ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[sfwx]

Local WPB Met was pretty bold and said Richard will most likely get torn apart and what is left will come across Florida as an open wave next week.

Eric

[lonelymike]

Whats the water temps in the Gulf bout now? Also the shear forecast for next week? Thanks for anyone who replies.

[latitude_20]

Anyone else disagree with the latest advisory that calls Richard nearly stationary? Loops seem to show a westward movement. Am I seeing that correctly?

[Ntxw]

Anyone else disagree with the latest advisory that calls Richard nearly stationary? Loops seem to show a westward movement. Am I seeing that correctly?

I don't know for sure, but an explanation could be that the center isn't moving west yet (could be) but rather the convection is building more on the western side/pulled over to wrap around hence better organization.

[wxman57]

Anyone else disagree with the latest advisory that calls Richard nearly stationary? Loops seem to show a westward movement. Am I seeing that correctly?

You're not observing the low-level center, you're just noticing the shear is letting up and thunderstorms are building westward over the center. It's stationary.

Recon is finding that Richard is likely not a TS now.

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 23:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 23:25:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°00'N 80°27'W (16.N 80.45W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 237 miles (381 km) to the SSE (165°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 63° at 22kts (From the ENE at ~ 25.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 84 nautical miles (97 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 429m (1,407ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 431m (1,414ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.03 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 29kts (~ 33.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:36:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:36:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center

[boca]

Looks like this is at depression status if I'm reading the VDM correctly.

[caneman]

Could be just me but it's looking the GFS scenario of just plowing right into C.A. is a good possibility. The further South it goes down in the Yuc or into C.A. the less likely it survives, IMHO

[hurricaneCW]

Funny how in 12 hours, we go from a strong hurricane impacting florida to a weaker system slamming into CA, Yucatan and dying out. I said before that the if the storm drifts far enough to the se, that it could slam into CA when it turns to the west. Richard is looking very unhealthy right now, the shear is ripping him apart.

Who knows, this storm could just end up a no big deal and once again all that hype might lead to nothing.

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR found 42 knot winds. Only the flight level winds for that reading were flagged as contaminated.

[SouthDadeFish]

Funny how in 12 hours, we go from a strong hurricane impacting florida to a weaker system slamming into CA, Yucatan and dying out. I said before that the if the storm drifts far enough to the se, that it could slam into CA when it turns to the west. Richard is looking very unhealthy right now, the shear is ripping him apart.

Who knows, this storm could just end up a no big deal and once again all that hype might lead to nothing.

Shear is definitely not ripping Richard apart.... Shear has continued to drop and is between 5-10 knots over the center currently. Dry air is a problem, but it finally looks like the trough is lifting out and dry has been retreating NW. Tonight Richard should start to get his act together.

[warmer]

now it is moving north???

[Dean4Storms]

Even so, I believe the NHC keeps it a minimal TS with the convection seen growing on sat imagery. Could be that the shear/dry air just temporarily weakened it.

[cycloneye]

The saving grace for the U.S may be the movement to the SE for almost two days that it took (From 17.6N to now 16.0N) If it had stayed around the 17's,then it would do what HWRF and GFDL had in past runs before both shifted southward at 18z.

[calmbeforestorm1]

The saving grace for the U.S may be the movement to the SE for almost two days that it took (From 17.6N to now 16.0N) If it had stayed around the 17's,then it would do what HWRF and GFDL had in past runs before both shifted southward at 18z.

Could be so but steering currents are obviously weak and any deviation of path to the north of west could have big impications down the road.

[cycloneye]

Looks like this is at depression status if I'm reading the VDM correctly.

And also so far,no winds of TS force at flight level have been found.Lets see if they find those winds soon.

[boca]

In all honesty I think its a minor setback I think Richard will get its act together tomorrow once its not attatched to the trough extending up thru the Bahamas. In the meantime it could be a depression.

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging by recon data, it looks like the center might be somewhat elongated. No surprise to me, really.

[cycloneye]

The mission is over as plane is acending. Is the NHC call at 11 PM if they downgrade it to a TD or not after this mission that didn't found anything of TS force at flight level.

[wzrgirl1]

The track changed dramatically in 12 hours but remember it could do the opposite again in 12-24 hours....things change just that quickly in the tropics and as long as there is a tropical system out there, we should make sure to check back periodically for updates.