Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Preliminary Report of rainfall caused by Otto

Certainly,it rained a lot in Puerto Rico, and I am sure it rained much more in the Leewards and the BVI as the reports from our friends confirmed it.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=recordotto

[BZSTORM]

Belize Met webste just added today another radar link 400Km http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest%20Rad ... Image.html
so now we have 50km, 250km and 400km pictures.
this new wider radar image covers a good portion of Mexcio as well as Honduras & Guatemala

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Generally, dry weather prevails in Puerto Rico this weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST SAT OCT 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIR WEATHER
THOUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERATE ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND DRIFT
NORTHWEST...AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
16/16Z WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST..TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFT 16/16Z...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. VCTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJPS...AND VCSH ACROSS TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL
PASSAGES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 85 76 / 20 10 20 20
STT 87 76 86 75 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

What a contrast from rainy weather last week to dry and pleasant weather in the islands in the past few days and will likely continue for a few more days.

St Croix



St Maarten



Another St Maarten cam



ST John cam



ST Thomas

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SAT OCT 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS IT
TRIES TO CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IT WILL BECOME A VERY WEAK
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE FRINGE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THE NIGHT OF THE SUNDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT MID LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW
AT MID LEVELS CROSSES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A
WESTWARD COURSE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATORIAL
LATITUDES INCLUDING THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22 NORTH TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS HAVE DEVELOPED LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT. LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFIES THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA. DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FORMS A RIDGE
FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FILAMENT OF MOISTURE VISIBLE IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT
WAS SEEN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOLLOWED THIS FEATURE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WERE STILL DEVELOPING
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AS OF 2:30 PM AST...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. ALSO OF NOTE...THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WISP OF VOLCANIC ASH EXTENDING FROM
MONTSERRAT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AND THEN TURNING NORTHWEST AND
WIDENING CONSIDERABLY SO AS TO COVER THE ISLAND FROM HUMACAO TO
JUAN DIAZ AND FROM CANOVANAS TO ARECIBO AS IT CROSSED TO THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS GAVE A SLIGHTLY HAZY CAST TO THE
AIR IN THESE AREAS. THIS TRAIL OF ASH WILL PASS TO OUR WEST
OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND EVEN EAST
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE SHOWER PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY POOR AT MID LEVELS...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...LIKELY TO BE GENERATED BY THE QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS ALSO HAS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE GULF OF THE MOSQUITOES AFTER TUESDAY AND A COLD
FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND FLATTENS OUT JUST NORTH
OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE
FOLLOWING SUNDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE FROM THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMES BACK ON THE FLOW AROUND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH AND BRUSHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 16/22Z. ELSEWHERE...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES WILL ARRIVE IN PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPERIMPOSE SOME VERY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
OF 4 TO 5 FEET FROM THE EAST ONTO SOME SWELL OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY
CONFUSED SEAS AND A ROUGH RIDE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY
AS THE SWELL DIMINISH. THE WIND WAVES...HOWEVER...WILL ONLY WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 87 / 10 20 20 20
STT 78 86 77 87 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good Sunday morning.

FXCA62 TJSJ 170833
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS IT
TRIES TO CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IT WILL BECOME A VERY WEAK
TROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW
AFFECTING PORTIONS THE PUERTO RICO COASTAL SECTIONS...CULEBRA AND
THE NORTHERN USVI. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY THEREFORE EXPECT MODERATE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

A SHORT WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THEREFORE
EXPECT THE WEATHER ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX..AND
TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 17/16Z. AFTER 16Z...BRIEF PERIODS IF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ IN
NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WW3 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
MOTHERLY SWELL FOR LATE MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL ONLY REACH 6
FEET AND PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE THOUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 77 / 30 20 20 20
STT 87 76 87 77 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

[caribsue]

