ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[ronjon]

Looks like the center has moved or redeveloped east toward the area of heaviest convection. Extremely cold cloud tops now forming.

[Blown Away]

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/3240/hurricanerichard.jpg

October tracks of storms within 100 miles of 99L.

Hahaha that is probably the least predictive map I have ever seen. Every storm ends up somewhere different - it really shows what a crazy time of year this can be!

I see most storms turning NE towards Florida/Cuba/Bahamas before landfalling in the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

GFS is forecasting considerable shear across the southern Gulf for early next week, when it could possibly move north of 21N and get to the southern Gulf. Strong (40kt) west winds aloft and SE winds in the mid and low levels. Not a favorable environment should it reach the Gulf. It's best shot of being a strong hurricane will be near northern Honduras Fri-Sun.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center is still estimated to be W of the deep convection:

[ronjon]

GFS is forecasting considerable shear across the southern Gulf for early next week, when it could possibly move north of 21N and get to the southern Gulf. Strong (40kt) west winds aloft and SE winds in the mid and low levels. Not a favorable environment should it reach the Gulf. It's best shot of being a strong hurricane will be near northern Honduras Fri-Sun.

GFS does forecast a small window of 200 mb winds dropping to less than 10 kts in the 150 hr time frame in the GOM though.

[gatorcane]

Well if it were up to the models this would have been inland into Nicaragua earlier this week. Look back at model runs from last weekend. It's much further north and east than really anybody thought.

[StormingB81]

Question...Why do they rename them from say Invest 99L to Invest 19?

[plasticup]

Doesnt that Orange track look similiar to a charley track...

HWRF shows only a weakening Cat 1. And it is a serious outlier. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that.

[StormingB81]

I am just saying the track not the intensity..plus it is a model and there is still a long way to go.

[Typhoon_Willie]

On the Nrl site it states 19L now.

[Ntxw]

Well if it were up to the models this would have been inland into Nicaragua earlier this week. Look back at model runs from last weekend. It's much further north and east than really anybody thought.

That was longer out compared to now then with no defined system and the pattern wasn't clear. The models have a center now to work with and a clearer picture on upper patterns. Arguably they were everywhere from then until recently and have somewhat diverged into a possible solution.

[HURAKAN]

Question...Why do they rename them from say Invest 99L to Invest 19?

invest_RENUMBER_al992010_al192010.ren

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that the NHC track will have to follow the consensus toward northern Belize or southern Yucatan. The question will be does it make it to the Gulf and if so when and how strong will the shear be at that point in time?

[cycloneye]

Question...Why do they rename them from say Invest 99L to Invest 19?

When is oficial at the first advisory at 11 PM EDT,it will be Tropical Depression 19.Weatherunderground has that preliminary idenfication until it's oficial.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't how credible the models are. I see one has it near the Texas Coast.

[wxman57]

GFS is forecasting considerable shear across the southern Gulf for early next week, when it could possibly move north of 21N and get to the southern Gulf. Strong (40kt) west winds aloft and SE winds in the mid and low levels. Not a favorable environment should it reach the Gulf. It's best shot of being a strong hurricane will be near northern Honduras Fri-Sun.

GFS does forecast a small window of 200 mb winds dropping to less than 10 kts in the 150 hr time frame in the GOM though.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif

That may be a day and a half after it's already entered the strong shear in the southern Gulf. So it could be ripped apart by then (if not before).

[gatorcane]

IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Interesting track!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 81.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[psyclone]

tough to imagine this being anything of consequence should it make it to the gulf...in addition to the likely hostile upper level environment the water temps have tanked. only the yankee tourists are in the water now. that said, i'm -removed- this puppy here (or its remnants) as we haven't had a solitary drop of rain in a month.