ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[chrisjslucia]

Can anyone advise on likely changes in wind direction - from where next and when? Still coming at us from the North / North East and I'd guessed this would have changed by now.

It will shift to the SE within the next couple of hours, and when it does, I expect the wind to be really strong (especially in the south of the island by Hewanorra Airport)! So, be prepared.

The preceding response is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks Abajan, I can see it now on the French radar, in fact we're currently getting a north wind plus gusts from the south east!

[expat2carib]

Rain became torrential. Very chaotic wind pattern.

[OURAGAN]

I think Thomas is Stationnary E/NE of St Vincent since a few hours, i can see that on radar of Martinique it does not move at all

[cycloneye]

I think Thomas is Stationnary E/NE of St Vincent since a few hours, i can see that on radar of Martinique it does not move at all

Lets see in 3-6 hours,how it moves.But definitly it has slowed on the foward motion.

[Gustywind]

Rain became torrential. Very chaotic wind pattern.

hey be safe and dry !

[snowcane180]

this system has really intensified since yesterday as a wave. I very well think this could easily become a cat 4

[Gustywind]

[OURAGAN]

it is moving now, north of ST VINCENT and south of St Lucia

[Aquawind]

[expat2carib]

it is moving now, north of ST VINCENT and south of St Lucia

Yes it is. I experienced the same feeling as you that it's been stationary for some hours.

The system didn't move on the Martinique radar. It's moving now on the radar.

[Gustywind]

Tomas has difficulty to find its self with the relief of the St Vincent and St Lucia? ?

[Sanibel]

If Tomas hit the islands right at the edge of a transition from Atlantic airmass/synoptic to Caribbean it might temporarily hang-up.

[fci]

If he slows down and makes the turn earlier; maybe he crosses DR and Haiti can be spared the worst effects?

[Ivanhater]

If he slows down and makes the turn earlier; maybe he crosses DR and Haiti can be spared the worst effects?

The trough that might turn Tomas is not going to have any impact on the system for a while. A ridge is forecast to continue to build a top of Tomas for the next few days. That will move Tomas westward for a while.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Important excerpt of 5 PM discussion.

HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND PINCH OFF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 120
HOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
RIDGE AND CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING TOMAS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND BEGIN TO MOVE POLEWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR
SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Seems the turn towards Haiti is becoming more pronounced. It's still ironic how they missed all the other storms in the Atlantic, yet this will probably be one of the last storms of the season. And possibly one of the strongest.

[snowcane180]

why is most of haiti deforested? any reasons?

[KWT]

I bet this one goes east of the NHC forecast, but for now we will have to wait and see, probably going to have a solid 5-7 days in the Caribbean though and thats probably enough for this to become quite the hurricane IMO...

Presentation looks great on that radar, and outflow is just insane as well...

[HurricaneStriker]

I think Tomas will be the hurricane that gets 2010 to the hyperactive point in Accumulated Cyclone Energy - 153.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.