ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[fci]

Tomas (at least officially at 5 PM); looks like the "classic hurricane" now; at least on the satellite pictures.

[Gustywind]

[Vortex]

what a beauty....

[Iune]

Predicted to become a 100-knot hurricane
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

[cycloneye]

[Macrocane]

The NHC is usually a little conservative with the first advisory but this time is different they're forecasting Tomas to be a major hurricane, let's prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[caneseddy]

Initial track has it as a major hurricane SE of Jamaica by Wednesday; I guess they are not going with the track into Haiti for now

[Ivanhater]

NHC prelim track in the model guidance takes the center to Haiti Wednesday afternoon.

Looks like they decided against that track for now.

[latitude_20]

I have a number of friends who live on the eastern Yucatan - is there a reasonable possibility of a landfall there, or is it a pretty sure bet that Tomas will turn back to the north?

[Sanibel]

Wow, this big burly monster came out of nowhere.



Late season action. More than expected earlier in the season!

[Battlebrick]

That is the best tropical storm I've ever seen.

[myst12]

What effect do you guys see this having on the St. Thomas area?

[Macrocane]

Tomas will surely bring 2010 season to the hyperactive terrain. I can't believe we're at the same levels of 1995 already.

[petit_bois]

looks like a Gom"er

[Ivanhater]

looks like a Gom"er

Nothing suggests this getting into the Gulf.

[petit_bois]

looks like a Gom"er

Nothing suggests this getting into the Gulf.

not yet... we will know a whole lot more next week.
We do know the NHC is forcating that general direction at this point.

[cycloneye]

Tomas will surely bring 2010 season to the hyperactive terrain. I can't believe we're at the same levels of 1995 already.

Not surely but a given as Atlantic is at 147 ACE units right now

[fci]

Seems like the discussion was that this would not get past Jamaica and would turn across Haiti/Dr or Eastern Cuba.
Has there been any conversation of Tomas getting as far as the NW Carib?

[HurricaneStriker]

Tomas seems extremely impressive.