Started out as a beautiful sunny day here in Barbados up until about 1000hrs then bang the rain started and has not stopped yet. where did this come from. Hope you safe and dry Abajan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE JUST
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS
IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE GREATER
ANTILLES...MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PASS NORTH
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. BY LATE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC TO
FLORIDA...MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SHIFTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND NOW HAS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. HENCE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS FALLEN ON OR NEAR THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM VILLALBA WEST. SOME SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. DRY AIR MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE WEST OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS SUPPRESSED ALMOST ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE TODAY. BANDS AND FILAMENTS OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
PATCHES OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAINLY IN
THE WEST AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES BEYOND THIS ARE ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES 20
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECT. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONT RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 17/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER TNCM AND
TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL WILL ARRIVE FROM A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS AROUND THE EXITING LOW HAVE
NOT FAVORED WAVE HEIGHTS HERE AS HIGH AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 86 / 0 10 20 20
STT 76 87 79 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

What a contrast from rainy weather last week to dry and pleasant weather in the islands in the past few days and will likely continue for a few more days.

St Croix



St Maarten



Another St Maarten cam



ST John cam



ST Thomas

A very pleasant Sunday in the islands as you can see. Who wants to come to a vacation from the states to get away from the cold weather?

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The good weather will continue today and for most of this week, so enjoy it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON OCT 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
AWAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THEN ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR TJMZ FROM
18/16Z-18/22Z...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE...AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15
KTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 6
FEET...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 20

[msbee]

Good morning

Beautiful weather today.
As you can see from the photo I captured from the web cam this morning, everything is crystal clear.



On the horizon to the right of the hill and to the left of the boat, you can clearly see St. Kitts which is approximately 50 miles away from us.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST MON OCT 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...DISPLACING A TUTT LOW NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS A RESULT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...IF
ANY...SHOULD DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH A TUTT EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...DISPLACING THE
TUTT LOW AWAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW EARLY MORNING LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO EACH MORNING...IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON DUE
TO ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...MTN OBSCURATIONS IN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 18/22Z HOWEVER ONLY BRIEF MVFR IS EXPECTED IN
EITHER TJMZ OR TJPS DURING THAT TIME. SOME CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR UNTIL
19/08Z IN TKPK OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 6 FEET...BUT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 10 20 10 10
STT 76 87 76 87 / 10 20 10 10

[Gustywind]

Very strong showers here in Guadeloupe. I won't be afraid tommorow if Meteo-France measurements reveal amount of water up to 50 millimeters or even more in some areas of the islands. I have dealt with very strong showers at les Abymes between 3 and 5 PM. Grounds were satured where i was. Things are improved since 6 PM hopefully...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST MON OCT 18 2010

.UPDATE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
DERIVED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS RESULT...
THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEN...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE
LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
AFT 19/18Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA.

[Macrocane]

Good evening! This is a short update. After 16 days without rain in San Salvador this night we've had some thunders and moderate rains, it seems like the dry season has not begun yet and the last 2 weeks of october will be rather wet. I will post some observations tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST TUE OCT 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND A PESKY MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION...WILL RESULT
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THAT SAID...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BRUSH THE FA TODAY AND THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR TJMZ FROM
19/16Z-19/22Z...AND PREVAILING VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.
LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 6 FEET...BUT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN NORTH SWELLS...WHICH WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA AND
ANEGADA PASSAGES TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 76 / 20 10 10 40
STT 87 75 87 78 / 20 10 10 40

[abajan]

Started out as a beautiful sunny day here in Barbados up until about 1000hrs then bang the rain started and has not stopped yet. where did this come from. Hope you safe and dry Abajan.

Haven’t checked this thread in a while, so I missed your entry.

The rain began here about 2 hours after it started at your location and I estimate we had about an inch. It really was a bright morning but I noticed dark clouds gathering in the west-southwest and slowly covering the sky when I got home from church around 9 o’clock.

Save for the flooding we had to start off the month and the rain just mentioned, this has been a rather unusual October. We don’t normally get such long dry spells at this time of year. October and November are statistically the wettest months. Of course, last year’s October (and November) was also dry. As a matter of fact, they were probably the driest ever recorded but we were in the throws of a strong El Niño at the time, I think. Perhaps things will change with the return of the MJO’s wet phase. I’m not sure when that is due though.