![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif)
ATL : TOMAS - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
12z GFS develops in Central Caribbean and later moves towards Hispanola.Graphic uploaded with imageshack.
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif)
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif)
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
12z CMC tracks thru Lesser Antilles as a Tropical Storm,then later thru Hispanola.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
![Image](http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/4117/slp10.png)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
![Image](http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/4117/slp10.png)
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
![up arrow :uarrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrowu.gif)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
HWRF has been consistent since the first run on 91L by having a cat 2 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.This is the 10/28/10 12z run. On the contrary,GFDL has not shown anything.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
![Image](http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/1769/slp21.png)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
![Image](http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/1769/slp21.png)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
There is no text yet of the 18z run by the bams,but here is the graphic with the tracks.SHIP goes up to 104 mph.
![Image](http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9418/at201091model.gif)
![Image](http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9418/at201091model.gif)
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- northjaxpro
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Interesting that the GFDL, which has been my choice most of this season as the best performing model, has not picked up on 91L as of yet.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
Here is the 18z text of the Bams.
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC THU OCT 28 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101028 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101028 1800 101029 0600 101029 1800 101030 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.7N 50.4W 8.4N 54.2W 9.4N 58.0W 10.2N 61.3W
BAMD 7.7N 50.4W 8.2N 53.2W 8.8N 56.0W 9.5N 58.5W
BAMM 7.7N 50.4W 8.3N 53.4W 9.0N 56.5W 9.8N 59.2W
LBAR 7.7N 50.4W 8.7N 53.4W 9.8N 56.3W 11.1N 59.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101030 1800 101031 1800 101101 1800 101102 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 63.8W 11.2N 68.2W 11.8N 71.9W 12.1N 74.4W
BAMD 10.1N 60.8W 11.5N 65.3W 13.3N 69.7W 14.6N 73.2W
BAMM 10.4N 61.4W 11.5N 65.6W 12.7N 69.6W 13.5N 72.9W
LBAR 12.0N 61.3W 15.7N 64.9W 17.9N 65.1W 17.8N 62.7W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 95KTS
DSHP 50KTS 70KTS 81KTS 91KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.7N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 6.8N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 6.0N LONM24 = 43.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Fego
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
As soon as the GFDL gets on board, then I will be in alert mode. Anyway, we are saying good bye to October and the Atlantic looks like September. No doubt it has been a very active hurricane season.
!Go Giants!
!Go Giants!
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Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
Most models are developing this system, so will be interesting to see if it can get going, track looks very uncertain still, a track towards the WNW/nW looks likely which will take it into E/C Caribbean where development is possible but where it ends up threating is very uncertain yet...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
Local Mets here in South Fla mentioned this system. Told us to keep an eye on it.
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12Z ECM ensembles keep it south of jamaica...At H240 strong ridging to the north as well...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
18Z GFS heads N over haiti then gets trapped underneath the ridge just NE of the bahamas and heads back wsw....very interesting.....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- bvigal
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ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion
News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.
035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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- expat2carib
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion
bvigal wrote:News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.
035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?
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- bvigal
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion
expat2carib wrote:bvigal wrote:News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.
035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?
The reason the post is confusing, is because I DIDN'T POST IT HERE, someone moved it. It was a sarcastic addendum to a post I made in the 91 discussion.
To whomever moved it: I'm well aware there is a models thread. If I wanted it here, I would have posted it here. See the results? It's out of context.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
bvigal wrote:expat2carib wrote:bvigal wrote:
I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?
The reason the post is confusing, is because I DIDN'T POST IT HERE, someone moved it. It was a sarcastic addendum to a post I made in the 91 discussion.
To whomever moved it: I'm well aware there is a models thread. If I wanted it here, I would have posted it here. See the results? It's out of context.
Eh. I'm sure they had some reason to move it.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
18z HWRF continues to show a powerful hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Models
00z Tropical Models
A change in direction from west at 280 to wnw at 285 degrees at 00z.
A change in direction from west at 280 to wnw at 285 degrees at 00z.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 290109
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101029 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101029 0000 101029 1200 101030 0000 101030 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 52.1W 9.0N 55.7W 10.1N 58.9W 11.0N 61.7W
BAMD 8.0N 52.1W 8.6N 54.8W 9.3N 57.4W 9.8N 59.7W
BAMM 8.0N 52.1W 8.6N 55.0W 9.3N 57.6W 9.8N 59.9W
LBAR 8.0N 52.1W 9.3N 55.2W 10.7N 58.1W 11.6N 60.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101031 0000 101101 0000 101102 0000 101103 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 64.2W 12.7N 68.8W 13.6N 72.5W 14.4N 74.5W
BAMD 10.3N 62.0W 11.8N 66.9W 13.5N 71.2W 15.0N 73.7W
BAMM 10.3N 62.1W 11.6N 66.5W 13.1N 70.4W 14.6N 72.8W
LBAR 13.3N 62.4W 15.8N 65.9W 17.2N 65.7W 17.2N 63.2W
SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 94KTS 99KTS
DSHP 63KTS 70KTS 81KTS 86KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 52.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 7.2N LONM12 = 48.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 6.4N LONM24 = 44.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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