ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

should be code red at 2 am

[cycloneye]

Gaining more latitude it appears by seeing those images.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks more sinister as time goes on...

[FireBird]

Gotta admit, I've been so busy, this one snook up on me. Good thing I've kept my 6am routine of checking tropical weather update. There's still time for some jogging, but with such a broad system, I don't know that it'll make a significant difference.

[Fego]

With a Halloween weekend this system bears watching closely. Waiting for the next models run.

[AJC3]

Ascending ACSAT pass from a few hours ago.

[Florida1118]

Their typing....TWO should come out soon...

[FireRat]

Just when you think the season's going down the drain, WOW!!!

Shary is just scary, but this next one, Tomas......God, if he forms the Caribbean has to be on the Lookout as NOVEMBER gets underway. The 1932 Cuba hurricane comes to mind when seeing the location where it's developing, and all the time it will have to gain tremendous strength if conditions allow. jeez what a nice spiral! Code red might be an understatement, at this rate we'll have Tomas tomorrow. Monster?

[floridasun78]

this look like a td i wont supprise that plane find ts with 91l and i wont supprise we watch post leedwards by 11am or 5pm friday this look system that getting stronger per hour

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N48W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 8N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N53W MOVING
WNW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD CYCLONIC PERTURBATION
WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS GIVING THE AREA GOOD OUTFLOW. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVER THE AREA WITHIN 240
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-13N AND WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 8N-13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 4N-16N BETWEEN 45W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[FireRat]

60%....eh the bare minimum.


That thing looks LIKE A DEVELOPING TYPHOON

[Florida1118]

[Sanibel]

Look at that thing flare and curl up!

[Garciaking32]

Hi everyone. I have been tracking this storm for a few days and it has really been picking up strength. I am concerned with this particular storm because my Mother has gone on a cruise and is currently in that area. She is on a cruise that is touring through Barbados, St.Martaan, St. Lucia and a few others islands. My concern is that she may not be able to get outta there fast enough. Does anyone know what these cruiselines do in situations like this? She is due to be home on Sunday I'm just hoping she maybe able to get out of there before it hits. Thanks in advance.

[natmicstef]

Hi everyone. I have been tracking this storm for a few days and it has really been picking up strength. I am concerned with this particular storm because my Mother has gone on a cruise and is currently in that area. She is on a cruise that is touring through Barbados, St.Martaan, St. Lucia and a few others islands. My concern is that she may not be able to get outta there fast enough. Does anyone know what these cruiselines do in situations like this? She is due to be home on Sunday I'm just hoping she maybe able to get out of there before it hits. Thanks in advance.

The cruise lines change their ports of calls well in advance of weather systems so I would not worry; they will divert in time.

[weatherwindow]

certainly understand your concern but not to worry...cruise lines have been dealing with these situations for many years. altho i would first check with the respective line for the particulars, the normal response is the modify the itinerary...you remember those ship avoidance grafix at the nhc site, the line is well aware of the margins of error and the system track. the very last thing that the cruise line will do is to endanger their passengers and equipment. they will be sure to take very good care of your mom and have her out of harms way well beforehand.

[Garciaking32]

Thank you all for your responses I am definitely calling my Mothers travel agent and finding out which cruiseline she is on and seeing what precautions they are taking. This storm certainly looks like a hurricane from satellite. Is the NHS still downplaying this storm or are they saying differently at this point?

[rog]

91L is really coming together will most likely be classified as TD this morning and Tomas later this afternoon.








This is not an official forecast, it is strictly my unprofessional opinion.

[rog]

I was just looking at the latest WV loops and this thing looks far better than Shary. I'm thinking right now that they may just bypass the TD designation and finally give us Tomas. When you look at Shary and 91L in WV loop it is almost embarassing it hasn't been named yet.