ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

Deep convection becoming more concentrated and symetrical per 1515Z Vis...If the center tightens right underneath the deepest convection more robust strengthening would be expected this afternoon...still appears basically stationary to a very slow movement(275ish)

[jinftl]

I still believe that at least the remnants (or a very weakened version) of Richard may eventually make a run at turning northeast down the road...maybe more of a mitch track than a wilma track (with no comparison to either of those storms in terms of intensity).

From Dr. Jeff Masters blog this morning:

If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, steady weakening is to be expected.

[SouthDadeFish]

Just like the NHC, I don't think he's becoming better organized at all. The center is elongated and is on the southern edge of the deep convection. Hints of the center reforming even farther south. To be honest, this could slam into Honduras. Totally unexpected to me.

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC gives Richard only a 3% chance of becoming a major...

[Vortex]

shear continues to decrease and the dry air to the NW is beginning to mix out.....From this point on Richard should steadily intensify....Cat 2-3 seems reasonable at this point...Once Richard begins to move(above 5 mph) we'll have a much better idea on any potential landfalls down the line...

[SouthDadeFish]

I see no surface obs supporting a strengthening system. Buoy 42057 has a rising pressure and recon found the same.

[wxman57]

NHC gives Richard only a 3% chance of becoming a major...

I think that calculation is on the low side. You'd have to understand how they actually calculate the percentage. They take a large number of model runs (perhaps 1000), each with a different possible track, and then count the number of times the models forecast a Cat 3 hurricane. So the models aren't necessarily assuming that Richard will be over water for nearly 72 hrs.

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC gives Richard only a 3% chance of becoming a major...

I think that calculation is on the low side. You'd have to understand how they actually calculate the percentage. They take a large number of model runs (perhaps 1000), each with a different possible track, and then count the number of times the models forecast a Cat 3 hurricane. So the models aren't necessarily assuming that Richard will be over water for nearly 72 hrs.

Oh I did not know that. I personally believe the chances are around 15%. I would say 30%, but he doesn't appear to be organizing in a hurry.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Important to remember a small pocket of increasing 5 Knot shear has been impacting Richard today. I wrote about this last night but basically what I observed implied Richard would strength marginally, and he seems to have done so. Overnight tonight Richard will move away from that area and I think he will rapidly intensify, as wxman57 suggested. Perhaps between the hours of 7-11 P.M. Richard will begin this phase.

[SouthDadeFish]

Hot tower in the middle of the CDO? certainly looks that way, from recent visible images.

[GCANE]

Hot tower in the middle of the CDO? certainly looks that way, from recent visible images.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

Sure does. It's been firing high rain-rate just about all morning.

[Vortex]

organizing pretty quickly now...outlow in all quads especially the w and nw has improved markedly....fascinating to watch this evolve and all the inner workings at play...I think well have a Hurricane by saturday morning....

[SouthDadeFish]

If I would look at the satellite imagery without knowing the recon data, I would guess Richard is a 60 mph tropical storm on its way to becoming a hurricane.

[Vortex]

there will probablly be a very tight core/wind field initially...I suspect next recon will find a vastly improved system on all fronts...

[SouthDadeFish]

Just when I was sold on the idea of Richard being an underachiever, he seems to be getting his act together. He's dropping the tail to the south, and instead developing banding features. CDO looks very circular for the first time in his life, with hot towers in the middle.

[Shuriken]

I think it will very likely be a hurricane within 36 hrs. It's organizing quickly now. Could reach 100-110 kts before landfall. Still has almost 3 days over water with low wind shear.

I think Rick will reach H even faster than that; that hot tower has been in state of continuous full-blast flare for twelve hours now, and banding is beginning to develop now. IMO rapid-intensification is underway (with all of it being organizational at this point, thus the lack of pressure falls until a good mid-level vortex is established.

Wilma and Mitch are almost perfect analogs here: slow-moving, late October hurricanes within 100m of Richard's current position.



8 16.30 -79.70 10/17/12Z 40 999 TROPICAL STORM
9 16.00 -79.80 10/17/18Z 45 997 TROPICAL STORM
10 15.80 -79.90 10/18/00Z 55 988 TROPICAL STORM
11 15.70 -79.90 10/18/06Z 60 982 TROPICAL STORM
12 16.20 -80.30 10/18/12Z 65 979 HURRICANE-1
13 16.60 -81.10 10/18/18Z 75 975 HURRICANE-1
14 16.60 -81.80 10/19/00Z 130 946 HURRICANE-4
15 17.00 -82.20 10/19/06Z 150 892 HURRICANE-5
16 17.30 -82.80 10/19/12Z 160 882 HURRICANE-5

Wilma lollygagged weak until developing a pinhole eye -- then EI'd straight to cat-5 in a heartbeat.

Interesting southward change in the NHC track, now showing Richard really crossing the YP and diminishing to a depression in the southern Gulf. I guess the high really is going to be strong enough to steer it pretty much westnorthwestward

The center would likely survive a WNW jaunt across the Yucatan; a recurve NE track after that is your classic Hurricane Opel.

[cycloneye]

It looks very good on visible image,but, what is inside is the important thing as recon showed nothing impressive.Lets see if this evenings mission gets more strong winds in the data.

[Vortex]

It looks very good on visible image,but, what is inside is the important thing as recon showed nothing impressive.Lets see if this evenings mission gets more strong winds in the data.

Luis,
I suspect this evenings mission will interesting to say the least..I wouldn't be surprised if by then we're talking about a developing eye wall...

[GCANE]

That dry air to the west needs to moisten some and destabilize.

Might happen this afternoon if convection fires up over Honduras and moves debris moisture north.

If that happens then Richard should ramp up later tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html