ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

NHC discussion says there will be a breakdown of steering currents around day 4...but they do mention a northward drift.

[plasticup]

Cat 3+ dawdling off the coast of Hispaniola? On top of their other problems, this is a nightmare scenario for Haiti.

[cycloneye]

With the 11 AM advisory,Hurricane Tomas will pass around 260 miles from San Juan at the closest point.Here is a neat link to know how far from your location it will pass with each advisory.

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

[SouthDadeFish]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

Some of us were following this system for almost a week but with no track consensus we rely on NHC to make a call and they did so far later than was possible, from what I understand. Sadly, it's only at the point they issue warnings that the the smaller islands are really alerted. Most people here were expecting rain, not much more. There really needs to be an open discussion that looks at how we can improve on this.

I don't want to sound like a huge NHC basher, as I think they do a great job, but they could have fixed this problem by not waiting on recon to confirm a system that seemed to have all the qualifications for a TD at least 12 hours before.

[wxman57]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

Some of us were following this system for almost a week but with no track consensus we rely on NHC to make a call and they did so far later than was possible, from what I understand. Sadly, it's only at the point they issue warnings that the the smaller islands are really alerted. Most people here were expecting rain, not much more. There really needs to be an open discussion that looks at how we can improve on this.

"Who makes the call?" would be a good topic for Talkin' Tropics. You can start a thread there and I'll chime in with my thoughts. Should be a good discussion. Let's focus on Tomas here.

I think that we may see a very big disaster down the road in Haiti and the DR, not that Tomas isn't hitting the islands hard already.

Got an email from the tstorms group this morning that said Tomas is the only TS/H to enter the Caribbean south of 16N so late in the season since 1724.

[plasticup]

Got an email from the tstorms group this morning that said Tomas is the only TS/H to enter the Caribbean south of 16N so late in the season since 1724.

It's unseasonable, that's for sure. The wave really snuck in low, especially for October.

[SouthDadeFish]

Visible imagery has gotten much more impressive over the last two hours. The eye has become much easier to see and deep convection almost completely surrounds it.

[tanguy97]

From Marine service in TRinidad
Hurricane TOMAS (AL21) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
St. Lucia
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Martinique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Barbados
probability for TS is 100% currently
Dominica
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Grenada
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Guadeloupe
probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Montserrat
probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Haiti
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
the Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Aruba
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

.

[amich]

Update in St. Vincent. Here on the south side of the island there has been some strong wind and rain. I have heard reports of roofs blowing off in the north and many trees falling and blocking roads. But there's also reports that several vendors are out in Kingstown selling fish and produce.

I also just heard a caller report from St. Lucia that part of the hospital roof has come off.

[brunota2003]

Recon is having Com problems for some reason, hope they get it fixed soon!

[northjaxpro]

Update in St. Vincent. Here on the south side of the island there has been some strong wind and rain. I have heard reports of roofs blowing off in the north and many trees falling and blocking roads. But there's also reports that several vendors are out in Kingstown selling fish and produce.

I also just heard a caller report from St. Lucia that part of the hospital roof has come off.

Thanks for the update. We appreciate you very much keeping all of us informed of the situation down there. However, more importantly, I hope you are very safe where you are as the cyclone passes through.

[cycloneye]

Recon is having Com problems for some reason, hope they get it fixed soon!

The mission is planned to go on until 2 PM so I hope they get it fixed.

[cycloneye]

Here is the incomplete decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 15:15Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 22L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 14:06Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°03'N 60°26'W (13.05N 60.4333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 56 miles (89 km) to the W (267°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,047m (9,997ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SE (124°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 244° at 45kts (From the WSW at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
L. Eye Character (Undecoded):
M. Eye Shape / Orientation / Diameter (Undecoded):
Remarks Section:
MAX FL LVL WIND OUT BOUND 67 KT N QUAD 1416Z
MISSING DATA I THRU O BECAUSE OF COM PROBLEMS

[Aquawind]

"Who makes the call?" would be a good topic for Talkin' Tropics.

Jump on it somebody..Seems like something has changed recently on this issue.

It could be the NHC is expecting a stronger storm than the models and thus it will take longer to feel the full effects of the trough for a more gradual or later turn.

[fci]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

OT, but I remember in the past that we almost always had transitions from wave to TD to TS to Hurricane and rarely had a system go from wave to named immediate and um-named to Hurricane in a day. Seems the naming if a TD just is being skipped and the trigger is being delayed a lot lately. I'll refrain from going down the path of the consequences of this and save it for it's own thread and not highjack us from Tomas

[plasticup]

I also just heard a caller report from St. Lucia that part of the hospital roof has come off.

Uh oh. The main of the storm hasn't even reached you guys let. Stay safe!

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Angry looking storm. Stay safe islanders!

[Aquawind]

[brunota2003]

People say (in hindsight) that the NHC should of pulled the trigger at least 12 to 18 hours before they did...here is my question, what would of happened if the NHC did that, and then Recon had gone out there and found no surface circulation? What if what you were seeing on sat images was a vigorous midlevel circulation, and at the surface it was just a sharp trough?Then people start whining about them pulling the trigger too early, or trying to jack up the score for their gains, etc

It is a very slippery slope either way, and everyone wants to jump on them in one way or another.

[Sanibel]

I would imagine any stall would allow some kind of land contact and weakening of the system before being caught under a ridge and taken more towards Florida, right? Climatology would probably favor a recurve under a trough and out to sea east of Florida. But this is a buggy year as far as climatology. NHC track has already tilted upward since yesterday.