BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL
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BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL
5.0N 107.6E - convection extends even across the equator with this large system. Heavy rain and strong winds here the past two days.
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:14 am, edited 6 times in total.
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 108.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. A
300238Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MODERATE NORTH-TO-NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FLANKING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS AT THE CORE ARE LIGHTER
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN ALSO BE SPOTTED IN
MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION, NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DEPICTED
IN ASCAT. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND SHOWS NO IMMINENT SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THE DISTURBANCE LIES WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IS SUPPRESSING EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND HAS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. A
300238Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MODERATE NORTH-TO-NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FLANKING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS AT THE CORE ARE LIGHTER
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN ALSO BE SPOTTED IN
MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION, NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DEPICTED
IN ASCAT. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND SHOWS NO IMMINENT SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THE DISTURBANCE LIES WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IS SUPPRESSING EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND HAS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W
Its interesting to see that the Thai and Malaysian met departments upped this to a tropical depression before landfall, so unofficially we have a basin crosser. IMD have also started to classify 99W as Depression BOB 05 according to the all india daily weather reports
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- WestPACMet
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PERSISTING OVER THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAT YAI INTERNATIONAL
(VTSS) HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 6 MB'S (OBSERVATION
OF 1003 MB AT 01/16Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. THIS SYSTEM WAS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ON THE ABPW. SEE REF A (ABPW10 PGTW 010600)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), PERSISTING OVER THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAT YAI INTERNATIONAL
(VTSS) HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS) OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE OF 6 MB'S (OBSERVATION
OF 1003 MB AT 01/16Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. THIS SYSTEM WAS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ON THE ABPW. SEE REF A (ABPW10 PGTW 010600)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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- WestPACMet
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W
Some of my thoughts on this invest! As usual gave you guys at storm2k here a shout out. Lots of good information on this site.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVtnix47AEY[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVtnix47AEY[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR
ecmwf strengthens this to a possible major cyclone then weakening before landfall in india
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR
Thailand stamping the TD on it as it moved over Phuket
Phuket Radar
Phuket Radar
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- WestPACMet
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR
Really starting to think this one has potential to develop. My thoughts for today on it.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaiMIDRhnFI[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaiMIDRhnFI[/youtube]
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- Crostorm
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W FAIR
WTIO21 PGTW 031500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041500Z.
//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041500Z.
//
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- WestPACMet
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA
NGPS and GFS both developing this system very strong now.
NGPS BELOW
NGPS BELOW
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA
My thoughts on the TCFA 99W today. Really think this could develop, what are your guys thoughts.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljVWspQpWA0[/youtube]
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljVWspQpWA0[/youtube]
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA
From IMD New Delhi
BOB 05/2010/01 Dated: 04.10. 2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal
Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.00N and long. 92.00E about about 1150 km east of Batticaloa, 1400 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1450 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.it would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 72 hours.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
BOB 05/2010/01 Dated: 04.10. 2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal
Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.00N and long. 92.00E about about 1150 km east of Batticaloa, 1400 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1450 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.it would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 72 hours.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
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Re: BOB (NIO): INVEST 99W TCFA
From IMD New Delhi
BOB 05/2010/02 Dated: 04.11. 2010
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 91.00E about about 1050 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1350 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours.. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
BOB 05/2010/02 Dated: 04.11. 2010
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 91.00E about about 1050 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1350 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours.. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
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Re: BOB (NIO): Depression [INVEST 99W TCFA]
From IMD New Delhi
BOB 05/2010/03 Dated: 04.11. 2010
Time of issue: 1430 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 90.50E about about 1000 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1250 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
BOB 05/2010/03 Dated: 04.11. 2010
Time of issue: 1430 hours IST
Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch
The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 90.50E about about 1000 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1250 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.
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- WestPACMet
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ECM is quite slow on moving this making landfall on Sunday/Monday as probably a healthy storm, nothing like Giri but I do think we may get a decent storm out of this area.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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