ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

#741 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:58 am

Latest forecast cone has it right on the coast of Honduras. That will slow down any strengthening.

#742 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:09 am

Will this be the one that breaks 150 ACE units? Stay tuned!

#743 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:13 am

This close-up loop shows an overshooting top, possibly a hot tower, firing right over/just north of the center:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

#744 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:15 am

brunota2003 wrote:Will this be the one that breaks 150 ACE units? Stay tuned!

With the 11 AM update at 55kts,the Atlantic is at 143.3475 (See ACE Thread at Talking Tropics) Richard will have to intensify a bit more than forecast, to then the Atlantic reach the hyperactive line of 150 ACE units,as it has little time before it makes landfall in Belize.

#745 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:17 am

A slower track, and a farther north one, will really help ACE.

Sanibel · #746 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:18 am

Eye reflection in IR (possible RI):

#747 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:21 am

That hollow spot does not match the center coordinates :uarrow:

#748 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:22 am

Although looking at satellite images I would guess the center would be right around that location, as banding would seem to spiral around that area.

#749 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:22 am

I don't think Richard will be the last storm we see this year. 1 or 2 more are still likely.

Latest

#750 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:23 am

Visible image at 14:45z shows the tower.Image uploaded to preserve it.

#751 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:24 am

no indication of eye forming on visible

Typhoon_Willie · #752 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:45 am

But it does look better today...

#753 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:48 am

Typhoon_Willie wrote:But it does look better today...

100% better ... should be a hurricane if it doesn't move over NE Honduras

#754 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:55 am

no indication yet of an eyewall forming

#755 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:24 am

CourierPR wrote:Ex, take a closer look at the blue part you highlighted. It says he could be near hurricane strength by Sunday.

It could be near, but not reach it...

70 mph = strong TS
75 mph = Cat.1 Hurricane

That's what I meant, however, currently it looks pretty different.

#756 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:26 am

Cloud tops really warming now....

#757 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:31 am

Image at 16:15z

Steve H. · #758 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:52 am

Looks much betterer today, Cane today. If we get RI maybe it will avoid land and stay north of the Honduran coast.

#759 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:54 am

Certainly looks better, I think this will soon become a hurricane. I don't know about RI though it sure has been taking it's sweet time since early to midweek...thought it would be one by now :lol:

#760 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:18 pm

Spiral banding looks excellent, just missing a healthy CDO. Would help if he could mix out the dry air to the NW a little more.

ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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