"Wanting" A Hurricane to Hit

[MWatkins]

I am quoting a post I saw in the Richard discussion, which had nothing to do with Richard:

Is it me or does it seem like almost everyone from South Florida really wants this storm to come to them?
Constantly arguing with the models that don't agree... Saw the same thing with Paula.

This board, and others like it all across the internet, is FILLED with people who want to experience interesting weather, including hurricanes. I happen to be lucky enough to be able to do that wherever in the US, but most people simply don't have that opportunity.

I think it's perfectly natural for people enthusiastic about tropical systems to somehow "want" to experience them up close, the same way some people love snow, or tornadoes etc. No one wants the destruction these things can cause, so it's naturally a conflict, but it happens.

The reason you are seeing "Florida people" in this thread is because the system would have threatened Florida, so "Florida" people tuned in.

Earlier this season, with all of that activity in the western gulf, if you go back and look at the storm threads, I bet you over 70% (or more) of the posts came from Texas and LA residents. I am sure of it...

Back when I had that talk show on the internet that this forum was named from, we had far more listeners when storms were out in the open Atlantic than when storms were heading to a specific area. Why, because most (not all) people really care when they are threatened, and don't care much at all if they have no chance of seeing a storm.

It's not just a Florida deal, every location has the same thing happen. However, the US gulf coast population is concentrated in Florida and Texas, which is why you have this nonsense debate between "west" and "north" when storms could affect either state.

For a perfect example of that kind of stupidity, take a look at the Ike thread from 2008.

And, incidentally, I still have nightmares from my experience in Galveston from that storm.

So, bottom line is...this is a really shallow topic. By that logic, no one should log into this message board unless they don't like to experience hurricanes, or at least don't find them interesting. If that were true, there would be about 15 people logged in right now.

This type of discussion honestly makes me wonder why I even bother.

MW

[Ntxw]

This is a weather forum and all opinions about weather on topic should be welcomed.

Floridians with weather interest like watching Hurricanes (my assumptions) because that's their weather phenomenon as the plains people have severe weather, northeast via nor'easters etc. I totally understand the interest there.

I think the problem sometimes is -removed- rather than interpreting with the tools given to you but rather making argument of what you want something to do. Some people use this information to plan about things as they trust the knowledge of well informed people, which can turn out to be a nuissance if it's relied on -removed-. This is not just people in Florida with hurricanes, it happens lots of times with snow as well. We should take a look at some accuwx boards and you'll know what I mean.

Storm2k overall is a great board with well informed readers and imo isn't as bad with things like this compared to other forums.

[T'Bonz]

I've lived in Florida for almost 30 years, and so of course I've sat helpless while a hurricane has raged about my house. Wilma cured me of my "I want to see a decent hurricane" desire. I *never* want to sit through a major.

As MWatkins said, it's only natural to be more interested in a storm that might head your way. It's not -removed- (or even wishing the storm away), it's just monitoring and being alert just in case one swings my way.

Although after enough time here, I pretty much follow the Atlantic basin storms, even if they've no chance of heading my way. The ones in Asia, not so much.

[andrewsurvivor]

While I understand the "excitement" of experiencing a hurricane, it worries me that most people don't understand what a truly "major" cane is like. As my name implies, I was in South Dade during Andrew, running from room to room wondering if we'd be alive when the sun came up. My biggest concern is most people in So. Florida have not been through "a big one". It worries me when I hear people say they've been through Wilma so it doesn't scare them, it was exciting. Not to discount Wilma in any way, however, for those of us living through Cat 4's and 5's, Wilma was a sneeze. As well, even a Cat 1 can cause a lot of damage. Doesn't really matter what strength if a tree crashes through your roof or a flying missle penetrates your home so even a low category storm can be very dangerous if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Please understand I'm not labeling anyone, just a word to the wise, be careful what you wish for. For me anyway, watching and tracking storms is totally fascinating and I believe that's why most of us are here. However, first and foremost is safety of all whether it's your area or not.

PS For those who rode out Wilma, please remember many of us had no power for weeks. After you "experience" the storm, you have to get through the aftermath.

[Weatherfreak000]

I think we all recognize that to a certain extent. Personally, whenever I guess "-removed-" (if you would call it that- I know its a sensitive term) is prevalent you have everyone take their stances on how they feel about it. The important thing for me is while sure, be excited about the potential or sure, your fearful of a strike so your complaining and hoping the thing fails apart or goes away from you, I understand all that but make sure your not posting anything that can be regarded as Spam or not factual.


