ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[calmbeforestorm1]

Just remember that the fastest models take 66+ hours to get Richard to the Yucatan. That's 11 model runs and quite a few changes I suspect especially with a still weak system presently stalled in very weak steering currents.

[gatorcane]

Climatological tracks for October within 65NM of where this depression is located.

Look how many of them impacted Florida or just east of Florida in the Bahamas. It's really hard to believe that it heads west into the Yucatan, though three have in 150 years of recoreded history. Just about all of the others impacted Florida or the Bahamas.

Posting this again. Very few tracks in recorded history have taken a track into the yucatan and southern gom.

This would certainly be a very rare track should it do that. Still wondering whether it either ends up falling apart or ends up taking a more climatologically-favored track if it actually develops.

[Ivanhater]

It could be a Cat 5 and still likely hit the Yucatan. There will be a building ridge over S.Florida. HWRF and GFDL finally corrected themselves showing this ridge pushing Richard west into the Yucatan. No models show this ramming into the ridge anymore which should allow more confidence in the NHC cone.

Even with the map you posted Gator shows storms going into the Yucatan and/or Northern Gulf. Statistically speaking, it will happen again. The pattern this go round just happens to favor those solutions.

Also, you will find the historical map from wunderground concerning Richard shows more storms going toward the Yucatan and/or Northern Gulf...some of those being category 2 or 3.

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AS TROPICAL FEATURE
REMAINS IN THE NW CARIB WITH MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE WHILE
ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND WILL KEEP POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LATE IN
THE PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH FEATURES IN THE
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE PERSISTENCE GOING.

NWS Key West- THE INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD...IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

NWS Tallahassee- WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS FOR THE EXTENDED AS TROPICAL STORM (OR HURRICANE) RICHARD MEANDERS ABOUT. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.


NWS Melbourne- QUICK PEEK AT THE NEW 00Z ECMWF ALSO INDICATES RIDGE ALOFT BREAKING DOWN WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING EARLY/MID WEEK TO THE EAST OF LOW THAT
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM RICHARD BY THE NHC. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO ADD A LOW
MENTIONABLE POP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD (TUE-WED). WILL NEED FINE
TUNING AS SITUATION GETS BETTER IN FOCUS.

NWS Pensacola/Mobile-http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=mob&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (Dissussion too long)

NWS NO/Baton Rouge- MEANWHILE...T.D. 19 /AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LATER TODAY/ IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS SUGGEST REMNANT CIRCULATION ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
COULD BECOME INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL INTERACTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING IN REGARDS
TO FUTURE TRACK OF TD 19 /RICHARD?/ BEYOND 120 HOURS.

All NWS offices on the N GOM/Fl seem to mention it, which is interesting because some NWS offices don't mention Tropics all that much.

[Ntxw]

How many of those climo storms are actually in La Nina years? For all you know the cluster in the Yucatan could all be La Nina storms and few curving towards Florida. Im not saying it's true, just saying the numbers can be skewed.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO,after what has occured with the 18z models package,NHC will shift the track to the south at 11 PM.

[calmbeforestorm1]

It could be a Cat 5 and still likely hit the Yucatan. There will be a building ridge over S.Florida. HWRF and GFDL finally corrected themselves showing this ridge pushing Richard west into the Yucatan. No models show this ramming into the ridge anymore which should allow more confidence in the NHC cone.

Even with the map you posted Gator shows storms going into the Yucatan and/or Northern Gulf. Statistically speaking, it will happen again. The pattern this go round just happens to favor those solutions.

Also, you will find the historical map from wunderground concerning Richard shows more storms going toward the Yucatan and/or Northern Gulf...some of those being category 2 or 3.

The ridge is a surface feature and not present at the mid and upper levels throughout the forecast period.

[psyclone]

well, the climo map notwithstanding, a track to the yucatan seems most probable at this point... and the map proves such an event is not unprecedented. i think richard likely spends a good deal of time over the yucatan and is severly disrupted when it emerges if it is able to emerge at all. beyond that the gulf is not likely to be be hospitable to a storm, especially if it tries to make it to the northern gulf coast. the best chance for this to whack the conus at a respectable intensity is to shoot the channel and bend northeast toward southwest fl and that scenario seems an increasingly extreme longshot imo.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

No, the ridge is present in the mid and upper levels.

[TCmet]

The mission is over as plane is acending. Is the NHC call at 11 PM if they downgrade it to a TD or not after this mission that didn't found anything of TS force at flight level.

no way they downgrade this with TS watches out. just my opinion.

[Vortex]

00Z Nam rolling in and quite a bit further North than prior runs..not sure if the NAM has any digested recon data used earlier today

H48


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

sorry mods meant to place that in the models thread

[MWatkins]

I do expect the NHC track to come south at the 11pm, but not as much as the TVCN suggests. If the next forecast cycle looks like this one, then they come fully south and west at 5AM.

One thing to note, the HWRF and GFDL were not "slamming" a hurricane into the ridge. There was a weakness between 36 and 72 hours showing in the 12Z and previous guidance, but that break isn't there in the 18Z GFS guidance...hence the hurricane models stay south.

There's never been any question that the ridge over FL builds back in at 120 hours...the GFDL/HWRF were simply north of the ridge axis with Richard by then.

MW

[dwsqos2]

Hmm...Richard is rather poorly organized. I would have to imagine that perhaps the globals with a weaker depication of Richard and with rather far south tracks have some merit. I see no reason to change my forecast: no 'cane.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[calmbeforestorm1]

No, the ridge is present in the mid and upper levels.

Look at the light winds at 500 mb associated with that mid level pattern and tell me a strong storm wouldn't plow right through it. Then look at the upper level pattern and tel me where a strong storm would go. Al that changed with the 18z GFDL was the pattern in the Carribean which brought Richard further west. Nothing to do with the predicted ridge.

[Ivanhater]

The ridge is expanding on the models. You said the ridge was only present on the surface which is clearly not the case. No, I don't see even a strong storm hooking NE into S.Florida with the ridge centered right over SoFlo.

[cycloneye]

Track more south.

[cycloneye]

RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS
MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT
LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE
SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW
TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The ridge is expanding on the models. You said the ridge was only present on the surface which is clearly not the case. No, I don't see even a strong storm hooking NE into S.Florida with the ridge centered right over SoFlo.

Strong storms are steered more by the upper levels. Also, are you willing to take to the bank right now where the center of that high will be in 5 days? 6 days? 7 days?

[sunnyday]

So, does this move south pretty much take Fl out of the picture?