ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg


starting to get that look

[wxman57]

The NHC has been slow upgrading Paula and now 99L I wonder why? I know Recon is the best way to get data from a tropical cyclone but as wxman57 said there are enough observations and imagery to upgrade it.

Maybe because it is not a threat to land at this point and they want to be sure. Who knows....

Squalls are over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica now. Residents there consider themselves as being on land. The nearest squall is now 85 miles from the LLC. That would be the only reason for no upgrade.

[MGC]

Shear has really caused 99L to be less organized this morning IMO....convection well displaced to the east. Looks more like a remnant low to me....unless a new center forms where the convection is I don't see 99L getting upgraded until convection fires over the current center or a new one forms under the current convection.......MGC

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg


starting to get that look

The sheared naked swirl look? Lol...I agree.

[FireRat]

Well guys, now that we're closer to the suspect dates of TC formation we've seen from the models of last week, and clearly haven't seen a CA/EPAC event as of the 20th of Oct.....we should not count out the small likelihood this one does make it to S. Florida on October 25 as the earliest models HINTED. 5 days out, we are not in fantasy land anymore. NOW IT'S TIME TO BEGIN REAL MONITORING FOR WHATEVER THE STORM DECIDES TO DO.

[wzrgirl1]

Lots of sarcasm on here today. I think I will refrain from posting my opinions on here for awhile and just observe from a distance.

[Sanibel]

We could see a real change in 36 hours when WX57's shear relaxes.

[FireRat]

Amazing how the storm may actually take shape pretty darn close to where the long range models had it as a strengthening storm around October 21-22, south of Cuba. Time will tell rather shortly if we're on the verge of seeing the "real deal" of October.

[Sanibel]

This is what I thought Paula's remnants might do. There's definitely some kind of persistant pattern that sent a second system right up Paula's track.


Caribbean really played out this year, probably because of the potential warned about by NHC in the spring. Everyone thinks of Mitch but I personally think the tropical potential is down because of constant cold fronts up here over Forida.


Marty on the Belize board is on top of it and highlighted the warning for a potential hurricane into Yucatan for his folks.

[dwsqos2]

That's a nice 1010.7 mb low.

I'm going with the globals on this one: weak ts tops.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

I don't think it qualifies for an upgrade presently, as the shear is pushing the squalls farther from the center. It was stronger yesterday and overnight than it is now. We'll have to wait for shear to relax in a day or two for it to really get going.

[cycloneye]

Decoded Vortex Message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 15:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°20'N 82°01'W (17.3333N 82.0167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the SSW (197°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 247° at 11kts (From the WSW at ~ 12.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 273m (896ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 24kts (~ 27.6mph) in the east quadrant at 15:54:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 24kts (~ 27.6mph) in the east quadrant at 15:54:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ESE (122°) from the flight level center

[HURAKAN]

Center is clear as water

[srainhoutx]

And moving slowly S.

[GCANE]

Looks like a good window of opportunity further south.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

[Cyclone1]

Lots of sarcasm on here today. I think I will refrain from posting my opinions on here for awhile and just observe from a distance.

Lol, yeah me too. One of my jokes was removed. Hard to transfer a "light-hearted tone" through text.

[wxman57]

Less wind than yesterday, less convection. No upgrade today. Will have to let the shear decline first.

[Vortex]

Once the shear relaxes in 24 hours or so we should have lift off..

[latitude_20]

Noticed recon measured a series of 1008mb readings.

[MGC]

Yea, moving southward....shear and dry air has done a number on 99L. For sure no upgrade today....MGC