WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

JTWC is up to 145 knots.

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.1N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.0N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 125.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI RETAINS ITS SUPER TYPHOON
CLASSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE
SEA TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH A 17/0120Z ITOP
VORTEX MESSAGE, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 143 KNOTS.
MORE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD ALSO SUPPORT
AT LEAST 140 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE BOASTS AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A CIRCULAR 20 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A CLOSED EYEWALL.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VENT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE EAST. MAGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON IN
LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE RUGGED
INTERIOR OF LUZON. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND REINTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKENESS IN THE DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES BEYOND 36 HOURS. NONETHELESS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

[phwxenthusiast]

[soapbox]
I wanted to address this earlier but was too busy with the recon reports. This is not directed toward any one person, but I am concerned about the tone taken by some in posts regarding PAGASA. I don't think anyone would say that PAGASA is among the more sophisticated warning agencies in the Western Pacific basin. However, unless someone can prove otherwise, I have no reason to think that they are lazy, uneducated, or less dedicated to their job than other meteorologists. The fact is that the Philippines is still relatively poor economically compared to its other neighbors, and that those budgetary restraints reflect themselves in poor facilities and equipment, so much so that other countries like Japan must offer grants to upgrade the country's radar net. Like American schoolteachers, meteorologists do not want to work in such conditions, and as a result there is a meteorologist "brain drain" of talented scientists away from the Philippines and to more prosperous countries, as this article shows. While the regional Typhoon Committee does offer technical assistance in terms of computer models and professional development, such help cannot erase all the problems PAGASA faces overnight.

As for meteorological facts, many bemoaned that PAGASA was slow in upping its wind estimates. Although I agree, when you compare it to HKO, the wind speed estimates provided by the two are not too different.
PAGASA
11pm-140 km/h
5 am-160 km/h
11 am-195 km/h
HKO
8pm-195 km/h
8am-155 km/h
And while PAGASA's pressure estimate may be high, they are not the only agency guilty of ignoring recon data in this quite rare situation.

Neither a watch/warning paradigm (US) or a storm signal paradigm (PAGASA, HKO, etc.) is necessarily better than the other; it all depends on how good the warning dissemination system is. I assume HKO does well enough with its storm signals. I agree that longer lead times and possible simplifications are worthy goals.

I also think that the hourly update initiative is a sign of promising too much in the face of public pressure. Even the NHC only provides hourly updates when a storm is in US radar range. For PAGASA's limited staff, the advantage of positive PR may be offset by less attention to incoming storms.

Storm2K traditionally has a no-bash policy regarding the NHC, and while I think it may be enforced somewhat strongly by the moderators, I do believe in its basic intent and that the policy should be extended to other warning agencies worldwide (i.e., bash the decision, not the agency or forecaster). I understand the frustration with PAGASA's products and think that PAGASA can and should do better, but there's a fine line between constructive criticism and needless invection.
[/soapbox]

i apologize for this somewhat late reply... i was trying this video update for STY Juan (inspired by Rob) and have yet to upload it lol... i don't know if i'm gonna post it here though i was really nervous lol

anyway, yeah i admit that i am one of those that are really vocal about PAGASA... and i apologize for making those remarks, and violating the site's policy... i do agree that PAGASA meteorologists are one of the best in the world... especially those who have been working under the agency for decades now--they are heroes when you think about it... the comments i made earlier were not directed to any specific meteorolgist, but to the agency as a whole.... somehow, i think something within the agency is hindering the "development" of the forecasting so to speak... i forgot that HKO is also issuing signal warnings so maybe it isn't so bad after all... and yeah of course modern equipments will bring much needed improvement...

i realize that this isn't the right forum to talk about a certain agency, much less bash it, so i won't discuss this further.. i apologize to people whom i offended

[Chacor]

AF304 is flying its final planned flight into Megi right now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

i apologize for this somewhat late reply... i was trying this video update for STY Juan (inspired by Rob) and have yet to upload it lol... i don't know if i'm gonna post it here though i was really nervous lol

PH, go ahead and post it, I haft to say this, for any comments or suggestions this forum has to be the best place to get it from. Like at work, I would rather brief several hundred people than briefing a few of my co-workers, because they'll be like, hey what about?.... But it always helps.

[dexterlabio]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Sunday, 17 October 2010 Typhoon "JUAN" has continued to intensify and increased its threat to Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 390 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.5°N, 125.7°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 225 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 260 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday afternoon:
100 km East of Aparri, Cagayan or
50 km Southeast of Laoag City
Tuesday afternoon:
500 km West of Laoag City

Signal No. 4
( >185 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela

Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Batanes
Calayan
Babuyan Group of Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ifugao
Quirino
Northern Aurora

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
La Union
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Rest of Aurora

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Polillo Island

[oaba09]

Look at the area that will be affected by this system(the yellow circle)...

