18z tropical model model suite

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082018

Still ships makes it a hurricane down the road.

[wxman57]

There appear to be two lines of thought with the models. The statistical/dynamical models like BAMM/BAMD move the system VERY slowly - only to 82W at 120hrs and keep the center farther south. GFDL moves the storm at closer to 15kts (as it is moving now) to near Jamaica in 72 hours. But then the GFDL turns it north across eastern Cuba to near Miami at 126hrs (70kt winds then).

I've been studying the low/mid/upper wind flow projections and think the GFDL may be too far north beyond 72 hours. But, interestingly enough, the GFDL shows a ridge developing to the north of the storm at 126 hrs as it nears Miami.

But if this storm makes it into the Gulf, steering currents look very light. No telling where this one will go.

As I look at the disturbance as of 2pm I can see very good outflow and a definite consolidation of squalls near the mid-level center. Note how the convetion is dying out fast east of the Islands now.

We may well have a TD/TS on Friday.

[cycloneye]

Interesting run by the models but let's see in reallity what will happen because first it has to develop into a TD and then things start rolling from there in terms of the models.

[ColdFront77]

Yes indeed, Luis. Looking at model runs after we have (at least) a tropical depression is very important.

The more dramatic forecast models change from run to run the more interesting the movement, as well as development will be with the system.