For example, Floridians (and others) were highly critical early in the development cycle towards those who favored the NGOM Richard solution. Although that has still yet to verify, a debate was caused naturally because of this, and for me I feel it stems from fear. The individuals that want the action (and why wouldn't you want Richard? Potentially weak sheared TS...) are fearful because they see their chances slipping away I guess.

So what ends up happening is arguments based on Climatology and model bias and what have you occur, and they pretty much all stem from the same fear. I personally was quoted by a fellow member (who I won't name- I remember who it was) who came right out and posted a sharp criticism just because I favored a NGOM solution. This is the same old story, and as Mr. Watkins noted it is one side- versus the other.

Just so long as it doesn't give the impression of wrong information, I am all for it. Debate is definitely part of the fun here.

[Huckster]

I am 28 years old as I write this. I was born in south Louisiana, and have spent most of my 28 years here, with a brief stay in Mobile, Alabama. Most of the time the weather here is rather boring. I don't get excited when the forecast is for "highs in the mid 60's and lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's." After working in construction this year, I have grown to hate cold weather, and inside an oil refinery, there's no relief from the cold, especially this past winter. You just deal with it because you have to.

You learn to deal with hurricanes as well when you live along the Gulf Coast. If you don't learn to live with it, you might very well die. If you don't understand what hurricanes can do, and how deadly they can be, then move. Move somewhere safe from hurricanes. Otherwise, if you intend to stay along the coast or even 100, 200, 300 miles inland, don't say you did not know what was coming when a major hurricane comes ashore. History repeats itself over and over and over and over and over.....

If you're a coastal or near coastal resident in an area known to have many significant hurricanes, and you have NOT actually gone through one yourself, you might want to take the weekend off (that might mean missing something truly educational, like a football game) and go to your library and look through the microfilm copies of old newspapers to find out how bad such and such hurricane (from whatever year the storm struck) was in your area. You might be surprised. It will at least give you a brief education on your area's hurricane history, better than looking at just the Unisys tracks since 1851.

It's also important to remember that most people seem to have hurricane amnesia if they did not actually lose their homes or loved ones, or at least suffer greatly in a hurricane. Hurricanes have been getting progressively stronger in the Baton Rouge, LA area since at least 1860. Have Louisiana hurricanes been getting progressively stronger since then? I doubt it. Wetlands loss and population increase largely account for the more severe effects of hurricanes in Louisiana. Don't forget the Oct. 1893 hurricane though, one of the deadliest hurricanes in US history. "Every major north Gulf of Mexico hurricane weakens before landfall." I don't think that's true, and even if it were, I would counter "every New England hurricane weakens before landfall." Did Long Island know that? If it did, did it actually care when the 1938 hurricane struck?

As far as wanting a hurricane, who cares? You want to see some wind and "action"? Go for it! Just make sure you are prepared. I'm a Christian, and I believe in prayer, but I also believe that people need to be responsible insofar as they are able. If you live along the Gulf Coast, do you really believe that if you pray for the max summer temperature to be 88 degrees with 27% r/h that it will actually materialize? If such were to happen, what do you think would be the situation for the interior of this country? Without a miracle, Iowa would still see temperatures of around 100 degrees with dewpoints around 80.

If you want a hurricane, think of it like getting drunk. Drink beer, smoke some cigarettes, eat some salty potato chips, chase it down with some more beer. Exciting. Then the storm passes. No more beer, cigarettes, or potato chips, and you have a hangover and a lot of work to do, like digging out that chainsaw (if it's two stroke, you better have mixed that gasoline and oil already) to cut through all the trees and limbs that have fallen on your street, trying to make sure your immediate family is all alive, throwing out everything in the freezer or refrigerator (or cooking it right fast if you remembered to fill up that propane tank). That's a good case scenario. What if you lose municipal drinking water and power for 10 or more days? My grandparents, almost 80 years old, endured just that during and after Gustav. I went through a couple of days of it myself. A milk jug is not the most pleasant waste receptacle and showering at night with undrinkable water is not really much fun either.

[Frank2]

Some interesting comments here - a topic like this generates some very deep thoughts, since it often involves more than a love of weather, though I'd agree that "weather" to most of us usually means adverse weather of some type (though in reality "weather" also means clear skies and light winds), but of course the issue is how the adverse weather affects the humans that live underneath the clouds...

