ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Tropicswatcher]

Latest Vortex Message puts the center further north and east of the 5pm advisory. Northwest of the previous one. Winds estimated at 60 MPH over the surface.

[SouthDadeFish]

Found this interesting:

BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS

Seems that a turn would begin right after the day 5 point.

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Latest Vortex Message puts the center further north and east of the 5pm advisory. Northwest of the previous one. Winds estimated at 60 MPH over the surface.

That doesn’t bode well for Barbados at all.

The preceding reply is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[petit_bois]

Latest Vortex Message puts the center further north and east of the 5pm advisory. Northwest of the previous one. Winds estimated at 60 MPH over the surface.

That doesn’t bode well for Barbados at all.

The preceding reply is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well... it's now forcast to be dangerous in the near future...

The preceding reply is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

This kinda looks similar to the 1932 hurricane, or to Hazel in 1954, at least in initial track.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well I got the 5pm right. Most knew or couldn't believe it wasn't named yet. As for track? I'd say the Carribean better keep 2 eyes on Tomas. If it effects Florida. I think it would be a sheared mess.

[RL3AO]

This think looks incredible. The buzzsaw look in all quadrants. Major threat for RI, in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

Decoded second VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 20:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 20:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°15'N 56°57'W (11.25N 56.95W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 220 miles (355 km) to the SE (125°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 54kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 299m (981ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 302m (991ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:07:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INNER BAND DISSIPATED
SURFACE CENTER JUST TO SOUTHWEST
LOT OF SFC WND STREAKING NEAR NE ENTRY PT

[srainhoutx]

[Dean4Storms]

Wow! Impressive looking storm and with the track and synoptics it stands a good chance of RI IMHO!

[Evil Jeremy]

looks like a Gom"er

Nothing suggests this getting into the Gulf.

not yet... we will know a whole lot more next week.
We do know the NHC is forcating that general direction at this point.

Where do you get this from? The 5 day point is south of Jamacia, and the NHC is largely implying a re curve starting in around 6 or so days. Nothing they have said suggests anything near the Gulf. Things can change, but the NHC is certainly not forecasting that general direction.

[RL3AO]

Not to being up the "e" word, but it looks like something is trying to form there.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes it does look very impressive as well as scary. An imprressive storm for this time of year!!

[cycloneye]

Not to being up the "e" word, but it looks like something is trying to form there.

What do you mean? Tell more for the newbies that are here.

[SouthDadeFish]

By my calculations, if Tomas perfectly follows in the NHC intensity forecast, in five days he should generate 12.78 units of ACE, placing us well into the hyperactive range.

[FireRat]

The beast has been born. We may never look at November the same way after this one folks. Halloween will be scary enough when looking at the models and tracking the developing monster.

BTW Channel 7's Phil Ferro has advised Floridians to keep a close eye on the storm 5 to 7 days out. We cannot let our guard down with such a spectacular system.

[somethingfunny]

Not to being up the "e" word, but it looks like something is trying to form there.

What do you mean? Tell more for the newbies that are here.

What begins with an E and can be seen at least ten times in the following sentence:

[CrazyC83]

Based on those Recon reports, I would put out a Special Advisory at 6 pm with an intensity of 50 kt.

[SouthDadeFish]

Based on those Recon reports, I would put out a Special Advisory at 6 pm with an intensity of 50 kt.

I'm guessing the 8pm advisory will list him at 45 or 50 mph.