WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#641 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:28 am

Infdidoll wrote:Wish I could give you a standing ovation, supercane, for the info you found about how mountainous terrains affect storms. A huge THANK YOU! I've had a busy afternoon, but I am going back to peruse all of it, now. Thank you so very much for sharing your knowledge once again. This is fascinating stuff!

I also agree with you about PAGASA. I was reading about unemployment, problems with the economy of the country and corruption in the government. The government's first and foremost worries don't sound like the occasional hurricane. They can raise signal alerts faster, but where can those deeply entrenched in poverty evacuate to? Most probably know it's coming, but just don't have a way to evacuate. It's always easy to blame the government (as we should know from Katrina), but the real problem is poverty...and the government just can't eradicate that problem overnight. We're comparing PAGASA to well-funded agencies in economically powerful countries and that's probably not fair. Yeah, their forecasting isn't up to speed...but I don't think the high death toll has as much to do with poor notification as it does having a large population who live in what most areas of the world would equate to poverty.

And to Rob - Great update! I really love that you're doing those. I'll have to post your video up on Facebook. I've got worried parents and wives of guys in my husbands' unit contacting me right and left wanting info on if their kids/husbands are okay. I think seeing those updates might help give a better idea of where the storm is hitting and put some minds at ease. :wink:



Thanks, and I hope your husband is ok down there, I think Subic Bay and Manilla will be ok with this system, but I"m sure if he in the region his unit will be called upon for relief efforts. Tell him thanks for what he's doing, I know a lot of sailors give jarheads grief, but I tell you this much, I work in a AC office all day, he's on the ground there in the heat.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#642 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:35 am

171kt FL, 162kt SFMR, centre pressure extrap 895hPa. Surface winds around 135kts 10 min now.
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#643 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:40 am

OMG... thats 250 kph.
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#644 Postby oaba09 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:42 am

ricmood wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Definitely moving WSW now....Eye is still impressive...


And way below the projected path. Metro manila still not safe...


I don't think southern luzon have anything to worry about...Even if it does go lower than it's projected path, IMO the most we'll experience is signal #1(below 60 kph wind strength)....
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#645 Postby Infdidoll » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:47 am

He's hanging out at the old Clark AFB right now, north of Manila...but they have evacuated almost of the guys back onto the ship so they're back out on the Pacific somewhere trying to evade Megi. :wink: He's staying behind at the base, though. I'm sure they're going to have loads of humanitarian work to do in the coming days.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#646 Postby oaba09 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:54 am

Infdidoll wrote:He's hanging out at the old Clark AFB right now, north of Manila...but they have evacuated almost of the guys back onto the ship so they're back out on the Pacific somewhere trying to evade Megi. :wink: He's staying behind at the base, though. I'm sure they're going to have loads of humanitarian work to do in the coming days.


That's in Pampanga...There's currently no storm signal raised there so I think your husband should be fine.... :)
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#647 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:55 am

Latest

Image

Image

For southern Luzon, including Manila, I think we will only receive the outer end of the rainbands... Actually I was thinking if Megi goes down further to Isabela then track towards Ilocos Sur-La Union instead, signal#1 could be raised in some areas like Bulacan and Rizal provinces.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#648 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:55 am

Centre pressure of 895hPa confirmed by the eye dropsonde.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#649 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:00 am

P.K. wrote:Centre pressure of 895hPa confirmed by the eye dropsonde.


Wow!! Does this rank in the top 10 for lowest pressure observed in the W PAC? I know their central pressures are often lower though.
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#650 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:06 am

According to Wikipedia, a pressure of 895 mb would tie Megi for 20th place all time. But just a 5 mb drop would tie it for 13th. Megi would have to get down to 885mb to break into the top 10.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#651 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:16 am

TPPN11 PGTW 171205

A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 18.1N

D. 125.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 25NM WMG SMALL ROUND EYE WITH A
CMG RING YIELDS A 6.5 PLUS 1.0 FOR A CMG SURR RING YIELDS A DT
OF A 7.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0836Z 18.4N 125.5E SSMI
17/0858Z 18.4N 125.6E SSMS
17/1008Z 18.3N 125.4E SSMS


GATES
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#652 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:19 am

JMA also T7.5 at 12Z.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#653 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:19 am

Probably 150-155kts (10min) as of now. :eek:
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#654 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:23 am

T7.5 on the JMA's Dvorak scale is 115 knots.

Recon is finding a bombing storm. This thing is going!
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#655 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:28 am

PAGASA still has a ridiculously high central pressure of 938 hPa at 2000 local time.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#656 Postby Infdidoll » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:28 am

oaba09 wrote:
Infdidoll wrote:He's hanging out at the old Clark AFB right now, north of Manila...but they have evacuated almost of the guys back onto the ship so they're back out on the Pacific somewhere trying to evade Megi. :wink: He's staying behind at the base, though. I'm sure they're going to have loads of humanitarian work to do in the coming days.


That's in Pampanga...There's currently no storm signal raised there so I think your husband should be fine.... :)


I'm sure he will be, too...but I'll bet he's scared to death, right now! He's never been through a real typhoon. We had that Cat 2 go past us a few months ago, but it was nothing where we live. I'm feeling like command central over here fielding messages telling people their loved ones are safe and on a boat heading away from the typhoon. Some are just now getting word that there is a typhoon and they know I'm the weather nerd.

He said he thinks the building they are in is pretty secure and they're more worried about flooding than any associated winds...I can't stop watching the satellite loops seeing how close it keeps to track. 8-)
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#657 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:29 am

I'm speechless having seen that 192kt FL reading. This makes it 150kts at the surface even with a 10 min ave.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#658 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:32 am

Has there been any Cat5 typhoon/hurricane at landfall on the record?

By the way, it's going wsw at the moment based on sat loops. Getting more and more impressive, very strong convection wrapping over the eye.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#659 Postby Infdidoll » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:34 am

James is typhoonfury on Twitter, if you have it: http://twitter.com/typhoonfury

I had forgotten all about my Twitter account and then remembered he used to tweet real time updates there. Might be easier for him to do that than to jump on here. Can't wait to hear his updates!
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#660 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 7:37 am

P.K. wrote:I'm speechless having seen that 192kt FL reading. This makes it 150kts at the surface even with a 10 min ave.


Stunning. :eek:
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