But sadly, I'm sure this man won't be the only one.WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Megi/Juan has turned deadly: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Dea ... 59059.html
But sadly, I'm sure this man won't be the only one.
But sadly, I'm sure this man won't be the only one.
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WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.0N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.1N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.5N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.4N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE,
LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE AROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND
HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE
LIKELY UNREPRESENATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ENTER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AND WILL STEADILY RE-
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE A MORE NORTH OF WEST
TRACK. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING
UNREALISTIC TRACKS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 16.8N 121.2E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 16.1N 118.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200600UTC 16.9N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 210600UTC 18.0N 115.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 180900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC
00HR 17.1N 121.2E 910HPA 60M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.0N 117.5E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.2N 115.7E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 19.4N 114.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.9N 113.0E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 20.4N 111.3E 935HPA 52M/S=
WTPQ20 VHHH 180745
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 180600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
TXPN23 KNES 180902
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 17.3N
D. 121.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION CENTER CLEARLY OVER NRN LUZON.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/0538Z 17.4N 122.1E AMSRE
...NEWHARD
=
TPPN11 PGTW 180910
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 17.1N
D. 121.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES
092
TCNA20 RJTD 180900
CCAA 18090 47644 MEGI(1013) 17168 11212 123/4 2//// 92415=
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.0N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.9N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.1N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.5N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.4N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE,
LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE AROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND
HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE
LIKELY UNREPRESENATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ENTER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AND WILL STEADILY RE-
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE A MORE NORTH OF WEST
TRACK. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING
UNREALISTIC TRACKS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 16.8N 121.2E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 16.1N 118.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200600UTC 16.9N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 210600UTC 18.0N 115.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 180900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC
00HR 17.1N 121.2E 910HPA 60M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.0N 117.5E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.2N 115.7E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 19.4N 114.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.9N 113.0E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 20.4N 111.3E 935HPA 52M/S=
WTPQ20 VHHH 180745
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 180600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.
TXPN23 KNES 180902
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 17.3N
D. 121.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION CENTER CLEARLY OVER NRN LUZON.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/0538Z 17.4N 122.1E AMSRE
...NEWHARD
=
TPPN11 PGTW 180910
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0830Z
C. 17.1N
D. 121.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES
092
TCNA20 RJTD 180900
CCAA 18090 47644 MEGI(1013) 17168 11212 123/4 2//// 92415=
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Evening Update all, hope everyone continues to stay safe.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeNgrIrX6do[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeNgrIrX6do[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
We are watching TV Patrol on TFC here in Guam right now with family and I see alot of damage.
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StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 43
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- Location: Rockledge, Florida
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpres ... 391459925A
Sad news already bus swept away in flood waters....this artlicle says 27 dead already
Sad news already bus swept away in flood waters....this artlicle says 27 dead already
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5ivyUFNnV8kv4w1ylbh34vjhulrxg?docId=N0327621287391459925A
Sad news already bus swept away in flood waters....this artlicle says 27 dead already
Yeah, I was hearing about the flooding in China...this typhoon is adding insult to injury, right now.
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Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10145
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
What was the sustained winds at landfall? What a beautiful Typhoon and I got to think there is a catastrophy along its path. Hoping and praying for the best!
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
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P.K.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
125kts at landfall. Only the 3rd time any system has reached this level in the JMA BT however neither Bess (1982) or Tip (1979) made landfall at anywhere near that strength.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Blown Away wrote:What was the sustained winds at landfall? What a beautiful Typhoon and I got to think there is a catastrophy along its path. Hoping and praying for the best!
155 kt (1 minute sustained winds).
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StormingB81
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
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- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
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The article in regards to the 27 dead is in Vietnam, WIth that region already devastated by floods if this storm moves due W it will be so horrific to the region. Overall SE china is devastated by floods right now, this seems like it just can't not end well.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
On satellite, you can already see the portion of the storm over water flaring up again on the northern periphery. It's like it was holding its breath under water (or over land, more like) and is coming up for air again.
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155kts is just unreal for a landfalling system, its exceptionally rare for such a power system to come ashore, the Sat.picture of it making landfall says it all really.
Anyway inner core has really gone to pot, just need to hope it can't reorganise itself after it emerges, sometimes these long land travels totally ruins the core, as we saw with Ike and they can't ever get it back together to the same extent...does tend to mean the system fattens out and can still get decently strong...certainly strong enough to still cause major damage.
The story of Megi is far from done yet guys, landfall number 2 is going to need to be watched very closely people!
Anyway inner core has really gone to pot, just need to hope it can't reorganise itself after it emerges, sometimes these long land travels totally ruins the core, as we saw with Ike and they can't ever get it back together to the same extent...does tend to mean the system fattens out and can still get decently strong...certainly strong enough to still cause major damage.
The story of Megi is far from done yet guys, landfall number 2 is going to need to be watched very closely people!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Don't pass false information around please guys. It was 145 knots from the JTWC at landfall, not 155. JMA was at 125 knots.
Latest from JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 16.7N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.3N 117.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 201200UTC 17.3N 116.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211200UTC 18.5N 116.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
Latest from JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 16.7N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.3N 117.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 201200UTC 17.3N 116.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211200UTC 18.5N 116.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
Last edited by Chacor on Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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