ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[KatDaddy]

Amazing its taking this long for TPC to designate Invest 91L as a TS! There is no doubt this is a TS and a large one at that approaching the Islands. I am expecting a Joe B rant later today or tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested here is the translation of the latest weather forecast of METEO-FRANCE GUADELOUPE.

Regional service of Guadeloupe METEO-FRANCE GUADELOUPE
YELLOW LEVEL for " ROUGH SEA, DANGEROUS, RAIN AND STRONG WIND "

Current situation and observations
A tropical wave circulates to the southeast of the Lesser Antilles, to approximately 500 km east of the Grenadines. Its movement towards the west-northwest as well as its likely evolution in tropical storm, should bring one sensitive deterioration of the weather conditions on our region.

Forecasts
From on Saturday afternoon, the sea should rack itself and waves of 2.5m in 3.0 meters will break out in a swell of east-south-east direction. Quite coast exposed to the south will be affected and more particularly the banks of Pointe des Chateaux to Saint François, Saint Anne and Gosier as well as the south coast of la Désirade, Marie-Galante and les Saintes.
In the evening of Saturday and during the next night, rains and thunderstorms accumulations of the order of 50 mm in 3 hours will become more frequent and are expected.
The east winds in east-south-east should also accelerate during the same period to reach sustained winds at 30 to 35 knots (50km/h to 65km/h) and gusts at 50 to 65 knots (90 km/h to 120 km/h) in particular under the thunderstorms.

Comments/Consequences
Considering the likely evolution of this pertubation in tropical storm and of a possible variation of its trajectory, we recommend you to remain attentive to our weather forecasts.

Summarized
The risk of emergence of the phenomenon is moderate
The expected impact is moderate

Validity - duration of the phenomenon
From October 30th, 2010 till 12:00 am on October 31st, 2010 6:00 pm
Next bulletin: on Friday, October 29th, 2010 at about 5:00 pm

INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC MEASURES " PHENOMENA METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA " ORSEC " BE CAREFUL " YELLOW ATTENTIVENESS " RAIN SEA and WIND "
PREFECTURE OF GUADELOUPE
Inquire of the meteorological situation and be particularly careful:
- > if you have to practise sports at outdoor risk.
- > if your outdoor activities are situated in an exposed zone, on ground, in particular near summits in mountain, near cliffs, near streams, near beaches and offshore naturally.
- > if you have to circulate in flood-risk areas crossing of fords or low passages taken.
- > in case of thunderstorm: avoid the use of telephones and electric devices. Do not shelter in a woody zone, right by pylons or posts.
Collective measures could be possibly recommended later by the Prefect.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ivanhater]

Just a reminder about our policy at S2K.

It is OK to criticize the NHC when it comes to when naming a system, if it is warranted. However, keep the criticism respectful and professional. No one has crossed the line yet, but keep this reminder in the back of your mind.

[Gustywind]

[Cyclone1]

If you'd told me this was a hurricane, at first glance, I wouldn't argue.

[bvigal]

Thanks for translation, Gusty. MFrance is very good with storms and marine forecasting, I'm always interested to "hear" what they have to say. Have you heard anything on when they might have the Guadeloupe radar beam back online?

Not to sound like a broken record, but this thing is HUGE.

[HURAKAN]

Special advisory should be coming soon

[Shuriken]

[Evil Jeremy]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they have been working on an advisory for the past hour or so and have it ready to be put out as a special.

[Ivanhater]

This looks to be named shortly. Is this the farthest south and east a system has been named this late?

[wxman57]

18Z model guidance should be out shortly. I would wager it would carry the header Tropical Cyclone Tomas. Recon is definitely finding TS winds and it hasn't sampled the NE quadrant yet.

[latitude_20]

South winds measured at 41mph.

[HURAKAN]

1002.9 mb and dropping

[Cyclone1]

This looks to be named shortly. Is this the farthest east a system has been named this late?

Well, you have storms like Delta that formed considerably further east than this in late November, but as far as the deep tropics go, potentially. Seems unlikely that it's the furthest east, but it's no doubt an unusual location.

[HURAKAN]

This looks to be named shortly. Is this the farthest south and east a system has been named this late?

they're uncommon but they form once in a while

[Ivanhater]

This looks to be named shortly. Is this the farthest east a system has been named this late?

Well, you have storms like Delta that formed considerably further east than this in late November, but as far as the deep tropics go, potentially. Seems unlikely that it's the furthest east, but it's no doubt an unusual location.

Yeah, I meant deep tropics. I believe Joan carries the title thus far. I wonder if this would be considered a Cape Verde system if named prior to entering the Caribbean.

[Cyclone1]

This looks to be named shortly. Is this the farthest east a system has been named this late?

Well, you have storms like Delta that formed considerably further east than this in late November, but as far as the deep tropics go, potentially. Seems unlikely that it's the furthest east, but it's no doubt an unusual location.

Yeah, I meant deep tropics. I believe Joan carries the title thus far. I wonder if this would be considered a Cape Verde system if named prior to entering the Caribbean.

Nah, those are reserved for 50-40W and eastward, usually. This was never near Cape Verde.

[cycloneye]

This wave emerged West Africa as it was said a few days ago at the TWD's.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting, thanks!. I am amazed at the structure and size of this system. Looks like we have our "Caribbean Cruiser" this season. Who knew it would come around November!