[dexterlabio]

It feels strange, there is a strong thunderstorm right now in Quezon City (Metro Manila), and if you don't know where Megi is going, you would think it is just near your place.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just saw TH on CNN, good update! Way to be the eyes and ears on the ground there during this dangerous storm..

Here is my update for this evening everyone. Stay safe there in the PI.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOtEjC52jqU[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

SIGNAL 4 has been set,

LIVE PAGASA, / sorry in tagalog...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmoV9w6yzvI[/youtube]

[Chacor]

JMA holding at 115 kt. PAGASA is up to 120 kt, which I've not seen them do in a long time.

Very diplomatic with the answer to whether PAGASA were doing any better, TH, you and I both know they underestimated Megi a lot earlier today (but have thankfully caught up).

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA holding at 115 kt. PAGASA is up to 120 kt, which I've not seen them do in a long time.

Very diplomatic with the answer to whether PAGASA were doing any better, TH, you and I both know they underestimated Megi a lot earlier today (but have thankfully caught up).

Ahah...I haven't been following their updates so didn't have enough info to shed light on that. Once this is all over I'll go back over this thread lol.

Going to be a restless night...might try and catch the odd hour's sleep here and there. Once the core nears it's going to be very noisy. Praying for a daylight landfall.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like it should be a day light landfall TH, but the TS winds will be setting in well before then, I hope the structure your in is a decent one.

[Chacor]

JTWC has landfall occurring shortly before 2 pm tomorrow local time. Probably around noon.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Given the speed and distance to land around noon seems right, thats for the eye though typhoon strength winds I think will hit in the morning.

[oaba09]

JTWC has landfall occurring shortly before 2 pm tomorrow local time. Probably around noon.

According to PAGASA, it will be between 6 to 8 AM...Talk about confusing LOL...

[Chacor]

Tropical storm-force winds will make it to land by tonight and typhoon winds probably by 6-8 am, maybe that's what they mean.

[oaba09]

Definitely moving WSW now....Eye is still impressive...

[ricmood]

Definitely moving WSW now....Eye is still impressive...

And way below the projected path. Metro manila still not safe...

[Infdidoll]

Wish I could give you a standing ovation, supercane, for the info you found about how mountainous terrains affect storms. A huge THANK YOU! I've had a busy afternoon, but I am going back to peruse all of it, now. Thank you so very much for sharing your knowledge once again. This is fascinating stuff!

I also agree with you about PAGASA. I was reading about unemployment, problems with the economy of the country and corruption in the government. The government's first and foremost worries don't sound like the occasional hurricane. They can raise signal alerts faster, but where can those deeply entrenched in poverty evacuate to? Most probably know it's coming, but just don't have a way to evacuate. It's always easy to blame the government (as we should know from Katrina), but the real problem is poverty...and the government just can't eradicate that problem overnight. We're comparing PAGASA to well-funded agencies in economically powerful countries and that's probably not fair. Yeah, their forecasting isn't up to speed...but I don't think the high death toll has as much to do with poor notification as it does having a large population who live in what most areas of the world would equate to poverty.

And to Rob - Great update! I really love that you're doing those. I'll have to post your video up on Facebook. I've got worried parents and wives of guys in my husbands' unit contacting me right and left wanting info on if their kids/husbands are okay. I think seeing those updates might help give a better idea of where the storm is hitting and put some minds at ease.

[oaba09]

Wish I could give you a standing ovation, supercane, for the info you found about how mountainous terrains affect storms. A huge THANK YOU! I've had a busy afternoon, but I am going back to peruse all of it, now. Thank you so very much for sharing your knowledge once again. This is fascinating stuff!

I also agree with you about PAGASA. I was reading about unemployment, problems with the economy of the country and corruption in the government. The government's first and foremost worries don't sound like the occasional hurricane. They can raise signal alerts faster, but where can those deeply entrenched in poverty evacuate to? Most probably know it's coming, but just don't have a way to evacuate. It's always easy to blame the government (as we should know from Katrina), but the real problem is poverty...and the government just can't eradicate that problem overnight. We're comparing PAGASA to well-funded agencies in economically powerful countries and that's probably not fair. Yeah, their forecasting isn't up to speed...but I don't think the high death toll has as much to do with poor notification as it does having a large population who live in what most areas of the world would equate to poverty.

And to Rob - Great update! I really love that you're doing those. I'll have to post your video up on Facebook. I've got worried parents and wives of guys in my husbands' unit contacting me right and left wanting info on if their kids/husbands are okay. I think seeing those updates might help give a better idea of where the storm is hitting and put some minds at ease.

Where exactly is your husband right now infidoll?