ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Aquawind]

The pressure didn't rise at Hewannora. They messed up the METAR code and erroneously reported 1017 mb at 15z, when it should have been 1007 mb.

Notice the pressure rise and windspeed drop in Hewanorra..between bands I would guess..

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

There ya go..I should have put a question mark on that it seemed rather odd alright..

[Recurve]

Thanks WXman for the post this morning. As usual your analysis is clear and definitive, and for me reassuring but off course very troubling for Hipaniola.

For those of you in Florida somewhat concerned about Tomas, Tomas is NOT going to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. There will be a major trof axis across the eastern U.S. extending well south through the Gulf next week. Upper level winds should be out of the southwest at 50+ kts from the Bay of Campeche northeast across the Yucatan and western Cuba. SW winds of 50-80 kts across south Florida next week. You're protected. As Tomas passes south of the DR/Haiti it should run into a brick wall and slow to a crawl. As the trof pushes eastward across the NW Caribbean, Tomas should take a very sharp right turn, probably into Haiti, possibly the DR.

[Aquawind]

Eyewall rather ragged looking..

[pricetag56]

where are all the people who said the season was gonna be dead. but one thing irks me. Why dont they find somewhere for the people in haiti to go live. the US has all this money and people are living in tents. As powerful as this storm is probably going to be many of those people likely wont survive if they take a direct hit. even a brush from a 3 or 4 wouild kill those people. WTF is wrong with the world.

[plasticup]

GFDL is showing a 119 knot (Cat 4) in the Caribbean Sea. That's a tad more bullish than the NHC, but given the setup (and the season) I think it is reasonable.

[SunnyThoughts]

Those poor people in Haiti. They just can't seem to catch a break from mother nature. One thing after another. Sure do hate to see this storm just add salt to the wound. Wish there was something we could do other than just wish it away from them.

[jinftl]

Sadly there have been unnamed systems, tropical depressions, and tropical storms that have sat and dumped rain on haiti and done billions in damages and killed thousands....we can only pray for the best and hope the season will end as benign as it has been to this point for this region of the world that is suffering enough.

where are all the people who said the season was gonna be dead. but one thing irks me. Why dont they find somewhere for the people in haiti to go live. the US has all this money and people are living in tents. As powerful as this storm is probably going to be many of those people likely wont survive if they take a direct hit. even a brush from a 3 or 4 wouild kill those people. WTF is wrong with the world.

[cyclonic chronic]

eyewall on radar tightening up with every frame. this could bomb today. what a year. deffinately the best since 05, and thankfully not the huge loss of life(hopefully). a great year for research also with the PREDICT missions.

[pricetag56]

A CAT 4 would mean certain death for all those people. why wont anyone do something about this.

[wxman57]

Looks a little ragged on satellite, though. Outflow boundaries from about 260 deg all the way to 020 deg.

[jinftl]

Understand your frustration but please steer clear of politics on this board....

A CAT 4 would mean certain death for all those people. why wont anyone do something about this.

[pricetag56]

How much storm surge is expected from this.

[jinftl]

For the islands under a hurricane warning right now:

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


Way to soon to know what the impacts will be down the road for the greater antilees.

How much storm surge is expected from this.

[cyclonic chronic]

How much storm surge is expected from this.

depends on how big and how strong it gets.

[pricetag56]

For the islands under a hurricane warning right now:

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


Way to soon to know what the impacts will be down the road for the greater antilees.

How much storm surge is expected from this.

What about when if this were to hit haiti as a cat 4.

[cycloneye]

This is the last VDM by this mission that had big problems with the communication equipment.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 16:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 26
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 16:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°09'N 60°46'W (13.15N 60.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 34 miles (54 km) to the E (96°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,025m (9,925ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 58kts (From the N at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the WNW (295°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED BANDING
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the north quadrant at 14:16:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR STRONG BAND SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE RAGGED APPEARANCE OVERALL
LAST REPORT

[Aquawind]

[cyclonic chronic]

kinda reminds me of when dean or felix(i dont remember) became a hurricane right before the islands and intensified as it went from island to island.

[wxman57]

How much storm surge is expected from this.

What about when if this were to hit haiti as a cat 4.

The Caribbean islands are not very prone to storm surge. Storm surge is very much a function of coastal bathymetry, or the the depth of water just offshore. Since most of these islands are just peaks of tall underwater mountains, the water is very deep just offshore. And storm surge is not really a function of Saffir-Simpson category, it's a function of wind field size. A tiny area of Cat 4 or Cat 5 winds would make little difference in surge. It's all about the size of the wind field, not peak intensity.

That said, there are actually no SLOSH basins for the Caribbean with the exception of Puerto Rico. So we cannot run SLOSH to estimate storm surge. Given the very deep water just offshore most islands, the surge would be considerably less than you might expect, perhaps only 3-5 feet for a large Cat 4. But that's just a guess, as I have no way to calculate it manually using the Shore Protection Manual method without using nautical charts to take into account near-shore water depth for each small section of the coast.

[jinftl]

Link to some info on Haiti's tropical cyclone history....copious amounts of rain seem to do the most harm

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1413

For the islands under a hurricane warning right now:

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


Way to soon to know what the impacts will be down the road for the greater antilees.

How much storm surge is expected from this.

What about when if this were to hit haiti as a cat 4.