contribute to a higher than normal number of major hurricanes. The ECMWF long-range pressure forecast doesn't go out all the way to next summer yet, but it does indicate lower than normal pressures across the deep tropics east of the Caribbean by next April. So most signs are pointing toward an above-normal season again in 2011, though most likely with fewer storms than 2010.

[Ptarmigan]

1996, 1999, and 2008 were very active and devastating years.

1996
14/10/6
% Hurricane=69.2%
% Major Hurricane=46.2%
ACE=166
ACE/Storm=12.8

Notable Storms
Fran
Hortense

1999
12/8/5
% Hurricane=66.7%
% Major Hurricane=41.7%
ACE=177
ACE/Storm=14.8

Floyd
TD11

2008
16/8/5
% Hurricane=50%
% Major Hurricane=31.3%
ACE=144
ACE/Storm=9

Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike

Average Prediction Based On Analog For 2011
14/9/5
ACE=162
% Hurricane=62%
% Major Hurricane=39.7%
ACE/Storm=12.2

2011 looks to be an above average season.

Average 1870-2010
9/5/2
ACE=91
% Hurricane=58.9%
% Major Hurricane=21.5%
ACE/Storm=9.8

I wonder about the Atlantic water by 2011. Could it be warmer than 2010?

[KWT]

1999 is probably a good match, 1955 is probably a decent match as well, both were second year Nina's. If the Nina does weaken quite alot then 2008 also becomes a possible match but frankly its way too early for that kind of talk...

I suspect at a very early time we are heading into another busy season, though its highly likely it won't be quite as explosive...oh and it'll probably also have a slower start IF its still a fairly decent 2nd year Nina which is looking at least possible...

As for the Atlantic, I suspect it won't be as warm as last year, La Nina's do tend to have a favouring towards stronger subtropical highs in winter due to the stronger polar jet which tends to slowly cool the tropics off whilst the subtropics I suspect would probably be a little warmer...

[ConvergenceZone]

I like JB, but he's just throwing a dart in the dark with his prediction of 1 to 2 majors to affect the USA. Didn't he predict a couple of majors to effect the USA this year as well? ........What happened there Jim?

[Ivanhater]

I like JB, but he's just throwing a dart in the dark with his prediction of 1 to 2 majors to affect the USA. Didn't he predict a couple of majors to effect the USA this year as well? ........What happened there Jim?

It is common knowledge that landfall predictions have a LONG way to go, as well as intensity. However, the vast majority of predictions are based on numbers, and that is getting better and better.

The predictions for a hyperactive season this year were spot one, despite the vocal doubters early this season. No reason to doubt the above average season forecast for next year.

The criticism of landfall predictions is beating a dead horse


If someone wants to try to improve the science of this one factor of seasonal forecasting then who cares. Seasonal number predictions use to be horrible before, but by persistence, it has improved.

[Macrocane]

I believe that Neutral years have more tropical cyclones affecting the US than La Niña years, just look at this examples.

Notable tropical cyclones in La Niña years since 1995, cyclones that made landfall in US are in bold (5 years):

Luis, Marilyn, Roxanne, Opal, Georges, Mitch, Dean, Felix, Noel, Alex, Karl, Tomas.

Only Opal and Georges made landfall in US.

Notable tropical cyclones in Neutral years since 1995 (6 years), cyclones that made landfall in US are in bold :

Cesar, Fran, Hortense, Keith, Allison, Iris, Michelle, Fabian, Isabel, Juan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, Gustav, Ike, Paloma.

[boca]

I believe that Neutral years have more tropical cyclones affecting the US than La Niña years, just look at this examples.

Notable tropical cyclones in La Niña years since 1995, cyclones that made landfall in US are in bold (5 years):

Luis, Marilyn, Roxanne, Opal, Georges, Mitch, Dean, Felix, Noel, Alex, Karl, Tomas.

Only Opal and Georges made landfall in US.

Notable tropical cyclones in Neutral years since 1995 (6 years), cyclones that made landfall in US are in bold :

Cesar, Fran, Hortense, Keith, Allison, Iris, Michelle, Fabian, Isabel, Juan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, Gustav, Ike, Paloma.

Thats some good info about the La Nina years.

[dwsqos2]

Using the MEI as a metric of ENSO strength, the hurricane seasons of 1996 and 2008 occurred during -ENSO events. So, it's possible by at least one measure to pretty much place Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Fran, Ceasar, and Hortense in the Nina column. You're probably using a strictly SST definition of ENSO.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data

[Ptarmigan]

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (C)-Cold Tongue Index (CTI)

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data/cti/

1996 and 2008 had negative CTI.

[KatDaddy]

The States were lucky with the with weaker Bermuda high which allowed many Fish storms this year. I am not so sure the same will hold true for next year

[Macrocane]

Using the MEI as a metric of ENSO strength, the hurricane seasons of 1996 and 2008 occurred during -ENSO events. So, it's possible by at least one measure to pretty much place Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Fran, Ceasar, and Hortense in the Nina column. You're probably using a strictly SST definition of ENSO.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data

Yeah, I was actually using only the SST definition, but anyways 1996 and 2008 would count as second La Niña years like 1999 and those years have more tropical cyclones making landfall in US than first La Niña years so the point of my post is the same, Neutral and second La Niñas have an increased US threat.

[RL3AO]

The way landfall predictions will improve is by issuing them and then finding out why you were wrong at the end of the season and use what you learned to improve future forecasts. Same as seasonal forecasts.

Same as tornado watches in the 1950's and 1960's. The SPC (then SELS) wasn't are good with predicting severe weather back then as they are today. They forecasted. They failed. They learned. They improved. (If there was a battlestar galactica of meteorology, that would be the opening sequence).

[ConvergenceZone]

The way landfall predictions will improve is by issuing them and then finding out why you were wrong at the end of the season and use what you learned to improve future forecasts. Same as seasonal forecasts.

Same as tornado watches in the 1950's and 1960's. The SPC (then SELS) wasn't are good with predicting severe weather back then as they are today. They forecasted. They failed. They learned. They improved. (If there was a battlestar galactica of meteorology, that would be the opening sequence).

The reason I get confused is that, why even issue a specific amount of storms to affect the USA when you don't even know? I mean, are they saying that they know where the high pressures are going to set up shop? the amount of troughs that are going to come down? and where the ULLs are going to form? which all play a big roll in directing a storm towards the land or not....It just seems like such a wild guess to the point that it's useless....

I think predicting the number of storms is fine. I have no problem with that.