ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml

-Latest warning from Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
By Katy Young <katy at sbms.co.tt>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 17:16:36 +0100

Date: Friday 29th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:10:02AM

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE INFORMATION BULLETIN 4

ACTIVE AND VIGOUROUS TROPICAL WAVE 650KM EAST OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO


At 5.00am today the area of low pressure associated with the very active Tropical Wave is now centered approximately 650km east of Trinidad and Tobago and has become better organized.

The wave is moving toward the west to west-northwest at 24 to 32 kmh and there is a 60% chance of intensifying into a Tropical Depression over the next 24 to 48 hours. Environmental conditions are favourable for further development.

The leading periphery of the wave should begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the late afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy showers can be expected along with isolated thundershowers capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. These downpours can yield moderate to severe street or flash flooding and strong bursts of gusts in excess of 50kmh.

As the wave continues to intensify and move closer to Trinidad and Tobago showery activity can yield 3 to 4 inches and possibly 5 to 6 inches from early Saturday into Sunday. Wind speeds with gusts in excess of 55kmh are likely.

All interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to regard the possibility of these severe weather conditions seriously and adopt measures which would safeguard lives and property and pay close attention to information being issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services.

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services is closely monitoring this weather situation and will issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm today or sooner if the situation warrants.

Will post with updates as and when they come through

Thanks
Katy

[cycloneye]

For all the Eastern Caribbean friends,go to the Caribbean thread at U.S & Caribbean weather forum and read this afternoon's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&p=2091504#p2091504

[wxman57]

NHC prelim track in the model guidance takes the center to Haiti Wednesday afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[northjaxpro]

Good afternoon! I just looked through all of the Recon data and NHC has renumbered 91L and we finally have the birth of Tomas. This is one impressive looking tropical cyclone which has all the makings of possibly becoming a major IMO in the Eastern Caribbean. What an amazing system! Unprecedented to see a CV storm forming this far south and east at the end of October. Tomas is really going to be a huge newsmaker unfortunately for many in the Caribbean in the coming days.

[mf_dolphin]

Well 91L has disappeared from our map so that's the final straw.

[Gustywind]

Becoming really impressive each hour passing! Banding forming and becoming more pronounced!
Let's hope that a we won't have to deal with a cat 1 cane before reaching the Lesser Antilles, that could be very problematic! Be aware and vigilant my carib friends!!!

[Crackbone]

Wow, I was in a work meeting, I come out and see this.

Tomas looks more formidable since this morning. Amazing system.

[cycloneye]

43kts at flight level / 37kts at SFMR

043 037

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml

- thunder storm
By "Greg & Liz" <cabana at vincysurf.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:31:55 -0400

We just had a brief thunder storm…thunder, lightning and heavy rain for about 5 minutes…

Finally broke down and decided I should turn on what passes here for a radio station…sounds like a used car salesman…he said ‘rain comin’ then a little later he gave the report but downplayed it to rain all weekend with wind, possibility of it developing into something more…he might be right, but I don’t see any sense in downplaying that it might become a tropical storm or a hurricane before it has passed us by…oh well, so much for the local reports, I’ll stick to the satellite photos and reports from National Weather, etc.

[HURAKAN]

NRL:

90L.INVEST
21L.TOMAS
20L.SHARY

[stormhunter7]

Navy named it Tomas! So its offical!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[HURAKAN]

impressive

[caneseddy]

NHC prelim track in the model guidance takes the center to Haiti Wednesday afternoon.

Just what they don't need

[cyclonic chronic]

195230 1150N 05548W 9782 00248 //// +190 //// 125027 028 062 045 01
195300 1152N 05548W 9763 00264 //// +190 //// 135028 030 062 046 01
195330 1154N 05548W 9773 00259 //// +190 //// 142028 029 061 046 01
195400 1155N 05548W 9762 00265 //// +191 //// 133027 028 056 052 01

uncontaminated 61 and 62kt SMFR, though the rain rates are very high for these obs.

[otowntiger]

almost looks like a hurricane now. I realize it's not and may not even be close to it, but the sattelite imagery sure looks better than a LOT of tropical storms and even some hurricanes I've seen over the years.

[HURAKAN]

200800 1205N 05609W 9761 00268 //// +190 //// 099053 055 052 024 01

55 knots FL, 52 knots SFMR

[Ivanhater]

Tomas is clearly strengthening as Recon is in the system.

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... ados.shtml
- TS Thomas
By Donna Tull-Cox <dondonqt at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:34:59 -0400

Just heard on the radio that we now have TS Thomas bearing down on
Barbados. Outside has gotten very overcast and there have been a few
gusty squalls. There should be an advisory around 5 PM.
Donna

[abajan]

almost looks like a hurricane now. I realize it's not and may not even be close to it, but the sattelite imagery sure looks better than a LOT of tropical storms and even some hurricanes I've seen over the years.

Apparently satellite imagery can be quite deceptive. Compare how this supposedly minimal TS looks to Shary which presently has MSW of 60 mph.