ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

So, does this move south pretty much take Fl out of the picture?

Way, way, way, way, way too early to tell.

[Ntxw]

That'll depend on the trough coming in.

[Ivanhater]

The ridge is expanding on the models. You said the ridge was only present on the surface which is clearly not the case. No, I don't see even a strong storm hooking NE into S.Florida with the ridge centered right over SoFlo.

Strong storms are steered more by the upper levels. Also, are you willing to take to the bank right now where the center of that high will be in 5 days? 6 days? 7 days?

I know that and both the GFS, Euro and other global models show a mid to upper level ridge centered right over SoFlo and expanding. Can things change? Sure. However, as it stands now (and trending stronger BTW) is for a stronger ridge centered over Southern Florida.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The ridge is expanding on the models. You said the ridge was only present on the surface which is clearly not the case. No, I don't see even a strong storm hooking NE into S.Florida with the ridge centered right over SoFlo.

Strong storms are steered more by the upper levels. Also, are you willing to take to the bank right now where the center of that high will be in 5 days? 6 days? 7 days?

I know that and both the GFS, Euro and other global models show a mid to upper level ridge centered right over SoFlo and expanding. Can things change? Sure. However, as it stands now (and trending stronger BTW) is for a stronger ridge centered over Southern Florida.

I see a strong westerly flow at the upper levels still at 100 hour plus on the 18z GFS

[Ivanhater]

Are we looking at the same model? I see a ridge centered over Southern Florida expanding over the Gulf...

[gatorcane]

Ivan he is talking about the 200 to 300mb flow which a strong Richard would be steered by, not the 500mb.

Check out the 00z nam just in. I sense another swing in the models tonight and I think the nhc is smart not shifting too far south with the track just yet

Still, a ways to go before we know where Richard ends up

[Ivanhater]

Ivan he is talking about the 200 to 300mb flow which a strong Richard would be steered by, not the 500mb.

Check out the 00z nam just in. I sense another swing in the models tonight and I think the nhc is smart not shifting too far south with the track just yet

Still, a ways to go before we know where Richard ends up

Not one model or ensemble member shows Southern Florida. Even the HWRF and GFDL that show a very strong Richard now show the ridge pushing him into the Yucatan and is very close to the model consensus and NHC right now.

If the argument is that the pattern portrayed by the models is wrong and will change, that's fine. However, that is not the case right now and has not been the trend.

[Ivanhater]

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection continues to grow near the center. Still looking for banding features though.

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

About to crank-up I would say.

[SouthDadeFish]

About to crank-up I would say.

What makes you say that? Just curious.

[boca]

I don't see much banding evident yet so I don't think its quite ready to crack up yet.

[Sanibel]

About to crank-up I would say.

What makes you say that? Just curious.

CDO behavior. Should strengthen over the next day.

[Ntxw]

Starting to breathe very well with outflow, fighting off dry air well too. Becoming it's own little entity vs the jumbled mess with the sheared stuff up north.

[SouthDadeFish]

The center still is on the SW side of the convection though. Getting there slowly but surely.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ivan he is talking about the 200 to 300mb flow which a strong Richard would be steered by, not the 500mb.

Check out the 00z nam just in. I sense another swing in the models tonight and I think the nhc is smart not shifting too far south with the track just yet

Still, a ways to go before we know where Richard ends up

Not one model or ensemble member shows Southern Florida. Even the HWRF and GFDL that show a very strong Richard now show the ridge pushing him into the Yucatan and is very close to the model consensus and NHC right now.

If the argument is that the pattern portrayed by the models is wrong and will change, that's fine. However, that is not the case right now and has not been the trend.

Great post. I think it is actually funny the climatology graphic gator posted actually helps make the argument that YES in a strong La Nina they can hit the NGOM in October. Hurricane Ike anyone?

As it stand now I would say the Central GOM may even be in play....maybe as far west as Central LA....

[Shuriken]

Anyone else getting that weird creepy feeling that the intensity forecast is waay undershot?

Richard is sitting right over the "Mitch factory", and crawling like a slug with landfall not projected in any direction until Sunday.

[dwsqos2]

Well, from what I can tell by glancing at shortwave, the surface circulation may be a bit better defined than yesterday. Though observations at buoy 42057 are still rather meager.

[boca]

Well it looks like the 2010 Florida shield is holding strong were going dodge another one.