WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Hope those black colored cloud tops DO NOT REACH the metro...
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
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WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.7N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.2N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 118.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS
TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 181509Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER ALL QUADRANTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND TCB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 115
KNOTS PLUS THE STRONG MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING
OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR-
STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM,
NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING STR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR
RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.7N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.2N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 118.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 15W HAS
TRACKED BACK OVER WATER AND HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 181509Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER ALL QUADRANTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CHINA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND TCB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 115
KNOTS PLUS THE STRONG MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 24-72 BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING
OF THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND EVIDENCE OF A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE DATA) HAS SUBSEQUENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A STAIR-
STEP PATTERN. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, JGSM,
NOGAPS, GFDN) PLUS WBAR NOW SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING STR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR
RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 72. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
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21Z sat fix bulletins:
TXPN23 KNES 182106
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/2030Z
C. 16.3N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...WORKED UP DT 2 WAYS WITH BLACK EMBEDDED CENTER AND WHITE EYE
SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND BOTH CAME UP AS DT=5.0. MET AND PAT UNREALISTIC
DUE TO CENTER COMING OFF LAND LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO... SO FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1509Z 16.8N 119.9E TMI
18/1750Z 16.6N 119.4E AMSRE
18/1828Z 16.4N 119.4E AMSU
...SWANSON
=
656
TCNA20 RJTD 182100
CCAA 18210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17167 11188 134/4 2//// 92610=
WTSS20 VHHH 181945
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 181800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE
NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.
TXPN23 KNES 182106
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/2030Z
C. 16.3N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...WORKED UP DT 2 WAYS WITH BLACK EMBEDDED CENTER AND WHITE EYE
SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND BOTH CAME UP AS DT=5.0. MET AND PAT UNREALISTIC
DUE TO CENTER COMING OFF LAND LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO... SO FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1509Z 16.8N 119.9E TMI
18/1750Z 16.6N 119.4E AMSRE
18/1828Z 16.4N 119.4E AMSU
...SWANSON
=
656
TCNA20 RJTD 182100
CCAA 18210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17167 11188 134/4 2//// 92610=
WTSS20 VHHH 181945
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 181800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE
NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
ClarkEligue wrote:Hope those black colored cloud tops DO NOT REACH the metro...
on the metro
it could be colided wind speed made colided and push the clouds up
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WTPQ20 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 16.7N 118.8E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 16.7N 116.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 201800UTC 17.9N 115.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 211800UTC 18.8N 115.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 182100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 182100 UTC
00HR 16.8N 118.8E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.8N 116.3E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 17.7N 115.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 19.1N 114.3E 925HPA 57M/S
P+96HR 20.5N 112.0E 925HPA 57M/S
P+120HR 22.0N 109.3E 980HPA 30M/S=
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 16.7N 118.8E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 16.7N 116.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 201800UTC 17.9N 115.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 211800UTC 18.8N 115.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 182100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 182100 UTC
00HR 16.8N 118.8E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.8N 116.3E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 17.7N 115.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 19.1N 114.3E 925HPA 57M/S
P+96HR 20.5N 112.0E 925HPA 57M/S
P+120HR 22.0N 109.3E 980HPA 30M/S=
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
wow megi could be intensifying rapidly. about 2 hours ago, there wasn't any eye now it has an eye
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
NASA IMAGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
My morning update, thanks for all the information on here guys, this site makes these much more informative. One of the videos got an amazing 8K views, witch is a lot on my count.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSZORcRTN0[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSZORcRTN0[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
00Z sat fixes with T5.0 from PGTW and T6.0 from RJTD:
TPPN11 PGTW 190036
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 16.2N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE WLG SURR CNVCTN
YIELDING 5.0 DT. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT AGREES W DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2053Z 16.5N 119.2E SSMI
ROSS
416
TCNA21 RJTD 190000
CCAA 19000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17163 11189 13406 260// 92608=
TPPN11 PGTW 190036
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 16.2N
D. 119.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE WLG SURR CNVCTN
YIELDING 5.0 DT. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT AGREES W DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2053Z 16.5N 119.2E SSMI
ROSS
416
TCNA21 RJTD 190000
CCAA 19000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17163 11189 13406 260// 92608=
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An eye is trying to reform but its got that spread out look to the inner core, probably will be stabalise close to 100kts until it sorts out that inner core a little better on the microwave imagery.
Looks larger now it has to be said.
Also Hong Kong may just need to keep an eye on this system, the agencies do seem to have shifted closer together a little SW of HK, close enough for them to be in the cone of uncertainty anyway.
Looks larger now it has to be said.
Also Hong Kong may just need to keep an eye on this system, the agencies do seem to have shifted closer together a little SW of HK, close enough for them to be in the cone of uncertainty anyway.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
JMA has increased its forecast back to 100 knots peak in the SCS.
WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16.6N 118.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 16.8N 116.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.8N 115.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
Those are some very cold tops.
WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16.6N 118.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 16.8N 116.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.8N 115.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
Those are some very cold tops.
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hurricaneCW
- Category 5
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- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
MEGI remains very dangerous plus it's a lot larger than before. I definitely think we could see it ramp up to what would be a Category 4 in the Atlantic. Probably 120-125 knots.
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WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16.6N 118.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 16.8N 116.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.8N 115.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 230000UTC 21.3N 115.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 240000UTC 24.5N 114.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 16.6N 118.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 16.8N 116.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.8N 115.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 230000UTC 21.3N 115.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 240000UTC 24.5N 114.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT =
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Still dumping rains in the Metro, with some cool breeze. Convection starts to strengthen much more as it enters SCS.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Rockledge, Florida
Man this storm is going ot be one for the record books and the retired books..however
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101018/ts ... 1018113131
Reading the news stories so far there is only 3 dead in the philipines which is sad but if only 3 have died in all of PI from this storm that is amazing. Sad that people have died but I thought it was going to be much worse! Hopefully the news reports don't shift
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101018/ts ... 1018113131
Reading the news stories so far there is only 3 dead in the philipines which is sad but if only 3 have died in all of PI from this storm that is amazing. Sad that people have died but I thought it was going to be much worse! Hopefully the news reports don't shift
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