WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

Cimaron was nowhere close though, 915 hPa pressure iirc.

[YB2010]

amazing storm to follow, but devastation a certainty. hopefully those in it's path have had the opportunity to prepare, although the fear being even that will not help in far too many instances. the rice crop is another story. wishing those people well as it bears down on them.

[supercane]

There is a PAGASA Wx station in Tuguegarao so hopefully we can get some obs near the eye.

Unfortunately both Tuguegarao (RPUT, synop id: 98233) and Aparri (RPUA, 98232) only report on synoptic hours and do not appear to issue METARs. 00Z obs below:
Tuguegarao: AAXX 18001 98233 11456 83603 10255 20244 49975 56009 60914 76264 8557/ 333 20221 56899 59120
Aparri:AAXX 18001 98232 11565 83612 10270 20257 40105 53010 60664 71588 8557/ 222// 20102 333 20245 56999 59003
Nothing much to report yet, with both places reporting rain, Aparri with N winds at 27kt. Easiest to look for obs through Weather Underground or other sources.
Decoding guide from UNISYS.

[vbhoutex]

First pics out of Appari that I am aware of: http://www.facebook.com/#!/album.php?aid=297732&id=775432052

[RobWESTPACWX]

A little late, but better late than never... Todays Video, most of it you all know..
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdc-dnLMP_Y[/youtube]

[JTE50]

First pics out of Appari that I am aware of: http://www.facebook.com/#!/album.php?aid=297732&id=775432052

That's funny, they picked the same motel I did - The Ryan. James, I hope you didn't get the same room I had - the roof leaks !!! Cover your gear!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

Very close to land now...

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA Twitter update:

Ilagan, Isabela - almost zero visibility, heavy rains and strong winds
16 minutes ago via web

[Chacor]

Eye has filled in now. Should have weakened.

[ozonepete]

Eye has filled in now. Should have weakened.

I'm confused. From the latest satellite images the eye doesn't look filled in at all. In the visible image Hurakan just posted you can see a completely perfect eye with low level mesovortices swirling inside it. How has it filled in?

[supercane]

Latest PAGASA bulletin:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 18 October 2010
Typhoon "JUAN" has continued to slow down as it interacts with the landmass of eastern coast of Isabela.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 120 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.6°N, 122.8°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 225 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 260 kph
Movement: West Southwest at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday noon - 2pm:
expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Palanan, Isabela
Tuesday morning:
150 km West Northwest of Baguio City
Wednesday morning:
540 km West Northwest of Baguio City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 4
( >185 kph winds) Cagayan
Isabela
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
None None
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds) Babuyan Group of Islands
Calayan Group of Islands
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
La Union
Apayao
None None
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Polillio Island
Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Batanes Group
Rest of Aurora
None None
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Cavite
Bulacan
Pampanga
Bataan
Zambales
Northern Quezon
Metro Manila
Rizal
Laguna
Batangas None None

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signals # 4, # 3 and # 2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions, monitor the hourly updates and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

WTPH RPMM 180000
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10

AT 0000 18 OCTOBER TYPHOON (MEGI) {1013} WAS LOCATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE TWO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS SIX TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 200000 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

[RobWESTPACWX]

The eye is still strong, some low level CU in the base though, shows slight weakening, but thats from from 145kts to 140kts, still STY Cat 5 devastation.

[HURAKAN]

closer to landfall

[RobWESTPACWX]

STY or not, you still haft to go to work, check about 40s in, someone is fishing....
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFn3rbOJYYE[/youtube]

[ozonepete]

closer to landfall

WOW!

[CrazyC83]

Based on JMA data, Megi will be the most intense landfalling storm in world history if it maintains its 885mb pressure.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.4N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 885HPA
MXWD 125KT
GUST 175KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 16.5N 118.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200000UTC 17.0N 117.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



WTPQ20 BABJ 180300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 17.4N 122.5E 900HPA 70M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 17.1N 119.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.6N 116.4E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 18.9N 114.9E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.5N 113.6E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.9N 112.1E 930HPA 52M/S=

KNES Dvorak also down to T7.0.
TXPN23 KNES 180310
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 17.4N
D. 122.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/6HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/2108Z 17.4N 123.8E SSMI
17/2242Z 17.5N 123.4E SSMIS
...NEWHARD
=

[Macrocane]

Megi will be one of the most intense tropical cyclones at landfall, is very rare to see such an impressive storm just about to make landfall, it's scary.

[CrazyC83]

885mb = WORLD RECORD for landfall intensity. (Current record is the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane at 892mb)