ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

Cancel statement about better organized center: it's still rather broad. And, based on the recon data, it's located even farther south. I guess the poorly placed anticyclone is giving Richard fits.

[boca]

TX/LA watch Richard climotology means nothing this year.If it does manage to get to your area luckily it will be a sheared mess.

[cycloneye]

Well it looks like the 2010 Florida shield is holding strong were going dodge another one.

I think the strong La Nina has to be a big factor on why the shield in Florida.

Off Topic= I thought when I came this morning,I would find the thread active with comments and surpassing 50 pages,but I see a very slow thread. I guess that may have to do with the change in tune by the models.But that doesn't mean that suddenly,the forum stops.Come in peeps and continue the discussions about Richard,even if it does not going to your area.

[SouthDadeFish]

I woke up and looked at the satellite images and was impressed. Then I looked at recon data and was not. Still unorganized.

[boca]

This is an unusual pattern that we're in because from 1851 to present only 3 storms have not come close to Florida that gator posted a few days ago.

[wxman57]

With a moderate to strong cold front pushing off the TX/LA coasts on Thursday, Richard's not going there. The cooler, drier air should flow south into the BoC and into what's left of Richard after a long crossing of the Yucatan. That will likely be the end of the road for Richard. I don't think it will survive to turn NE toward the FL Panhandle now.

[tailgater]

TX/LA watch Richard climotology means nothing this year.If it does manage to get to your area luckily it will be a sheared mess.

A sheared mess into eastern Texas would be perfect, with all or most of the rain to the east, we are bone dry over here as is most of the northern gulf states.

[Hurricane]

Wxman, you know how you originally forecasted Richard NOT to hit Texas? What's your opinion now? Do you think it might have a chance?

[boca]

Tailgater I'm rooting for a sheared mess for you but wxman57 said if it gets stuck in the BOC with a strong front coming thru Richard won't survive.

[SouthDadeFish]

This would suggest Richard isn't terribly unorganized:

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm curious to see what movement recon finds with Richard (if any) between the two fixes. He's flirting with moving inland into Honduras.

[SouthDadeFish]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2010 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:58:53 N Lon : 80:22:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.9 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

From CIMSS ADT

[Recurve]

Interesting southward change in the NHC track, now showing Richard really crossing the YP and diminishing to a depression in the southern Gulf. I guess the high really is going to be strong enough to steer it pretty much westnorthwestward, and it does seem to take most or all of Florida out of the picture, especially if as Wxman says, Richard is going to be sheared/choked by a front with dry air coming in to the Gulf.

Would have liked some more cool air to make it to Florida, but it does seem lucky for the state at this time of the year to have a high and not a recurve scenario. Hoping for the people in Mexico that it doesn't linger too long and strengthen too much before getting there, and moves quickly once it does. They sure don't need a major or a major soaker that causes flooding.

Pressure starting to rise here in the Keys according to the Molasses reef buoy.

NWS Key West mentions the building high and possible moisture surge from Richard:

Code: Select all

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH...WILL CREATE COMFORTABLE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
OUR 04Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WE NOTE PARENTHETICALLY THAT
INDICATED PRESSURES ON THE PENINSULA ARE ABOUT A MILLIBAR HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE. WITH THE HIGH IN THIS POSITION
WE CAN EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST BREEZES AND DRY CONTINENTAL
CONDITIONS TODAY.

HOWEVER THE HIGH IS ON THE MOVE. ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THE PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE LOCAL SURFACE RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS OUR WINDS WILL HAUL INTO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LEADING TO INCREASING VALUES OF TOTAL COLUMN
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE NEW OCEANIC AIR MASS SOURCE
REGION.

NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS FORECAST BY THE CENTER TO DRIFT TOWARD MEXICO AND INTENSIFY THIS
WEEKEND. ON THIS BASIS WE CAN EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE OF MOISTURE
VALUES...AND RAIN CHANCES...IN A SOUTHERLY SURGE ALONG ABOUT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. NONETHELESS AT THIS STAGE WE ARE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
WHILE WE SEE HOW STABLE THIS TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE. TUNE IN AGAIN ON
SUNDAY IF YOU HAVE IMPORTANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR THE
COMING WEEK.


[wxman57]

Wxman, you know how you originally forecasted Richard NOT to hit Texas? What's your opinion now? Do you think it might have a chance?

Nope. Not with that cold front pushing out across the NW Gulf Thursday. We'll be back in fall weather next week.

[HURAKAN]

130330 1639N 08015W 9630 00424 0108 +220 +188 089037 038 034 009 00
130400 1637N 08017W 9630 00423 0108 +213 +188 086036 037 035 010 00
130430 1636N 08018W 9630 00423 0108 +213 +185 086036 037 037 013 00
130500 1635N 08020W 9628 00423 0108 +201 +182 086037 037 038 014 00
130530 1633N 08021W 9627 00422 0105 +213 +178 088037 038 037 012 00
130600 1632N 08022W 9631 00415 0103 +211 +174 088039 040 036 010 00

40 knots flight level, 38 knots SFMR

[wxman57]

Looks like it's a TS again. Not surprised, as outflow is considerably improved over yesterday. I still think it'll be a strong hurricane (Cat 2/3) before it reaches Belize. But I think it'll be a TD when it enters the BoC Wednesday. May not regenerate much there before it draws in cool/dry air from a cold front on Thursday.

[fci]

Seeming more and more like Richard will never see the GOM or the CONUS. I guess that isn't necessarily uncommon for this time of year.

[wxman57]

Climo is always fun to look at. I put in a circle 85 miles radius around Richard's current location and searched for all October/November storms since 1851 and got the map below. No storm has ever hit Texas from that location in either month. Interestingly enough, very few ever reached the BoC from there. And the last time a storm near Richard hit the FL Panhandle was 1916. With the cold front south of the FL Panhandle by Friday, Richard won't likely go there either.

[Blown Away]

Very few October hurricane tracks are slam dunk accurate. I expect a curveball from Richard before this is all over.

[dwsqos2]

Well, the gradient is still nice and flat; no shock given visible satellite and low-cloud motions.

I'm still in the no 'cane camp.

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