WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Cyclenall]

Shocked here to witness the strongest tropical cyclone landfall in recorded history anywhere in the world!! Such a jaw-dropping beast, when it first formed I knew this was going to become the strongest TC this year in the Wpac but I didn't expect the rest!

Does anyone know if there are humans in the direct eye of Megi currently including storm chasers? This would be a great opportunity to film category 5 winds in daylight (footage that apparently still doesn't exist). The communities directly hit will no doubt be annihilated by this, even inland as well. Should still be well over 110 knots through it's passage.

I'm pleased to see recon got into this, it's about time a historic storm got some official data obs.

If it made landfall with the estimated pressure of 885 mb (can't believe it), how can one say the winds weakened down to 145 or 140 knots? There is a major disconnect here, I doubt the pressure would remain the same. I think the winds were still 150 knots just before landfall.

Do we know the windspeed at landfall?

I would like to know this too (above paragraph). Someone should go into the eyewall with a hand-held gauge to find out .

[Chacor]

The pressure estimate of 885 hPa is from the JMA (RSMC). 145 kt at landfall is from JTWC; JMA had 125 kt (which is still around 145 kt when converted).

Typhoon Hunter's in the area.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know if someone already told this, but I saw a video from a local channel, and there's this tricycle turned upside down by the strong winds. I was just shocked.

[Cyclenall]

I don't know if someone already told this, but I saw a video from a local channel, and there's this tricycle turned upside down by the strong winds. I was just shocked.

That can happen in tropical storm force winds, category 5 winds would take the tricycle and ream it through a brick wall.

[supercane]

06Z sat bulletins:
TPPN11 PGTW 180616
A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0530Z
C. 17.2N
D. 121.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DT UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVERLAND. MET AND PT YIELD AT 7.0. DBO PT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0142Z 17.4N 122.9E MMHS
GATES

347
TCNA21 RJTD 180600
CCAA 18060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17171 11218 12424 270// 92615=

Eye really filling in now that Megi has made landfall:


Last reports from both Aparri and Tuguegarao were 2 hrs ago; Aparri reported NE winds at 40mph, Tuguegarao N at 22mph.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know if someone already told this, but I saw a video from a local channel, and there's this tricycle turned upside down by the strong winds. I was just shocked.

That can happen in tropical storm force winds, category 5 winds would take the tricycle and ream it through a brick wall.

It was like that, it was dragged by the wind and rolled over the ground...but actually the video was taken 10am local time, before the actual landfall.

[JTE50]

I don't know if someone already told this, but I saw a video from a local channel, and there's this tricycle turned upside down by the strong winds. I was just shocked.

That can happen in tropical storm force winds, category 5 winds would take the tricycle and ream it through a brick wall.

It may be some time before we see what has happened in the worst hit areas. I'm thinking days not hours.

[supercane]

JMA MSW down to 110kt, MSLP up to 910mb.

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 17.1N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 16.3N 118.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200600UTC 16.9N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210600UTC 18.0N 115.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =



WTPQ20 BABJ 180600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC
00HR 17.2N 121.8E 900HPA 68M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.9N 119.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.6N 116.4E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 18.9N 114.7E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.5N 113.6E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 20.0N 111.9E 930HPA 52M/S=

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 17.1N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 16.3N 118.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200600UTC 16.9N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210600UTC 18.0N 115.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

Weakening fast.

[oaba09]

Down to 110 knots per JMA....

[oaba09]

Metro manila is experiencing signal # 1 type winds(60 kph and below)...Nothing to worry about here...The same can't be said to our brothers in the north though.....

[StormingB81]

Hopefully out typhoon Hunter isn't doing that bad..hopefully he is faring well...

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 17.1N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 16.3N 118.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200600UTC 16.9N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210600UTC 18.0N 115.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 220600UTC 19.5N 115.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 230600UTC 21.0N 114.8E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY =



WTKO20 RKSL 180600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180600UTC 17.1N 121.8E
MOVEMENT WSW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 190600UTC 16.6N 118.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 200600UTC 17.2N 116.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
72HR
POSITION 210600UTC 18.5N 115.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



ASCAT prior to landfall, but useful for wind distribution:


00Z NOGAPS actually most sane out of this model bunch including GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Don't know why UKMET tracker not showing up:

[Crostorm]

Watch this footage by cameraman Geoff Mackley as Super Typhoon Megi begins to lash the town of Aparri in the Philippines.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/vi ... _id=114583

[phwxenthusiast]

guys i have a question...

what do you call the phenomenon wherein the typhoon/hurricane that is moving across the ocean is making that area cooler, and thus unfavorable for immediate development of another storm??

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know Typhoon Hunter, I would bet a dime and a nickel that this system will develop in to something.

Somehow, I accidentally ended up on the first page of this thread....but saw this and thought I'd better remind Rob...

Someone owes you 15¢

Where's my money!

[RobWESTPACWX]

guys i have a question...

what do you call the phenomenon wherein the typhoon/hurricane that is moving across the ocean is making that area cooler, and thus unfavorable for immediate development of another storm??

I'm not sure if there is an exact name for that, but the general process is called upwelling.

[Typhoon10]

My company have just issued their 1st preparation warning for HK!

[supercane]

guys i have a question...

what do you call the phenomenon wherein the typhoon/hurricane that is moving across the ocean is making that area cooler, and thus unfavorable for immediate development of another storm??

upwelling

From wikipedia upwelling article: "Upwelling can also occur when a tropical cyclone transits an area, usually when moving at speeds of less than 5 mph (8 km/h). The churning of a cyclone eventually draws up cooler water from lower layers of the ocean."

This was actually one of the main points of ITOP:

How does the cold wake of a typhoon form and dissipate?
Typhoons produce a complex three‐dimensional response of the underlying
ocean including strong surface currents, upwelling of the thermocline,
intense mixing across the thermocline, the radiation of near‐inertial internal
waves and the formation of a cold wake behind the storm. The cold wake
persists for at least several weeks after the typhoon passage, with a
combination of solar heating, lateral mesoscale stirring, lateral mixing by
baroclinic instability and continued vertical mixing determining the rate and
character of wake dissipation. The wake is also expected to modify the
atmospheric boundary layer and the biology and chemistry of the upper
ocean, particularly pCO2. ITOP seeks to measure the ocean response in
detail, with particular emphasis on the mechanisms of cold wake formation
and dissipation, and to compare these measurements with model results.

The last flight of ITOP, a ship, and a buoy array are all investigating this phenomena.

[phwxenthusiast]

guys i have a question...

what do you call the phenomenon wherein the typhoon/hurricane that is moving across the ocean is making that area cooler, and thus unfavorable for immediate development of another storm??

I'm not sure if there is an exact name for that, but the general process is called upwelling.

that's what i'm looking for!!! many thanks...
yeah about that, i'm seeing a lot of invests east of the Philippines right now... aside from the high wind shear in the region, do you think upwelling will stop any development in the near future??