ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

5 hours ago

[GCANE]

Good overshooting tops.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cyclonic chronic]

Good overshooting tops.

how big of a track change would there be if the center reforms in that big blob just south of haiti?

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[wxman57]

how big of a track change would there be if the center reforms in that big blob just south of haiti?

There may be a good chance that the center will reform. If it does so, then the track would shift to eastern Haiti vs. western Haiti. That would be worse for Port-au-Prince.

This isn't looking likely to become a hurricane before passing Haiti, though.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For sure,there will be plenty of analysis of this system from start to finish to see the different phases of intensity that it has endured and what factors caused it to spin down when it was supposed to ramp up.Also,I can see intensity up a little bit by Best Track in post season report just before it moved thru the Windwards.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110312, , BEST, 0, 139N, 757W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[margiek]

how big of a track change would there be if the center reforms in that big blob just south of haiti?

There may be a good chance that the center will reform. If it does so, then the track would shift to eastern Haiti vs. western Haiti. That would be worse for Port-au-Prince.

This isn't looking likely to become a hurricane before passing Haiti, though.

Agree. And it is going to arrive a couple days earlier.

The mid-level center that has reformed this morning was starting to form yesterday; it was the only location with obvious rotation in the VIS/IR yesterday. The band to the west where they placed the center yesterday afternoon (in a rainband) barely had any rotation, and it was a very broad rotation...and with a surface trough to the SW.

[tolakram]

12z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110312, , BEST, 0, 139N, 757W, 30, 1006, TD

That is clearly not where Tomas is. Based on early visible I place the center near 14.5N, 74W


LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[GCANE]

That is clearly not where Tomas is. Based on early visible I place the center near 14.5N, 74W

Very strong cell firing up just south of that.

[guyclaude08]

How is the shear this morning ?? And what are the chances for tomas to ramp up today ??

[GCANE]

How is the shear this morning ?? And what are the chances for tomas to ramp up today ??

CIMMS is reporting 4.1 m/s at 12:00Z.

Down from about 8 m/s yesterday and 10 m/s the day before.

However, it may not be analyzing this accurately since the LLC could be displaced from where it thinks it is.


AMSU has about 8 knots at 07:00Z

[cycloneye]

This position looks better than the best track one (139N, 757W)

03/1145 UTC (14.7N 73.9W) T1.5/2.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

This position looks better than the best track one (139N, 757W)

03/1145 UTC (14.7N 73.9W) T1.5/2.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

I agree, center is reforming well to the east. Means a more direct hit on Haiti, but also may mean it won't have as much time to intensify before reaching Haiti.

[cycloneye]

This position looks better than the best track one (139N, 757W)

03/1145 UTC (14.7N 73.9W) T1.5/2.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

I agree, center is reforming well to the east. Means a more direct hit on Haiti, but also may mean it won't have as much time to intensify before reaching Haiti.

Hopefully,recon will confirm the reformation when they go this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

You guys were right. The structure really did break down.


Agree, new center is east.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not forecasting Tomas to become a hurricane at the 11 AM Advisory.

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.1N 75.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 76.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 76.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 75.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 74.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 72.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 69.0W 55 KT