The drunk analogy of the last post is true, and that was my experience with Hurricane Andrew and Wilma - but especially Andrew, since not only was the house lost, but the community as well (since no community ever is rebuilt to be exactly what the former community was like before the disaster), and what followed for the thousands affected was nothing short of pure human suffering of varying degrees, so while it might go against our evil grain, in a certain sense, to say we shouldn't wish for bad weather - it's always the right thinking not to wish for a hurricane to affect anything or anyone, since a hurricane on a planet void of humans or any other life is one thing - but we don't live on that kind of planet, so it's always better to at least hope for clear skies and light winds...

Frank

[Cryomaniac]

These kind of threads are often pretty controversial, but usually pretty interesting to read. As someone who, in my current location, is not likely to ever experience a hurricane I think I have a fairly balanced view on it. Yes, we want to be able to have open debate because otherwise it basically defeats the purpose of being a message board. On the other hand, people wishing harm on others is clearly not the right way to go.

The main issue, and therefore the most controversy, is in what constitutes those two things. There is a difference between saying that you want the rain bands of a low end cat 1 because a certain area needs the water and saying that you want a cat 5 to destroy somewhere for whatever reason. Obviously it's rarely as black and white as that (if it was, we might not have this thread).

I don't think there is anyway to make it black and white either. You will always have people who take something the wrong way, or take offence to something when none was meant. That's the nature of the internet, and of conversation in general. I don't think you can "police" -removed- in anyway other than on a case by case basis. As was said above, as long as people aren't being intentionally misleading or offensive I don't really see the problem. Obviously some do. I suppose it's up to the mods to try to find the boundary. As long as it stays consistent I see no problem with handling it as they always have.

[wxman57]

When I was a kid, I wanted all hurricanes to hit south Louisiana (me) so that I could experience them. As I got older, I acquired more and more responsibilities as I got married and purchased a home. I still get excited about getting to experience SOME wind (weak TS at most). But after going through Ike 2 years ago and having no power for 2 weeks, I think I can do without another hurricane hit.

I realize that many on the forum here are very much like I was as a kid. That's fine. What bothers me is that some of them let their desires to be hit rule their thinking as far as the forecast (i.e., -removed-). Makes it hard for those here who are just trying to get storm info to tell if there is a threat to them. So wish all you want for a hurricane to hit you, just don't base your forecast/prediction on that wish.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Couldn't agree more wxman47. Essentially that is what I was trying to say. Wishcast sure, whatever you want is fine. Just don't say, "Well the hurricane is such and such, it's coming to such and such...and I got the model run/climo map to prove it"


Your not really proving anything, except that model runs and climo maps and even the NHC cone is nothing more than data, your subjective reasoning behind why the data shows what it does cannot reflect objectivity because the goal is to see evidence that swings in your favor, ignore the evidence that doesn't.

Again, HWRF/GFDL South Florida vs. Every other model you can think of with Richard is a great, great example.

[SootyTern]

I realize that many on the forum here are very much like I was as a kid. That's fine. What bothers me is that some of them let their desires to be hit rule their thinking as far as the forecast (i.e., -removed-). Makes it hard for those here who are just trying to get storm info to tell if there is a threat to them. So wish all you want for a hurricane to hit you, just don't base your forecast/prediction on that wish.

Nice post. I think the new '-removed-' has become the guessing or seasonal numbers game some people are playing on the board: people who guess a high number are bullish on everything developing and people who guess low are bearish. Same with deciding in advance a particular storm will recurve/head west/hit my state/not hit my state; it influences how some folks interpret the data and they only see what supports their position and ignore conflicting information. If you're a longtime lurker or poster you can tell who is biased in what way and who does a better job of looking at what is actually happening for their analysis, but I can see how someone just here briefly for info on a storm headed their way may get misled/confused. Hence the disclaimer's function...probably could be used more often. But overall there is some excellent analysis on this board for the weather nut that wants to go deeper than what you get on TWC and since we can't get enough Stacy Stewart discos to satisfy our appetites...

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
No question, there is no better source of Hurricane info out there for just anyone. Storm2k Admin can pride themselves on that.

[Florida1118]

Do I hope for a Hurricane? No. But when you look back, its natures way of re-setting us. Look at Miami. After Andrew, Miami had much better building codes. N.O., better levees are now in place and stronger buildings. Really, there is no real reason anyone has to die in a hurricane. If the Gov. and people work together, everyone is safe which is priceless. But as it turns out, it seems to be the opposite. The Gov. issues warnings, and no one listens, and then you have death. Unfortunate as it is, as long as there are incompetent people, there are going to be deaths. So I'm not getting the whole it causes death debate because its only the arrogant who don't want to listen that perish. (I'm talking about the US. I do realize that getting word to certain parts of CA counties would be difficult to reach everyone in time with Mountains etc.)

