ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Vortex]

RI may be about 12-24 hours away yet...Once we get a well developed CDO look out....

[RL3AO]

Once it gets its core set up, rapid intensification is very possible.

[fci]

It's interesting to see how the NHC's cone changed (internally) throughout the day. If I am correct, this is what they were thinking at 12z (represented by OFCL):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late2.png

At 18z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

And both of those are very different in the end from the current track forecast.

I'm afraid both of those links are showing the following:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/4061/noaccess.png

They do that to prevent "hot-linking" but you can trick it. Simply open it, select the URL at the top of the browser, and hit enter.

Wow, great hint to open the link!
Thank you!!

[RL3AO]

Wonder if we'll get some hurricane watches at 11, just to be on the safe side.

[fci]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

And they say this is only a tropical storm?

Not for long!

[HURAKAN]

55 knots

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

[RL3AO]

Wonder if we'll get some hurricane watches at 11, just to be on the safe side.

Close enough...

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

5 day track

Well that just looks like trouble.

Who would have thought the storm of the season would come in early November.

[amich]

I live in St. Vincent, but there is not much news about Tomas here. Can you tell me where to verify this is a hurricane now?? Thanks!

[RL3AO]

I live in St. Vincent, but there is not much news about Tomas here. Can you tell me where to verify this is a hurricane now?? Thanks!

Its not a hurricane now but probably will be within 12 to 24 hours.

I'm surprised there isn't much news considering you'll probably be seeing hurricane force winds tomorrow afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

I live in St. Vincent, but there is not much news about Tomas here. Can you tell me where to verify this is a hurricane now?? Thanks!

It has winds up to 65 mph but could be a hurricane tomorrow by the time it reaches your area.

[amich]

Thanks! I'll keep checking the news sites.

[Vortex]

That track is prime real estate for a cat 3/4....

[wxman57]

I don't buy that compromise track between models that don't even develop it. I think it's going right of the NHC track, probably toward Haiti/DR.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks! I'll keep checking the news sites.

Stay safe and keep us informed!

[RL3AO]

Thanks! I'll keep checking the news sites.

I'd suggest you prepare for a category 2 hurricane impacting you in about 15 hours. It likely will be a category 1, but Tomas could intensify quickly overnight.

[cycloneye]

The distance from where I am (San Juan PR) from the closest point has shrinked with each advisory.It was 302 at 5 PM,down to 297 at 8 PM and at 11 PM at 279 miles.

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

[Vortex]

I don't buy that compromise track between models that don't even develop it. I think it's going right of the NHC track, probably toward Haiti/DR.

I was a bit surprised they continued as far west...It appears they like the ECM/UKMET/GFDL solution at this point...

[wxman57]

I don't buy that compromise track between models that don't even develop it. I think it's going right of the NHC track, probably toward Haiti/DR.

I was a bit surprised they continued as far west...It appears they like the ECM/UKMET/GFDL solution at this point...

I just don't trust any model that doesn't even develop it beyond a TD or have it as a TS to start with.