ATL : TOMAS - Models
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The GFS op run is quite abit slower then it has been though, not reaching the Caribbean Islands before day 6 now and quite a fe of the ensemble members are slower then that from the looks of things...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re:
caneman wrote:I'm fairly certain it won't come to FLorida too but I was also fairly certain the last storm would come to Florida and well we know what happened there so I'll take a wait and see approach.
according to all the NWS bureaus around the state. A strong front will pass thru the Florida area late next week so that should keep Tomas away from us.Not a slam dunk but 99.9% sure of it.0.01% unsure.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Yep..new Euro still does not recurve and leaves a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean
Interesting. Why does the euro not show a stronger system initially though?
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
gatorcane wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Yep..new Euro still does not recurve and leaves a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean
Interesting. Why does the euro not show a stronger system initially though?
Has the Euro been right this year I know they did well last year.I think the GFS has got them this year so far.
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Thats the question Gatorcane, whilst it does look like steering currejnts may slacken I think the ECM probably is underestimating how strong Tomas gets in the short term and thus it'll probably underdo the latitude gain until the upper ridge shunts the system back westwards.
Looking more and more like a Hazel track in the Caribbean...
Looking more and more like a Hazel track in the Caribbean...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models
I do agree that GFS has outperformed the Euro this year but you can't discount the possibility of the Euro possibly being right. Any storm possibly sitting below Cuba is worth paying attention to.
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
Vortmax1 wrote:Trough is not deep enough to pick it up...so it keeps moving west or westnorthwest towards the western caribbean
Yep...I realize that.
But there doesn't seem to be much agreement with that forecast does there?
There is actually good agreement on the trough getting Tomas. We are discussing the outlier possibilities.
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Michael
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Re:
Vortmax1 wrote:Actually...NO agreement!
Wow at the TVCN going straight into Haiti. That's pretty chilling.
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
Vortmax1 wrote:We are discussing the outlier possibilities.
I'm not discussing any outlier here.
The ECM is saying something I need to hear.
But the forecast is 10 days out and could change...but the ECM is still hanging tough with the cut-off forecast!
Makes me think more than twice.....
The Euro IS the outlier.
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Michael
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