[Frank2]

I didn't always live in South Florida, and when a child I'd often get VERY excited at the thought of a snowstorm or blizzard - until my Dad wasn't able to go to work (in those days if you didn't work you didn't get paid), or if we ran out of my beloved glass of milk or enough bread to make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, so often it's the matter of a very young mind not understanding the consequences of what we are asking...

Often Beaver Cleaver would get in similar dire straits (not the rock group - lol), and Ward (his Dad) would end up telling him the same exact thing, that before you decide you want a certain thing you better consider the consequences it'll bring, because almost everything in this life comes with a certain level of consequence, and especially if it's something negative that has an affect on our daily life...

Just this morning there was a 7.7 magnitude earthquake and tsunami once again in Indonesia - but I'm sure on certain earthquake message boards there are those who'll say, "I'd like to experience an earthquake just once", but for sure they do not know what they are asking, and the same is true of a major hurricane - everyone who has lived through a Cat 3 or higher have always said they'd seen enough and do not wish to live through another...

Of course the best way to view a hurricane is from the Shuttle or ISS, but as we know that incredible view is rare, though the few who have witnessed a hurricane that way are always humbled at the power of creation...

Frank

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I used to be a crazy wish-caster a few years ago, wanting to experience a thrill. But as I gained more knowledge
I understood that hurricanes are not very nice things to experience.

[Recurve]

Also, I think some of what could be thought of as -removed- is the opposite -- it's fearcasting. When you're in a place like south florida, the Keys, the panhandle, places where hurricanes just can't avoid forever, and some of the worst have hit, you are looking for the slightest chance that the synoptics could change or be misread and the threat will come your way, until you are absolutely certain it won't. I'm way past wanting anything more than a tropical depression, and even that scares me, after going through or seeing the effects or at least fleeing from Wilma, Katrina, Georges, Floyd (87), Andrew, Rita, Irene at least. I watched the outlier GFDL predict a Cat 5 Katrina to head almost due South toward the Keys from Palm Beach, and while the intensity was completely off, the track turned out to be pretty close. I watched Ike do an unbelievable dodge south away from the Keys and into Cuba when we were feating the worst. I was a newbie and not paying much attention when Andrew was heading straight for Florida -- I was canoeing the Loxahatchee all day Saturday, Aug. 22 1992, woke up at noon on Sunday in Coconut Grove with the radio shouting we were under mandatory evacuation orders....

Point is, as you all know, there's no tone of voice in forum postings. Questions, doubts, arguments with models, suggested scenarios that may seem like silly -removed- are really a way for some people to reassure themselves, by always considering the worst case/unlikeliest scenario, because they are afraid of what could happen, not because they want it to.

[snowcane180]

That so CRAZY to want a hurricane to hit. I want a moderate tropical storm to make landfall here in southere georgia. Lol! Most people want storms to hit so they get school or work cancelled. I have never been in a hurricane,ts,tornado,or hail storm.

[Migle]

Well, I think there's a fine line between -removed- for a storm to come to you and to forecasting a storm to come to you. If some makes a forecast that a storm is going to come to their state or city, but backs it up with some good points as to why, then I'm ok with that.

But there's a difference when someone says "I think this one is going to Texas" or "I want this one to go to Texas" (Sorry Texas, not just you guys ) and all the models show a Florida landfall.

As for what Florida1118 said, that is somewhat right. The city (New Orleans) is better now after the storm and we have came back stronger. Were united once again, kinda like what happened to the whole US after 9/11. But after a while, people seem to forget and things fall apart. I just hope that doesnt happen to us.

[Kyuubi]

I used to be a crazy wish-caster a few years ago, wanting to experience a thrill. But as I gained more knowledge
I understood that hurricanes are not very nice things to experience.

I was one... still am a bit but any time I try to "wishcast" I think of Hurricane Wilma which blew off the shutters on our back sliding glass door. In hindsight it was kinda funny that they all flew off and then landed in a neat pile, but there was a real risk that those could have become projectiles. Let's just say it was an experience I'd rather not have again

[Category 5]

This is my approach.

I don't want it to happen but it's inevitably going to, and when it does, I want to be there.